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evnow
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Posts: 11438
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:20 pm

One more year and 30kwh won't mean much.

If they can, Nissan should get the 2nd gen battery backward compatible. If that is 50 kWh or more, it would have good market take.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

EvieInCA
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:52 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Jul 2015
Leaf Number: 405173

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Mon Oct 05, 2015 4:52 pm

desiv wrote:And, it's in Nissan's best interest to sell new cars, so I'm not sure I see the benefit on their end..


I'd venture an educated guess that Nissan will move a larger inventory of CPO+used LEAFs than new ones next year.

Those cars make their way to auction or dealers to get dispositioned; so yes, Nissan's best interest to keep residual values strong. Spillover benefit is leasing is more attractive with a floor on used that helps them move new.

This is precisely why Nissan is offering $5k+ buyout incentives at lease end - to keep those cars from over-saturating the market.

The #1 issue with used EVs is battery condition. The #1 deficit for the LEAF vs other EVs is range. A new 30 kWh battery in a used LEAF solves both issues, representing an extremely attractive alternative to other efficient cars.

Moreover, the 2017 model is rumored to have even more range/capacity, so there's a differentiator for the new LEAFs inside of 12 months.

gemrough
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2015 5:12 pm
Delivery Date: 17 Sep 2015

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:50 pm

Havent thought of this till now but if I were Nissan, I would take all lease end cars and pull the packs with 11 or 10 bars and install new 30KWh packs in them (or even 24KWh lizards). They would bring a premium at the sales. Then all the old packs could be sent for warranty claims.

Firetruck41
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:21 pm

gemrough wrote:Havent thought of this till now but if I were Nissan, I would take all lease end cars and pull the packs with 11 or 10 bars and install new 30KWh packs in them (or even 24KWh lizards). They would bring a premium at the sales. Then all the old packs could be sent for warranty claims.

It's not free for Nissan, they pay for the warranty... It's cheaper to offer $5k off purchase to the lease holder, as they have been doing, than to spend the $6k (current pack, more $ for the larger pack, no doubt) to put in a new battery.
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

gemrough
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2015 5:12 pm
Delivery Date: 17 Sep 2015

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:29 pm

Firetruck41 wrote:
gemrough wrote:Havent thought of this till now but if I were Nissan, I would take all lease end cars and pull the packs with 11 or 10 bars and install new 30KWh packs in them (or even 24KWh lizards). They would bring a premium at the sales. Then all the old packs could be sent for warranty claims.

It's not free for Nissan, they pay for the warranty... It's cheaper to offer $5k off purchase to the lease holder, as they have been doing, than to spend the $6k (current pack, more $ for the larger pack, no doubt) to put in a new battery.

Selling it $5k cheaper does nothing to the possibility of a warranty claim.

EvieInCA
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:52 pm
Delivery Date: 16 Jul 2015
Leaf Number: 405173

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:23 pm

Except if a new 30kWh battery fetches more than the 24kWh at auction or on dealer lots.

Which it would...

desiv
Posts: 594
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2015 1:10 pm
Delivery Date: 04 Jan 2015
Leaf Number: 018850
Location: Lincoln City, Oregon

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Thu Oct 08, 2015 2:47 pm

EvieInCA wrote:Except if a new 30kWh battery fetches more than the 24kWh at auction or on dealer lots.

Which it would...

But how much more?
Possibly not much for an older car... At least not what it's value is in a new car.
Unless Nissan has a fair amount of profit in those packs at those prices, I'm just not sure it's worth it..

If you were buying a used Leaf, you'd pay more for a new 30kWh pack one over a degraded 24kWh one, but how much more?
Probably not $6k more...

Now, if Nissan can sell the used packs (we heard about possibly uses for the old packs, but??) to off set the cost, maybe..
People might pay $3k more for that...

But again, Nissan doesn't want to discourage the person who might want the 30kWh pack in a new car...

desiv
2012 Leaf SL - Silver (gone - traded in)
2017 Bolt LT - Red

jlsoaz
Posts: 602
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:25 pm

desiv wrote:
EvieInCA wrote:Except if a new 30kWh battery fetches more than the 24kWh at auction or on dealer lots.

Which it would...

But how much more?
Possibly not much for an older car... At least not what it's value is in a new car.
Unless Nissan has a fair amount of profit in those packs at those prices, I'm just not sure it's worth it..

If you were buying a used Leaf, you'd pay more for a new 30kWh pack one over a degraded 24kWh one, but how much more?
Probably not $6k more...

Now, if Nissan can sell the used packs (we heard about possibly uses for the old packs, but??) to off set the cost, maybe..
People might pay $3k more for that...

