So I agree that Nissan lost a window by rolling out the 62 pack until this year. It gave them the appearance of being flat footed in the US, though the Leaf is doing very well in other markets at even 40 kWh. Tesla 3 is selling more, but Nissan has not set up scale for the Leaf at the same volumes. Leaf and eNV are selling near or at capacity outside the US.
While I have a E+ (Kia not available in IL and 3 is not our style), I think in this case Nissan/Kia are hurt by the MSRP vs. actual price out the door. If you compare MSRP to MSRP between the Niro, 3 (SR+), and Leaf SV+ they all look very comparable (40ish). Niro and Leaf can go much lower for actual sale prices vs. the Tesla. Additionally, both Niro and Leaf have the full 7500 rebate. Now while the manufacturers know that, most consumers don't see that in their decision. Insurance for the Tesla is also nearly double the other cars.
Ex. Leaf SV + tech MRSP = 41K. SR+ with 41K with delivery, Niro base is also about 40K (each is a bit stronger in different areas). Including federal but not including state discounts which vary, the Leaf drops (for most consumers) to about 30K, the SR+ to 37K and the Niro base to 31K (35K for the premium) as they are not being discounted yet as heavily. the Tesla will likely not depreciate nearly as fast, which is big bonus to them. The Kia isn't available outside of 10 core states, so that gives the Leaf a little wiggle room, but guessing pressure will come in a year once Kia is able to catch up with demand.
Alex on Autos did a nice side by side, and the Kia has the best range of the 3, followed by the Leaf, then the Tesla. All 3 chat groups have multiple accounts of cars exceeding the posted EPA range, so calling it a draw.
All 3 cars are plenty fast, so for many that is not a selling factor.
The Chademo vs. CCS vs. super charger is really only a factor if you plan to take road trips. Any of the 3 work fine for the occasional accelerated charge, but that's it. More Chademo, CCS, and Super Charger stations are going up monthly. The CCS is catching up with Chademo, but both station types are still growing ( . The curve ball out there in terms of standards is the entrance of the Chinese cars, which are joining standards with Chademo for the 400 kWh standard. If they make investments in the US market that could make things a horse race. Without it, Nissan and Mitsubishi won't be enough long term to hold the standard. Leaf, Outlander, and the handful of Toyota/Honda cars only add 20-30K cars a year right now. A number of Tesla users have the adapter, which modestly improves usage in some areas.
Like all things, let's see.
2019 SV Plus Silver
2013 Leaf SV
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87)
Max distance on 13 Leaf: 120 miles
Max distance on 19 Leaf: 242 Highway 4.5 miles/kWh (4.9 KWh remaining)