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abasile
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:31 am

Zythryn wrote:Even in CA, the overcrowding is not state wide.

A bit over a week ago, while returning from the San Diego area, we charged our new-to-us Model S for 27 minutes at the Temecula Superchargers. There are ten stalls, and yet ours was the only car present. (Even with our older "A" battery pack, we picked up 112 miles of EPA-rated range during that time and made it back to our mountain home with a very comfortable margin.)

We've also stopped by the Lone Pine SCs along US 395 a couple of times (prior to acquiring our Model S) and both times found them completely empty.

For those of us in California whose idea of "long distance travel" is something other than driving I-5 between LA/OC and SF or SD, or within one of the big metro areas, it appears that the SC network has plenty of capacity. The Barstow SCs (between LA/OC and Vegas) also see a lot of use, but this only seems to be an issue during peak weekend times.

This isn't to say that Tesla doesn't need to work hard to increase SC capacity along heavy-use corridors. They really need to prioritize this. But for those of us who like to take trips away from the big cities, the appeal of the SC network is greater than ever.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:14 am

abasile wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Even in CA, the overcrowding is not state wide.

...For those of us in California whose idea of "long distance travel" is something other than driving I-5 between LA/OC and SF or SD, or within one of the big metro areas, it appears that the SC network has plenty of capacity...

Yes, most of the "free...forever" SCs are currently under-utilized.

I have passed the Corning CA site ~ a dozen times (on about half of those trips stopping for hours of AC charging right across the street) and (IIRC) have only seen a total of two Teslas at the site, in all those trips.

This is likely not only because most Tesla owners rarely make long trips up I-5 by car, but because when they do, many choose to drive their ICEVs in preference to their Teslas.

The overcrowding problem, however, will both increase and shift outward, as Tesla's depreciate and pass into the hands of second and third owners at ever-depreciating prices.

Those who paid ~$50,000 (used) for their Teslas will tend to find "free...forever" charging more appealing than those who originally paid ~$100,000 for the same car.

In the near future, when you can pick up a used Tesla for ~$25,000, the option of avoiding another $20 to $40 dollars on your home electricity bill per each charge, by using nearby "free...forever" sites, will probably seem like a very good idea...
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:54 pm

Are you serious? Tesla drivers prefer their ICE when traveling I-5? Okay, I can make things up too.

That really made my day, though. Thanks for the laugh.

Please continue.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:22 pm

finman100 wrote:Are you serious? Tesla drivers prefer their ICE when traveling I-5? Okay, I can make things up too.

That really made my day, though. Thanks for the laugh.

Please continue.


I got a chuckle over that comment as well.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:26 pm

finman100 wrote:Are you serious? Tesla drivers prefer their ICE when traveling I-5?...

I'm, sure there are many more reasons, but just to list a few:

I expect many Tesla owners also own larger and/or more luxurious ICEVs that they might prefer to drive.

If you are in a hurry, even a ~$15,000 ICEV is superior to a ~$150,000 Tesla on a long freeway trip.

If you are towing, a Tesla is useless.

And, back on-topic:

...I take my ICE when I drive to the Bay Area because I can't do the round trip without charging, but Fremont, MtView, Dublin have become virtually unusable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/co ... h=b16c9165
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abasile
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 4:06 pm

edatoakrun wrote:The overcrowding problem, however, will both increase and shift outward, as Tesla's depreciate and pass into the hands of second and third owners at ever-depreciating prices.

Those who paid ~$50,000 (used) for their Teslas will tend to find "free...forever" charging more appealing than those who originally paid ~$100,000 for the same car.

In the near future, when you can pick up a used Tesla for ~$25,000, the option of avoiding another $20 to $40 dollars on your home electricity bill per each charge, by using nearby "free...forever" sites, will probably seem like a very good idea...

Maybe, but if the number of Model S/X cars on the road is dwarfed by the Model 3 as hoped for, then this will be a comparatively minor problem. Regardless of the types of SC payment models chosen for the Model 3, of course, Tesla will need to redouble its efforts to expand the capacity of the SC network.

In our case, having paid less than half the original, pre-incentive price for our Model S (not at all surprising at almost four years old and 73K miles), it's still very much the growing extent of the SC network, vice the fact that it's "free", that we find so appealing. I mean, we can drive on SCs right up to the gate of Yellowstone National Park, for crying out loud!
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GRA
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Wed Oct 19, 2016 4:28 pm

abasile wrote:In our case, having paid less than half the original, pre-incentive price for our Model S (not at all surprising at almost four years old and 73K miles), it's still very much the growing extent of the SC network, vice the fact that it's "free", that we find so appealing. I mean, we can drive on SCs right up to the gate of Yellowstone National Park, for crying out loud!

