GRA
Posts: 9742
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

GCC: Distance driven in the United States: Did we reach the peak in 2004?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:08 pm

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/02/20190205-sivak.html

The focus here is on distance driven per person and per household, as opposed to the absolute distance driven (which depends, in part, on the continuously increasing size of the U.S. population). The period covered is 1984 through 2017. . . .

The main findings (summarized in the table below) are as follows:

    Distance driven per person increased by 40.9% from 1984 to 2004 (from 6,612 miles to 9,314 miles), then decreased by 9.1% by 2013 (to 8,468 miles), and then increased by 4.3% by 2017 (to 8,834 miles).

    Analogously, distance driven per household increased by 33.4% from 1984 to 2004 (from 18,256 miles to 24,349 miles), then decreased by 10.2% by 2013 (to 21,866 miles), and then increased by 4.3% by 2017 (to 22,796 miles).

In conclusion:

    Distance driven per person and per household have both reached their maxima in 2004.

    Both rates are on a rebound since 2013, but they are still down from 2004 (by 5.2% per person and by 6.4% per household).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1987
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: GCC: Distance driven in the United States: Did we reach the peak in 2004?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:24 pm

Certainly a local maximum. A global maximum over all time? It's laughable to say we can make that claim today.

With self-driving cars on the horizon, we could be in for a huge leap in miles driven "per person". Picture car sharing. Self-driving cars drive without passengers in between passenger-carrying trips. All of those miles must be distributed among the people who are sharing the car.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
Posts: 9742
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCC: Distance driven in the United States: Did we reach the peak in 2004?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:04 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Certainly a local maximum. A global maximum over all time? It's laughable to say we can make that claim today.

With self-driving cars on the horizon, we could be in for a huge leap in miles driven "per person". Picture car sharing. Self-driving cars drive without passengers in between passenger-carrying trips. All of those miles must be distributed among the people who are sharing the car.

Yes, AVs will undoubtedly boost VMT, and no one is claiming that world VMT is decreasing, not with China and India both expanding car sales.

the only way to control VMT on single-passenger AVs is through restrictions on where they can operate, or else congestion charges.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1987
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: GCC: Distance driven in the United States: Did we reach the peak in 2004?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:33 pm

GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Certainly a local maximum. A global maximum over all time? It's laughable to say we can make that claim today.

With self-driving cars on the horizon, we could be in for a huge leap in miles driven "per person". Picture car sharing. Self-driving cars drive without passengers in between passenger-carrying trips. All of those miles must be distributed among the people who are sharing the car.

Yes, AVs will undoubtedly boost VMT, and no one is claiming that world VMT is decreasing, not with China and India both expanding car sales.

the only way to control VMT on single-passenger AVs is through restrictions on where they can operate, or else congestion charges.

I never said anyone was claiming that. What is being claimed is that VMT per capita peaked in 2004. I doubt that claim will pass the test of time.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
Posts: 9742
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCC: Distance driven in the United States: Did we reach the peak in 2004?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:39 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Certainly a local maximum. A global maximum over all time? It's laughable to say we can make that claim today.

With self-driving cars on the horizon, we could be in for a huge leap in miles driven "per person". Picture car sharing. Self-driving cars drive without passengers in between passenger-carrying trips. All of those miles must be distributed among the people who are sharing the car.

Yes, AVs will undoubtedly boost VMT, and no one is claiming that world VMT is decreasing, not with China and India both expanding car sales.

the only way to control VMT on single-passenger AVs is through restrictions on where they can operate, or else congestion charges.

I never said anyone was claiming that. What is being claimed is that VMT per capita peaked in 2004. I doubt that claim will pass the test of time.

Depends on the Millenials. If they chose a single person AV instead of walking/biking mass transit, then VMT will undoubtedly go up unless artificially constrained as above. Lower cost of driving = more driving.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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