Hybrid Car Owners Not Likely To Buy Another Hybrid

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adric22

Well-known member
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I'm pretty sure most people here have seen the article:

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-repeat-hybrid-car-buyers-20120409,0,416214.story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, I'd like to place a different spin on the statistics.

They say that "only 35%" of buyers will buy another hybrid.

Currently the new car market for hybrids is around 2%.

So we could use those same statics and say this:

"Hybrid owners are 17 times more likely to buy a hybrid than the rest of the population."
 
Remember the old adages:
"There are statistics and then there are damn statistics."
"To lie really well requires statistics."
adric22 said:
"Hybrid owners are 17 times more likely to buy a hybrid than the rest of the population."
Click to expand...
 
I'm not a statistician, but I've been working around them for the past 6 years. The first thing I noticed about this "study" is it didn't state which car was being replaced. Were the buyers replacing the hybrid, or keeping the hybrid and replacing another car? I mean, once you have a hybrid as your daily commuter and grocery-getter, you probably don't need another one.

OBTW, the Toyota Prius (all models) was the 6th best-selling vehicle last month:
Top 10 cars for March 2012
 
Notice also that 50-60% of Honda and Toyota hybrid owners would by another. And since they are the majority of the hybrid market, where else can you find that kind of return business? I'm not really up one who makes a hybrid today, but I'm pretty sure the others don't get very good gas mileage. If you can't get 50+mpg, why buy a hybrid? I can get a cheaper ICE that gets 30-40 mpg.

Reddy.
 
Interesting article.

Quite the opposite for me. Bought a hybrid, liked it, bought a second hybrid and like it.

Will buy something with lots of batteries going forward - hybrid or EV.
 
Reddy said:
Notice also that 50-60% of Honda and Toyota hybrid owners would by another. And since they are the majority of the hybrid market, where else can you find that kind of return business? I'm not really up one who makes a hybrid today, but I'm pretty sure the others don't get very good gas mileage. If you can't get 50+mpg, why buy a hybrid? I can get a cheaper ICE that gets 30-40 mpg.

Reddy.
Click to expand...
We Priuschatters found the story very dubious (discussion at http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-ev-alt-fuel-news/106828-dubious-polk-study-only-35-hybrid-vehicle-owners-choose-purchase-hybrid-again.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) esp. given CR's findings at http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/cr-recommended/would-you-buy-that-car-again/best-and-worst-models/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (you may need a subscription to see that page) which puts the Prius at 85% when asked "Considering all factors (price, reliability, comfort, enjoyment, etc.), would you get this car if you had it to do all over again?" It was in the top 4 of fuel efficient hatchbacks in the most satisfying section.

In the past, the Prius had the highest numbers to the above question amongst ALL cars for 5+ years in a row in CR with scores in the 90s.

As for "I can get a cheaper ICE that gets 30-40 mpg", go to http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/powerSearch.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and search for diesel or gasoline powered with MY 2012-2013 then search for combined mileage >=40 mpg. There are 0 non-hybrids. If you change that to 35, the only non-hybrids and non-PHEVs are the 2-seater Smart ForTwo and the '12 VW Passat diesel w/6-speed manual.

The "40 mpg" ICE non-hybrids get ~40 mpg on the EPA highway test and FAR lower numbers for city and combined mileage. Often, you have to pay for more expensive trim levels or get them w/manual transmissions. Not everyone lives and works on a highway. Many that travel on highways have to do so in rush hour w/tons of stop and go and tons of idling, which is nothing like the EPA highway test and more closely resembles city driving.
 
Actually I thought 35% was pretty good! Its just the slant that CNN and others had to add to it, that "perhaps it was because they weren't getting the mpg they expected". :roll: If they don't know the answer why, they shouldn't conjecture, IMO. Perhaps it was because many, like me, got an EV this time instead. How's that for conjecture? :D
People's needs change, the economy has changed, making it tougher for people to be able to spend a little extra for a hybrid, gas prices dropped, leading many to go back to their hoggish ways, etc...lots of reasons in my opinion, but I really doubt "because they weren't getting the mpg they expected" was anywhere near the top of the list.
 
cwerdna said:
Reddy said:
Notice also that 50-60% of Honda and Toyota hybrid owners would by another. And since they are the majority of the hybrid market, where else can you find that kind of return business? I'm not really up one who makes a hybrid today, but I'm pretty sure the others don't get very good gas mileage. If you can't get 50+mpg, why buy a hybrid? I can get a cheaper ICE that gets 30-40 mpg.

