Is it time for me to buy?

As you can see by my join date I've been lurking for quite a while. Don't want to trouble busy folks with simple questions so I've searched to the best of my ability but don't have all my answers. So if someone will indulge me it would be greatly appreciated.

I reserved a LEAF in 2011 but never bought because I wasn't positive the range then was enough for my commute. So now I'm thinking with the 30KW battery it may be time to buy.
I want the following:
2016 SL or SV, charge package, maybe premium package.

Now the big question: I drive 78-85 miles roundtrip 4 days per week. I cannot charge at work. I live in a moderate climate (southeast VA) flat terrain. Probably no more than 50' elevation difference between work and home. It would be charged via a level 2 EVSE at my house. I'm assuming that I will need to start each day at 100% charge. Speed will be half 45-55mph, about 7 miles at 60-70 and the balance city. Will the above car make my commute summer (with AC on return trip only) and heat in winter? Summers generally are upper 80's days and 60-70* nights. Winters are highs of 50-55* daily and lows around 30* I drive to work at 5am so temp on the way in will be low. Return trip during hottest part of the day.

Will a '16 with the 30K battery do this job year round? Any help is appreciated. I'm looking to buy in the fall after the 18's come out. Hoping to get a good price on a '16.

Thank You,

You should make it based on the information you've provided (travelling at <55MPH is great for economy). Tony's range chart gives 103 miles of range at 65MPH (see http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=4295). Given the bulk of your commute is lower than this you should theoretically have higher range. You may be cutting it fine over winter or may need to economize a little on heater use (although the heat pump heater of the newer models should help a lot). Note that any stop and go traffic at the start of your commute will consume more battery, as you don't get much regenerative brake performance until you drop below ~90% charge level.

Could I suggest the best approach would be to do a test run. Arrange with your dealer for a 36hr test drive. Charge to 100% at home (L1 is fine to top off). Drive to/from work in your normal commute. Be liberal with your use of the heater (worst-case scenario). If you make it with >20% battery remaining, then go for it. If you have less than 10%, the answer is no. If somewhere between, then it becomes marginal and depends on your tolerance for range anxiety! Have a back-up plan in-case you don't make it on the test drive (if you post your route, we can help out identifying charging stations)

20% gives you some reserve for battery capacity degradation into the future, however this should be fairly low given your very mild climate. Degradation appears to be almost exclusively a hot climate phenomena. Do you have undercover parking at work?

Are there any quick-charging stations on your way home? These will add between 3 and 5 miles per minute (depending on the charger). You could afford to stop and charge for a couple of minutes on occasion if you happen to take a long route home, drive somewhere for lunch, or use more heater than expected.

Good luck. It's a great car and if you can make it work you'll save a chunk on both gas and maintenance!

Thanks Aussie for the detailed information. The test run is a great idea. I have looked at plugshare, I would actually be driving past a Nissan dealership on the route. I suppose I could stop in there if the need arises. Is there a problem with charging to 100% all the time? On weekends I could charge less as I drive very little then.

I am no economist but I'm thinking when the '18's hit, with their higher range, the price of the 30KWH battery cars should drop considerably. Maybe I can get a nice off lease local car in the 10K or less range.

Thank you again this is just the information I need.

Concur with the test run idea. I did that with a 2013 S model to see if my 54 mile RT commute would work. It did but I hated not having cruise. Based on my experience here in Tidewater, I would say that a 2016 or better with 30KWH pack will do the job without needing to top off except possibly during our very infrequent snow storms. The Nissan dealer on Western Branch is probably your closest DCFC option. I have used the L2 charging there several times without problems. Not much L2 available past downtown Suffolk toward your place so if you need to top up you would need to decide sooner rather than later.

It is a great car for commuting here in Tidewater and should be great for you. Get the QC for those few times you want to top up on the go. There are times I would like to be able to QC but can't but I got a real good deal on an almost new car so I won't complain.

Just noticed your question about charging to 100%. You will have to do it to make your run with some capacity to spare. I have my charge timer set to end at 6am and have a fully charged car ready for my day every day. I don't bother plugging in on weekends if I don't need the range.

Let me know if you need a car checked with LeafSpy or otherwise need help since I am somewhat local to you.

Muleears said:

Is there a problem with charging to 100% all the time?

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On the 2013+ models you can't charge to anything but 100%. Nissan removed the 80% option to get a higher EPA range figure.

From what I've read I wouldn't be worried at all about charging to 100% daily. Just set the charge timer to finish when you depart (this will help get some warmth into the battery on cold days too), and you'll be fine. Avoid leaving it at high (>90%) or low (<15%) states of charge for extended periods if you can.