OT, FYI Jackson, Wyoming opened yesterday. Groveland is moving along too, although I'd think you're more likely to come up the east side on 395. Oh, and congrats on the S!
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abasile
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:30 am

GRA wrote:OT, FYI Jackson, Wyoming opened yesterday. Groveland is moving along too, although I'd think you're more likely to come up the east side on 395. Oh, and congrats on the S!

It's still great to have options. And thanks!
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edatoakrun
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:26 am

abasile wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:The overcrowding problem, however, will both increase and shift outward, as Tesla's depreciate and pass into the hands of second and third owners at ever-depreciating prices.

Those who paid ~$50,000 (used) for their Teslas will tend to find "free...forever" charging more appealing than those who originally paid ~$100,000 for the same car.

In the near future, when you can pick up a used Tesla for ~$25,000, the option of avoiding another $20 to $40 dollars on your home electricity bill per each charge, by using nearby "free...forever" sites, will probably seem like a very good idea...

Maybe, but if the number of Model S/X cars on the road is dwarfed by the Model 3 as hoped for, then this will be a comparatively minor problem.

...it's still very much the growing extent of the SC network, vice the fact that it's "free", that we find so appealing...

From its inception, "free...forever" has been structured as a pyramid scheme.

Yes, if Tesla is able to sell large numbers of BEVs in the future to owners who are willing to make large payments for access to the sites, then the losses it has taken and will continue to take, on drivers like yourself, may be manageable.

Success will depend to a large extent on how soon Tesla ends "free...forever" to new buyers, as every BEV it sells with "free...forever" is an additional future liability.

As I have said previously, I think Tesla's plan to allow the first ~million Tesla buyers "free...forever" is unsustainable, as it is unlikely to ever sell enough BEVs and also convince the buyers to pay enough for charge site access in the future, to support so top-heavy a pyramid.
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Re: Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

Fri Oct 21, 2016 5:51 pm

edatoakrun wrote:From its inception, "free...forever" has been structured as a pyramid scheme.
No, it was in part a marketing expense (some car companies actually spend gigantic amounts of money on advertising instead — I think Tesla's marketing expenditures are much more useful). The idea was to change the perception of EVs as limited range local commuter cars, which it did: the Supercharger network was a paradigm shift in EV utility.
Yes, if Tesla is able to sell large numbers of BEVs in the future to owners who are willing to make large payments for access to the sites, then the losses it has taken and will continue to take, on drivers like yourself, may be manageable.

Success will depend to a large extent on how soon Tesla ends "free...forever" to new buyers, as every BEV it sells with "free...forever" is an additional future liability.

As I have said previously, I think Tesla's plan to allow the first ~million Tesla buyers "free...forever" is unsustainable, as it is unlikely to ever sell enough BEVs and also convince the buyers to pay enough for charge site access in the future, to support so top-heavy a pyramid.
Well, I can't recall if it was mentioned in this thread but the Model 3 will have a pay-per-use option. My sense from reading many comments from prospective "3" buyers is that this approach will be more popular than a one time unlimited use option.

This suggests that Tesla won't have anything close to a million cars on the free forever plan. Regardless, the cost of providing the service to perhaps 200-300k cars, with unlimited access, is fairly small (only a tiny proportion of their miles, on average, will be from Superchargers). The $2000 per car fee for Supercharger access for the life of the car — whether paid directly or as part of the price of the car — provides a lot of capital for building and maintaining the network. The network will get additional revenue from the PPU charge paid by Model 3 drivers. My guess is that the unlimited access option for the Model 3 will be time-limited or linked to the owner, not something that runs with the car as with the current Model S and X. If so, it could be a continuing source of revenue for the system as the car changes hands. Just speculation on my part, though. Anyway, I don't expect many Model 3 buyers to choose this option because PPU will be less expensive for most.


Perhaps you will be correct and the Supercharger network will collapse and Tesla will go bankrupt, as you so fervently wish (based on the tone of your hundreds of posts on the subject). I'm hoping otherwise and can think of several other scenarios that will allow both the Supercharger network and Tesla to survive in one form or another.


Eventually I expect that QC stations will become so common along highways that the presence of a proprietary network will become unnecessary. Five years ago, in the early LEAF days, I wouldn't have even guessed that 2000 mile EV road trips would have been possible, much less downright easy and routine. Nowadays I get the sense that EVs really will start to supplant much of the ICEV market by 2030, something I would have thought was wildly optimistic back then. QC stations may well become as common as gas stations are now.

We shall see.
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