But again, Nissan doesn't want to discourage the person who might want the 30kWh pack in a new car...

desiv


Here is what I would pay, given my present parameters and driving needs:

used Leaf with pre-Lizard original (used) battery: I would not pay more than $2-3k (especially in Arizona).
used Leaf with new Lizard 24 kWh battery: maybe about $6k.
used Leaf with new Lizard formulation 30 kWh battery (if Nissan would offer this retrofit, which they presently decline to do): $9k
used Leaf with new Lizard formulation 40 kWh battery (for the sake of fantasy): $15k-$20k.
competing new vehicle of any sort, whether leased or financed or paid for in cash: I am (perhaps) not inclined to do this, at this time.

notes:

historically a used-but-reliable vehicle that I can own for a moderate price is usually strongly preferable to me over a new car because I am strongly averse to paying depreciation on a new car. I am happy to pay less for a vehicle which may not look great but suits my needs.
Basically, other than my present Leaf, I have owned used reliable cars purchased for around $5k and (usually) driven for as many miles as I can get out of them.
I would be happy to take this approach with a used BEV but we are not there yet in terms of the used prices coming down and even assuming I compromise and borrow money:
1) the used Leaf is locked into 24 kWh according to Nissan's present policy of only offering a 24 kWh replacement.
2) we are on the verge of dramatically bigger batteries and many more choices which will render "inflexible" BEVs such as the Leaf less valuable, over the long run.
3) for my personal situation, in order for me finally to get into a BEV and get rid of my second gasoline car, I estimate that I need at least (bare minimum) 80 miles of highway (70 mph) range. So, going from 24 kWh to 30 kWh doesn't get that done for me. That's why I put up a seemingly lowball price for a 30 kWh vehicle but also added a hypothetical 40 kWh vehicle. This (a 40 kWh hypothetical new battery on a used BEV) would save me money in allowing me to commit to owning it over many years (perhaps paying for a battery repalcement after another 80k-100k) and getting rid of my gasoline car.

However, on this last point, as to a hypothetical 30 kWh Leaf retrofit (yes, I know, at present Nissan indicates this is not happening, I'm just running through the exercise). I guess I could look at it in a different light in that it would (if done well) be a wonderful alternative to paying the depreciation on a new Kia Soul EV which has about the same range.

The timing isn't right for me on a lot of this (my lease is up in a few months, and I know of no indication that Nissan might consider a 30 kWh retrofit)) and so this is all really just an exercise, but in 5-10 years maybe there will be more choices for me in the used BEV markets. In the meantime, I can look at the used PHEV markets, or revert to gasoline only for awhile, or maybe compromise for another few years and lease or finance a new BEV and throw caution a bit to the wind.

I do understand that what I would pay is not necessarily representative of what others would pay. This is a separate question. I do think part of my answer on that is that there would be plenty of folks out there willing to pay, on average, maybe a bit more than desiv might estimate for good new batteries in used Leafs, and with a decent premium for a higher kWh battery, since that is the single key point (the range, the range, the range, the range) for so many of us.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/vehicle.php?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
josh@jlaz.com
opinions expressed are my own

jlsoaz
Posts: 602
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 12:17 pm

jlsoaz wrote:
Here is what I would pay, given my present parameters and driving needs:

used Leaf with pre-Lizard original (used) battery: I would not pay more than $2-3k (especially in Arizona).
used Leaf with new Lizard 24 kWh battery: maybe about $6k.
used Leaf with new Lizard formulation 30 kWh battery (if Nissan would offer this retrofit, which they presently decline to do): $9k
used Leaf with new Lizard formulation 40 kWh battery (for the sake of fantasy): $15k-$20k.
competing new vehicle of any sort, whether leased or financed or paid for in cash: I am (perhaps) not inclined to do this, at this time.

notes:
[...]


Upon reconsideration, this is all arguably a bit too low. I was trying to take into account that the Leaf battery size is obsolete, or is about to be obsoleted, and that in my particular situation, it was always badly inadequate, to the point of causing me the significant extra expense of having to own another car.

However, I am arguably not crediting enough that, even with these negatives, it's a useful car to have and it is of high value to me to be able not to use gasoline. It's just that the car is not as good a fit for me as for some others, so what I would pay is much lower than what some others would pay.

One thing I would like to emphasize though is that as the number of kWh goes up, the car becomes *much* more useful to me. So, I would assign a high marginal utility to more kWh and would have been glad to back this up with many more dollars. I think I had said on one of the surveys that Nissan sent out that I would have paid a good amount more to lease a higher-kWh Leaf and I still think this way. In the example above, I indicated $3k more for 6 kWh more. If I could (just hypothetically) get over the hump and get 16 kWh more than is presently provided in a theoretical used Leaf with a new 24 kWh battery, and if the BMS and all associated equipment is revised accordingly, then I'd add a premium of about $9k-$14k. For one thing such a car would save me money against having to retain a second car.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/batteries/leaf/vehicle.php?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
josh@jlaz.com
opinions expressed are my own

TaylorSFGuy
Posts: 189
Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:32 pm
Delivery Date: 13 May 2011
Leaf Number: 1561
Location: Kent, Washington

Re: Price to retrofit a used 2011-2015 Leaf with a new 30 kWh (or higher) battery?

Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:53 pm

Let's give Nissan some time to work this out before complaining. They aren't selling the cars with a 30kwh battery through to consumers yet.

It is unreasonable to expect them to have focused on replacement batteries at this point.

I expect something to happen. Those of us that purchased 2011 models expected that a larger replacement battery would be an option in the future. At least I did. It may not be in time for me at less than 55% usable battery capacity.

Many of you are commenting on a situation that is likely years away from being a necessity.

I think we should give Nissan some time to work through this and develop a plan. As time goes by they have an interest to be in the replacement battery business.
Mileage as of May 19, 2016 is 150,000 - 147 GID at 100%

Ordered Jan. 21, 2011 Delivered May 13, 2011

Number of months with highest mileage on Carwings - 23

First LEAF to 100,000 Miles in USA if not worldwide
First non commercial LEAF to 150,000 Miles

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