Battery degredation seems to be almost exclusively a hot climate phenomena and is heavily related to ambient temperatures. My new Lizard battery lost 8AHr over the most recent Dallas summer, and hasn't lost any capacity since. And I babied it over summer, charging to 80% etc. On the flipside there are plenty of 2011's in the PNW that still have all 12 capacity bars.

I have a route I can take to work that is actually the shortest route at 38 miles (one way) but it is also the slowest. This would keep my speed down to 45 or so for most of the trip with just the last 9 broken down into 6 miles of 65mph and the balance stop and go.

Its good to know you folks think the 30kwh battery would give me sufficient range for my purposes. I'll just need to be sure, if I buy a used one, it has a good battery.

Aussie said:

Muleears said:

Is there a problem with charging to 100% all the time?

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On the 2013+ models you can't charge to anything but 100%. Nissan removed the 80% option to get a higher EPA range figure.

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My 2013 still has the 80% feature. I use it as long as I'm sure I won't need 100%. In 2014 is when they stopped offering it in the USA.

If you want to do this, I think you should lease a new 30 kWh. You should be able to get a good deal on the lease with the competition the Leaf now has with newer EVs. Your commute is likely doable with a fresh battery, the issue is degradation. By leasing you protect yourself in case the range by year 3 is starting to become marginal. If so, you turn in after 3 years. If not, you can choose to extend the lease another year, or if everything seems good you can buy out the car at that point (probably at a significant discount to the stated residual).

I'd be reluctant to buy a used Leaf with the distance you currently have, plus finding a used 30 kWh isn't that easy yet, based on when they first went on sale. Definitely don't buy a used 24 kWh. That would probably end in tears.

Nagorak said:

If you want to do this, I think you should lease a new 30 kWh. You should be able to get a good deal on the lease with the competition the Leaf now has with newer EVs. Your commute is likely doable with a fresh battery, the issue is degradation. By leasing you protect yourself in case the range by year 3 is starting to become marginal. If so, you turn in after 3 years. If not, you can choose to extend the lease another year, or if everything seems good you can buy out the car at that point (probably at a significant discount to the stated residual).

I'd be reluctant to buy a used Leaf with the distance you currently have, plus finding a used 30 kWh isn't that easy yet, based on when they first went on sale. Definitely don't buy a used 24 kWh. That would probably end in tears.

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Thanks Nagorak, I have never leased a car before and hadn't really considered it. It would be nice to have the option of walking away after two or three years. I will need a 20,000 mile per year lease though, wouldn't the payment then be the same as a purchase? I was hoping the two year lease cars (2016's) would be coming off lease this fall. With the competition and introduction of the higher mileage LEAF, I'd think they'd be quite inexpensive (relatively speaking).

You're right with that many miles, the lease would be more expensive. For some reason, it didn't occur to me that you'd be racking up that much mileage. That probably makes leasing less desirable. It might not be that bad though. Assuming you could get at least a 12,000 mile/year lease and the overage charge was 0.15/mile, it would only be an extra $3600. I guess it just depends on what sort of deal you can get. It might be worth at least looking into.

Regarding a Leaf coming off lease, if you can get one for a good enough price, it might be worth it. Only two years old would be a definite plus (also 2015+ has the "lizard battery" which supposedly holds up better). Definitely try to get one with a 30 kWh battery that's in as good shape as possible. Also, if there's a DC quick charger somewhere along your route, then buying a car with a DCFC port would also be a plus. That way if the range is borderline you can at least top up in a relatively short period of time.

I think you can manage your route in a Leaf, it's just there isn't as much extra range left as I'd like . Then again, if you're only traveling at 45-55 mph you'll get better range, so maybe it won't be a problem at all?

I guess one option if you buy used and it doesn't work out, you can always resell the car to recover some of the money. If you get a good price up front then you don't stand to lose that much in that case.

If you get a great lease offer, and plan to buy the car when the lease ends (Leaf residuals are low now) then the odometer mileage doesn't matter. Just keep in kind that it will cost a lot if you don't buy the car. If you are sure you'll buy it, get the lowest mileage lease Nissan offers (10k per year), not the highest.

Thanks LeftieBiker, that's good advice. I will look in to the lease option. With the lease, I will know when I sign what I can buy it for at the end of the lease, correct?

Am I crazy thinking that the fall of this year will see some very low prices on newly off-lease '16's? I figure with the low price of a two year old unit now and the looming introduction of the 200 mile '18 model, no one will want a '16. At least that's what I'm hoping anyway.... Time will tell. Maybe I shouldn't buy one either, but I have all summer to research and decide.

Thanks again, from a former upstate New Yorker. I still get back every summer.

With the lease, I will know when I sign what I can buy it for at the end of the lease, correct?