Reddy.
Click to expand...
We Priuschatters found the story very dubious (discussion at http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-ev-alt-fuel-news/106828-dubious-polk-study-only-35-hybrid-vehicle-owners-choose-purchase-hybrid-again.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) esp. given CR's findings at http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/cr-recommended/would-you-buy-that-car-again/best-and-worst-models/index.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (you may need a subscription to see that page) which puts the Prius at 85% when asked "Considering all factors (price, reliability, comfort, enjoyment, etc.), would you get this car if you had it to do all over again?" It was in the top 4 of fuel efficient hatchbacks in the most satisfying section.

In the past, the Prius had the highest numbers to the above question amongst ALL cars for 5+ years in a row in CR with scores in the 90s.

As for "I can get a cheaper ICE that gets 30-40 mpg", go to http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/powerSearch.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and search for diesel or gasoline powered with MY 2012-2013 then search for combined mileage >=40 mpg. There are 0 non-hybrids. If you change that to 35, the only non-hybrids and non-PHEVs are the 2-seater Smart ForTwo and the '12 VW Passat diesel w/6-speed manual.

The "40 mpg" ICE non-hybrids get ~40 mpg on the EPA highway test and FAR lower numbers for city and combined mileage. Often, you have to pay for more expensive trim levels or get them w/manual transmissions. Not everyone lives and works on a highway. Many that travel on highways have to do so in rush hour w/tons of stop and go and tons of idling, which is nothing like the EPA highway test and more closely resembles city driving.
Click to expand...
Sorry to sound so negative in my previous post. I'm actually quite positive on hybrids that improve mileage (like Prius and Insight). They really do make sense for lots of people's driving (just not mine). However, I still get stupid arguments from people who say hybrids aren't any good on the freeway so they will keep driving their 20 mpg guzzler :? . I think the people who buy other hybrids, might have been expecting to see a huge gas savings but are disappointed because the mpg difference is minimal. Case in point, there are a number of hybrids out that "increase performance" but provide minimal mgp improvement. So my main point was: if a person buys a hybrid to save on gas (and that would be my main reason), and the chosen hybrid doesn't provide a significant improvement, then sure, they might blame it on hybrids and not their poor choice of one. Prius and Insight owners, on the other hand, "chose wisely", and will return to choose again.

Full disclosure: I was very close to buying a Prius, but waited for the Leaf since 95+% of my driving is <20 mi in town. I probably would have bought a PIP, even with 10 mi range, had it been available before the Leaf. Hey, read that again Toyota!! The 1st, mass-market, low cost EV got my $$$. Now I'm hooked and won't be going back. Sorry, you're too late.

Reddy
 
adric22 said:
They say that "only 35%" of buyers will buy another hybrid.
Click to expand...
I guess my family is a bunch of weirdos. After experiencing our GenII Prius, our family has had nothing but Hybrids. After the Prius we bought a Hybrid Highlander (which my son now owns), traded in our 2004 Prius in for 2011 (which my daughter now drives at college). Now we drive a LEAF (and use ZipCar if we need an ICE). However we've only had Toyota's which are the best performing Hybrids, most of the other brands do not have much of a mileage boost, the exception being the Ford Fusion.

Perhaps those who bought Escape's, Saturns, and even the Toyota Camry, didn't notice visiting gas stations less often and thought the $3k premium wasn't worth it (which I would agree with).
 
padamson1 said:
I guess my family is a bunch of weirdos. After experiencing our GenII Prius, our family has had nothing but Hybrids. After the Prius we bought a Hybrid Highlander (which my son now owns), traded in our 2004 Prius in for 2011 (which my daughter now drives at college). Now we drive a LEAF (and use ZipCar if we need an ICE).
Click to expand...
Similar here. My brother bought a gen 3 Prius, my sister bought one too about the same time. A year later I go my Leaf. My other brother would like to have a Prius (can't afford it). My sister is looking at an electric car when another car is needed. Her Chevy Suburban only gets pulled out for special occasions, like when kids are back for vacation with their significant others and need something for 7-8 passengers.
 
