Valdemar wrote:The conversion crowd is finite, over time their need for packs may well be over supplied as more and more totalled Leafs end up on junk yards. But sure, if the price doesn't make sense there isn't much you can do.
I agree with you, but I think the time frame you are looking at is the same time frame that will have the conversion crowd peak. The conversion crowd is small but still significant and from the little that I've done looking into it most of them have spent around $6-10k on batteries if they went with Li-ion to go 50-100 miles and spent less when they went with lead acid.
Over the next few years I'd predict that you'll see not only the new conversion crowd grow as the price drops but the lead acid to li-ion upgrades and small capacity pack upgrades buying up used leaf cells. In a few years no one will be left with a lead acid conversion and everyone will just buy the capacity they need when they start the build, then the prices will start to drop.
Just a theory though, I could be wrong and welcome anyone who thinks otherwise to express their opinion.