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Yes, you will know the maximum amount you'd pay. It's called the "residual" in the lease. It could be even less than that, if NMAC offers a discount (to dealers) to buy it when the lease ends. You'd then have to negotiate with dealers to get as much of that discount as possible. Your residual would likely be about $13k, but you'd have to verify that.

Since you are driving fairly slowly you should have a pretty good range, but personally I still wouldn't do it. You're going to be pushing the range every day and could easily run into trouble with:

1. bad weather (say heavy wind and rain) cuts your range by 20-30% one day
2. you want to go somewhere else after work adding 20-30 miles to your day
3. a couple hot summers cut 10% off your battery capacity

In the couple months I've had my leaf the range has swung wildly from >70 miles on a good day, to <40 on a bad day.

I like my leaf a lot, but I wouldn't recommend it to anyone who needs a car to reliably go a long distance on a single charge every day. If you are going to buy a leaf I would recommend a backup car and figuring out some way to charge (even L1) near work if you need to.

bongo2 said:

I like my leaf a lot, but I wouldn't recommend it to anyone who needs a car to reliably go a long distance on a single charge every day. If you are going to buy a leaf I would recommend a backup car and figuring out some way to charge (even L1) near work if you need to.

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I have an ICE car I can drive if I suspect the leaf won't make it. I also have a Nissan dealer along the route where I could grab a quick charge. I have been clocking my miles and average speed for different routes to work for the last few days. The "high speed" route (which includes an 8 mile stretch at 70mph) is 80 miles exactly and I average (according to the cars trip computer) 50 mph. The "low speed" route is only 76 miles and I average 43 mph (with a 5 mile stretch of 70 mph). I would probably tone down the 70 mph stretches to 60 in the LEAF. Do you still think it won't do it with the 30kwh battery?

It sounds like it would probably work most days (maybe every day) but it depends on how motivated you are and your tolerance for risk and inconvenience. Do you want to have to think each day, "hmmm heavy rain forecast today, so my range might be too low for the leaf"? Do you want to have to go out of your way and make a 20 min stop to quick charge if you miscalculate? Are you willing to be unable to go run an errand because you don't have any spare range? Are you willing to possibly (I don't know how likely) have a car in two years that won't make it anymore, or will only make it in the best weather? If it doesn't work and you have to sell it at a huge loss how will you feel? If those things don't bother you too much then it's probably a good gamble. In fact it might work much better than I'm suggesting. The averages are just that and many people do better. I would get the longest most representative test drive that you can to give you the best guess as you your personal range. Then I would only buy if that test drive gave me a reasonable margin of safety (maybe 20%). The upside is that you will be saving a lot more money on gas than most of us!

I bought a 30 KWh 2016 Leaf S about a month ago and I live less than 100 miles North of you so we have similar weather. The last real cold snap we had last weekend (around 20 degF Sunday morning) I had the heat going and I took a trip ~60 mile round trip way down I-95 at 65-70 mph (hostly highway speed), That was the worst day for range for me so far but my mileage for that trip was equivalent of around 95 miles from 100% to 0%.

I have the S with the worse heater than the SV and SL. (Almost got an SV for this reason, but in the end I couldn't justify the price difference when I don't need that kind of range every day.)

So with a new battery in bad winter conditions on a 30 KWh I think you will definitely see > 90 miles range. Especially with the heat pump.

On days like today when it was mid-60s I get around 120-125 miles equivalent. I never drive in Eco or B mode, turning those on might eek out another 10+ miles.

Bongo2 makes the very valid points that I would need to consider. These are the very reasons I didn't buy the LEAF I reserved in 2011. I still have the same commute (80 mi. RT) I suppose realistically speaking I should consider the commute 85 miles as some days I will go out to lunch or run a short errand. I do have the Nissan dealer virtually on the way home but I need to consider (as bongo2 points out) the time involved. Its only 5 minutes out of my way but another 30 for the 80% charge. That is if the quick charger is open and operational.

In general I suppose these are all things every LEAF owner must weigh. I also need to consider the savings benefit (again as bongo2 pointed out). Currently my ICE get about 35 mpg. I would sell my ICE if I buy a LEAF. When the need arises I could drive my wife's car which also gets about 35 mpg. I could also consider an old beater to keep in instances where I need an ICE.

twentysixteen: was your car new when you purchased it or did it have some miles? If used, did you still have all 12 bars? I don't think it gets hot enough here, for long enough, to be a serious threat to our batteries. So I would hope degradation to be slow.

Will needing to be charged to 100% 4 days per week contribute to early degradation?

Thanks again to all for the advice.

Will needing to be charged to 100% 4 days per week contribute to early degradation?

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Not if you set an end timer to finish the charge an hour or so before you leave, and avoid charging it when it has more than six temp bars showing.

Thanks LeftieBiker, that's good to know. I leave for work at 5am so charging will take place during the coolest part of the day.