No, you cannot use those same statistics to say that. Not legitimately, anyway, because those statistics say nothing about what what the rest of the population (current non-hybrid owners) are likely to buy when they make their next purchase.


adric22 said:
I'm pretty sure most people here have seen the article:

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-repeat-hybrid-car-buyers-20120409,0,416214.story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

However, I'd like to place a different spin on the statistics.

They say that "only 35%" of buyers will buy another hybrid.

Currently the new car market for hybrids is around 2%.

So we could use those same statics and say this:

"Hybrid owners are 17 times more likely to buy a hybrid than the rest of the population."
Click to expand...
 
Yodrak said:
No, you cannot use those same statistics to say that. Not legitimately, anyway, because those statistics say nothing about what what the rest of the population (current non-hybrid owners) are likely to buy when they make their next purchase.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how you can say that. There are plenty of studies showing what the current market is for hybrid vehicles. While not necessarily part of the study being quoted by the media, it is a well established number.
 
the WSDOT report http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/09694F96-EB24-499B-8ACE-88D895DA215D/0/HybridReportApril15th2011.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

states that Palm Beach Fl lead in "rebuying hybrids" at 41% interesting hotbed location for that and that hybrids were 3.8% of the market.

so if 35% are buying a 2nd hybrid and only 3.8% of new car sales are hybrids, we have to keep in mind that is a great turnaround number.

this information is really next to useless. this does not break down multi-car households needs nor whether the hybrid was replaced by a non hybrid or augmented by a non hybrid.

what about me? i sold a hybrid to get an EV. does that mean i am in the 65% although i still have a hybrid?

Moderator; close the thread and delete it. it is perpetuating FUD
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Moderator; close the thread and delete it. it is perpetuating FUD
Click to expand...

Let's have us a good ol' book burning party while we're at it!

This article ran on major media outlets and is worthy of discussion, if not debunking, and certainly doesn't meet the editorial standard for censorship.

All that aside, it would be interesting to see more data on what people are trading for. This new breed of 40mpg cars is certainly giving the gas-electric hybrid a run for its money. It's easy to forget MPG is inverse of cost, and payback from 40 to 50 is pretty low weighed against the higher purchase price.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Moderator; close the thread and delete it. it is perpetuating FUD
Click to expand...

Let's have us a good ol' book burning party while we're at it!

This article ran on major media outlets and is worthy of discussion, if not debunking, and certainly doesn't meet the editorial standard for censorship.

All that aside, it would be interesting to see more data on what people are trading for. This new breed of 40mpg cars is certainly giving the gas-electric hybrid a run for its money. It's easy to forget MPG is inverse of cost, and payback from 40 to 50 is pretty low weighed against the higher purchase price.
Click to expand...


and that is what car manufacturers and Big Oil wants you to think. in the same WSDOT report

The Center for Automotive Research (ingeniously known as CAR) in Ann Arbor,
Michigan is cancelling their 2012 electric car conference due to lack of interest Automotive News
(Rogers, March 30, 2012) blogged. The conference has been around since 2009 and got business
together to work on plug-in issues. Brett Smith
2
, the conference organizer, says that while the
cancellation could be construed that electric cars are dead, car companies want to look at a wider
range of alternative power technology.

problem is that @ $4 gas, my weighted performance on the Leaf is 160 MPG. now i have cheaper rates than "some" i pay 10 cents per K which seems to be what most of the country pays so that is a bit better than 40 mpg and a LOT cleaner and sustainable.

but gas drivers are lucky because of current subsidies that help drive down the price of gas to its $4 bargain.

so i can only say; Moderator!! delete his post and ban him!!
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
so i can only say; Moderator!! delete his post and ban him!!
Click to expand...
Ban WHO? The original poster? That would be me. I've been a long-time contributor to this forum and have never posted anything worthy of having me banned. If anything, sounds like you are the one that should be banned for stirring up trouble.
LTLFTcomposite said:
All that aside, it would be interesting to see more data on what people are trading for. This new breed of 40mpg cars is certainly giving the gas-electric hybrid a run for its money. It's easy to forget MPG is inverse of cost, and payback from 40 to 50 is pretty low weighed against the higher purchase price.
Click to expand...
I hear this argument a lot. I agree, absolutely, that the consumer has been brainwashed into believing a chevy cruze that gets 40 mpg highway is just as good as a Prius. However, there is a significant difference. HUGE difference. The biggest difference being that few people actually put "highway" miles on their car. I'd bet 95% of driving is city driving style, even if you happen to be ON a highway due to the traffic. Which means the Prius is still going to get probably twice the gas mileage of a Cruze in realistic driving conditions.

