AndyH
Well-known member
Thoughts from the brains?
:shock:
:shock:
AndyH said:Thanks evnow. The first thought I had was about shipping thru the canal - I have no idea how much oil might go that way and how risk analysts and/or shipping/oil companies might adjust to stay clear of a perceived problem area.
I paid $3.80 at one spot just a couple weeks ago along CA395mwalsh said:$4 a gallon by summer? $4 a gallon by the end of next month if this movement spreads into Saudi Arabia and Kuwait! :shock:
That's nothing - I paid about $6/gallon on the stretch of PCH just north of Morrow Bay at the Ragged Point Inn and thought it was a bargain! By that time the gas light had been on for at least 20 miles (whoops!), so I put $20 in it - enough to get the Prius to some reasonably priced gas! Very beautiful drive, though.smkettner said:I paid $3.80 at one spot just a couple weeks ago along CA395
The violent protests in Egypt pushed both crude-oil and gold prices higher, as investors fled risky assets but acknowledged the Mideast country's proximity to larger oil producers.
Benchmark crude-oil futures surged 4.3% to settle at $89.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-day jump for Nymex crude since September 2009, in both percentage and dollar terms.
Egypt produces about 673,000 barrels of oil a day, according to the Joint Oil Data Initiative, a database, ranking it 21st among the world's oil producers.
More importantly, the country is home to two of the world's key energy supply routes: the Suez Canal, a transit point for oil and fuel shipments from the Persian Gulf to the Western Hemisphere, and the 200-mile-long Sumed pipeline, an alternative transit route to the canal.
About 1.8 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products were shipped through the Suez Canal in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Sumed pipeline carried 1.1 million barrels a day that year.
More worrisome than disruptions to Egypt's oil production is the prospect that the unrest spreads to other hard-line states in the region, such as Libya and Algeria, both members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Other countries in the region, including Tunisia and Yemen, have been wracked by antigovernment protests in recent weeks, though neither is a major oil producer.
"If this thing spreads across the North African continent, gets into Libya, Algeria, then you've got trouble," said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report energy newsletter.
What level of unrest do you think it would take for Congress to take action?Herm said:if things really get out of control congress will take action and institute rationing and price controls.. they will probably forbid the exportation of domestically produced oil.. I believe we produce enough oil to handle a 4 gallons per week ration of gasoline.. dont remember if its per car or per family. Priority would be given to over-the-road trucking, and we would see lots of NG conversions... Fat from polar bears would be rendered to be used as bio-diesel.
From: Team Pickens [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2011 11:38 AM
To:
Subject: Unrest in Egypt and Imported Oil
Army:
T. Boone Pickens' long-standing warnings that our addiction to OPEC oil is a national security issue has attracted new attention as the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt threaten to spread to the oil producing nations of Nigeria, Angola and Algeria.
In the National Journal, reporter Amy Harder quoted Boone as saying:
"Nothing has happened that I've seen that has cut down on the availability of oil," oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens told National Journal Daily on Monday. "But the uncertainty has obviously crept into the market."
So, Harder asks, "what's got the oil traders all worked up?"
"They think it could go to the ultimate conclusion and that is that Saudi Arabia could be overthrown," Pickens said. "And that's the largest supply of oil in the world." Saudi Arabia shipped 367 million barrels of oil to the United States in 2009.
Harder points out that to reduce America's exposure to unrest in unstable countries and regions, "the transportation sector needs to be weaned off oil, increasing public transportation, shifting to electric vehicles, and, if Pickens had his way, natural gas engines for large trucks."
Also on Tuesday morning, reporter Darren Goode from the "Morning Energy Report" of Politico.com also talked to Boone:
WHAT EGYPT MEANS TO T. BOONE - Pickens thinks the situation in Egypt could get worse - a lot worse - for crude oil and gas prices and that reinforces his message to wean ourselves off of foreign oil imports. "We've already said that something like this was likely to happen and it has," Pickens told POLITICO's Darren Goode yesterday. "If it's not now, that civil unrest will happen again."
He said the problem is not so much what happens in Egypt but whether civil unrest expands to more prominent Middle Eastern oil nations. "You're seeing a dry run of sorts with unrest in countries like Tunisia and Egypt that are not big on the oil market," he said. "And you better watch close because the next one may be Algeria or Libya or God forbid Saudi Arabia." "And if that happens," he said, "you're really going to have a mess on your hands."
- Team Pickens
Absolutely. As someone said - the price of any stock / commodity is a reflection of investor's greed & fear.AndyH said:And yet the price of oil doesn't need an actual overthrow to provide chaos - just the fear of overthrow puts the market into defensive mode. Wheeeeee....
You're probably right. But I wouldn't put it past radical Islamists to sabotage oil infrastructure.evnow said:In anycase, even if SA royal family falls, it is not like the oil will stop flowing.
If the theory holds, then governments like these — and not oil-rich ones like Libya, Algeria, or the states of the Arabian Peninsula — are more likely to be the next to fall.
Or anyone else wanting to take advantage of widespread dislike for Islamists...abasile said:You're probably right. But I wouldn't put it past radical Islamists to sabotage oil infrastructure.evnow said:In anycase, even if SA royal family falls, it is not like the oil will stop flowing.
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