EvieInCA wrote:Except if a new 30kWh battery fetches more than the 24kWh at auction or on dealer lots.
Which it would...
But how much more?
Possibly not much for an older car... At least not what it's value is in a new car.
Unless Nissan has a fair amount of profit in those packs at those prices, I'm just not sure it's worth it..
If you were buying a used Leaf, you'd pay more for a new 30kWh pack one over a degraded 24kWh one, but how much more?
Probably not $6k more...
Now, if Nissan can sell the used packs (we heard about possibly uses for the old packs, but??) to off set the cost, maybe..
People might pay $3k more for that...
But again, Nissan doesn't want to discourage the person who might want the 30kWh pack in a new car...
Here is what I would pay, given my present parameters and driving needs:
used Leaf with pre-Lizard original (used) battery: I would not pay more than $2-3k (especially in Arizona).
used Leaf with new Lizard 24 kWh battery: maybe about $6k.
used Leaf with new Lizard formulation 30 kWh battery (if Nissan would offer this retrofit, which they presently decline to do): $9k
used Leaf with new Lizard formulation 40 kWh battery (for the sake of fantasy): $15k-$20k.
competing new vehicle of any sort, whether leased or financed or paid for in cash: I am (perhaps) not inclined to do this, at this time.
historically a used-but-reliable vehicle that I can own for a moderate price is usually strongly preferable to me over a new car because I am strongly averse to paying depreciation on a new car. I am happy to pay less for a vehicle which may not look great but suits my needs.
Basically, other than my present Leaf, I have owned used reliable cars purchased for around $5k and (usually) driven for as many miles as I can get out of them.
I would be happy to take this approach with a used BEV but we are not there yet in terms of the used prices coming down and even assuming I compromise and borrow money:
1) the used Leaf is locked into 24 kWh according to Nissan's present policy of only offering a 24 kWh replacement.
2) we are on the verge of dramatically bigger batteries and many more choices which will render "inflexible" BEVs such as the Leaf less valuable, over the long run.
3) for my personal situation, in order for me finally to get into a BEV and get rid of my second gasoline car, I estimate that I need at least (bare minimum) 80 miles of highway (70 mph) range. So, going from 24 kWh to 30 kWh doesn't get that done for me. That's why I put up a seemingly lowball price for a 30 kWh vehicle but also added a hypothetical 40 kWh vehicle. This (a 40 kWh hypothetical new battery on a used BEV) would save me money in allowing me to commit to owning it over many years (perhaps paying for a battery repalcement after another 80k-100k) and getting rid of my gasoline car.
However, on this last point, as to a hypothetical 30 kWh Leaf retrofit (yes, I know, at present Nissan indicates this is not happening, I'm just running through the exercise). I guess I could look at it in a different light in that it would (if done well) be a wonderful alternative to paying the depreciation on a new Kia Soul EV which has about the same range.
The timing isn't right for me on a lot of this (my lease is up in a few months, and I know of no indication that Nissan might consider a 30 kWh retrofit)) and so this is all really just an exercise, but in 5-10 years maybe there will be more choices for me in the used BEV markets. In the meantime, I can look at the used PHEV markets, or revert to gasoline only for awhile, or maybe compromise for another few years and lease or finance a new BEV and throw caution a bit to the wind.
I do understand that what I would pay is not necessarily representative of what others would pay. This is a separate question. I do think part of my answer on that is that there would be plenty of folks out there willing to pay, on average, maybe a bit more than desiv might estimate for good new batteries in used Leafs, and with a decent premium for a higher kWh battery, since that is the single key point (the range, the range, the range, the range) for so many of us.