Another thing to consider are all of the ways in which a hybrid saves gas that you might not consider. For example, when the Prius has a cold engine, it will attempt to use more battery power until the engine warms up. Not only that, but the Prius is designed to heat the engine and cat up faster than a regular car (although achieved differently on 2nd gen than on 3rd gen) So the Prius will get good gas mileage within a mile or two of driving where a regular gas car might take twice that long. That isn't calculated into fuel economy figures, but affects people in real life. You can bet that a car that normally gets 20 mpg will only get 10 mpg when it has a cold engine.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
All that aside, it would be interesting to see more data on what people are trading for. This new breed of 40mpg cars is certainly giving the gas-electric hybrid a run for its money. It's easy to forget MPG is inverse of cost, and payback from 40 to 50 is pretty low weighed against the higher purchase price.
Click to expand...
These so-called "40 mpg" non-hybrids are typically 29-33 mpg combined (and considerably worse in the city test), at best and sometimes only w/specific trim levels and manual transmissions. They should be called 30 mpg cars.

The Prius and Prius c deliver 50 mpg combined on the EPA test.
 
ya, problem is that most people dont measure their tank size in "mpg's" its measured in days.

or i get gas once a week, or on payday every two weeks and so on. so if they get gas a day early, its not a huge deal to them but to us its like going from 50 mpg to 45 mpg. any Prius owner will tell you, it is definitely something to be concerned about.

i dont even drive my Prius very much any more and i can tell you within 1-2 mpg what the next tank will be because it is very consistent especially when its primary use is a commute. it does not do short inefficient winter time trips. that is the Leaf's role which it does very very well.

let me tell ya a story of two relatives. one a 22 YO female, the other a 40 something male. both have 2008 Ford Focuses.

She gets an average of 28-30 mpg, he gets an average of 35 mpg. same car but MUCH different driving situations.

she lives in town, works in same town. in fact, her work is about 3 miles from where she lives. he lives in colder weather (MI) so would have assumed to be in a "less economically friendly" environment.

now he lives in the country, works in town. its about 20-30 miles one way and (guessing here) probably a good 25% is country roads at 40-50 mph
 
cwerdna said:
These so-called "40 mpg" non-hybrids are typically 29-33 mpg combined (and considerably worse in the city test), at best and sometimes only w/specific trim levels and manual transmissions. They should be called 30 mpg cars.

The Prius and Prius c deliver 50 mpg combined on the EPA test.
Click to expand...

I asked about that on another thread and another poster said in tests some of these 40mpg cars are beating their estimates. Not sure I believe it but have no firsthand knowledge with these latest models. I do know we have gotten well over 30 in some other economy cars like civic in mixed driving and they weren't the latest models. With this new crop it isn't just the Cruze, there's mazda skyactiv, elantra with it's 6 speed automatic, and others. Meanwhile it's not clear every prius driver is getting 50mpg. I certainly haven't the times I've rented them, but I probably didn't drive it right, had a headwind, or dared to turn on the A/C. Excellent mileage, better than any other car, but not 50mpg, more like 45.

12,000 miles of driving in a year takes 240 gallons @ 50mpg and 343 gallons @ 35mpg. So at $4 a gallon you're saving $412 a year. From what I've seen a Prius is a minimum $4k premium over a 35mpg type car. Lots of other variables like gas prices rising over the time you have the car, concerns over complexity in the prius/battery replacement that may be unfounded, time value of money ($4k now vs ~$400/yr) etc etc...

Don't get me wrong, I think the Prius is an amazing piece of engineering, but it's easy to see how a lot of buyers don't find the math all that compelling. More likely people don't choose it for reasons, like it isn't cool or they don't like the way it looks or handles.
 

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