LeftieBiker
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:01 pm

My situation is similar. My Leaf will get me through the Summer ok, and the Fall as well, but once it starts to get really cold I'll be hurting for range. If we have a hot Summer the car will lose the first bar. I'd be willing to order a new Leaf to my specs (a first for me!) but it would have to be delivered by early December, not by New Year's Day. Nissan has to make the price attractive, and the car has to be available for test drives by journalists at least, in early September. August would be much better, because of the likely Labor day sales.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

RRLeafEV
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:44 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
I don't know actual numbers, but the lower priced S seemed to sell better than the SV or SL.


Just going by what I've read here, and seen in searching dealer stock, it appears to me that the best selling Leaf models are, in descending order:

SV with Premium Package

SL with premium Package

S with Charge Package

SV/SL without Premium

S without Charge Package.


Actual sales numbers will be different, because both the S, and the SV without Premium get discounted heavily, and sell, eventually, but the above is based on how fast models sell, not just on how many sell when the price is slashed. It is, admittedly, just an semi-educated guess, but I usually have a feel for these things. Anyway, based on the above, I think that many people want a combination of good price and good features, while many others look for one feature combined with lowest price. The latter would be the S with Charge Package. So if Nisan wants to compete on price, they should build the S with QC and 6.6kw charger, and 30kwh pack. If they want to compete on price and features, a $36k SV with Premium and 60kwh pack should be a winner. If they can sell the loaded SL for much less than the Bolt Premiere, that too should work.


With all due respect, how does "looking at dealer inventory" give you ANY indication of what's "best selling?" Wouldn't inventory tell you what's NOT selling? Do you have any idea exactly how long the inventory you've found has been on their lots? Also, your reading here, with a few hundred aficionados posting, is far from "scientific" or

Without actual sales data, that is simply WILD speculation.

According to a gentlemen who sells the most LEAFs in the nation, less expensive sells better but many want the QC, so that's a consideration. Premium Package is easily the least important to a sale and the rarest LEAF configuration, so the smallest of sales:

S far and away the best seller.
SV next
SL last
2017 Nissan Leaf SV in Gun Metallic
2014 SL (sold)

LeftieBiker
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sat Mar 18, 2017 2:57 pm

Yes, dealer inventory tells you what is not selling, and the longer they stay there, and which ones are sold last, are what I was using to indicate sales popularity. There are usually roughly equal numbers of SVs and S models in stock when inventory arrives, with the SVs with premium, along with the usually smaller number of SLs with premium, selling first. If you want to go by total sales per year then the S probably does lead - but that's because of large end of year discounts, not because the model itself is "popular." The S with Charge Package is "popular" but more so when on sale than when at full MSRP. The SV with Premium isn't usually as hard to move. SVs without Premium sit on the lot almost as long as the 3.3 kw S models.

Maybe we should get back on topic!
Last edited by LeftieBiker on Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

ydnas7
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:04 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
ydnas7 wrote:Nissan's incremental cost per kWh will be substantially less than GM's $145 deal from LG. so lets pick a number say $120/kWh
pack stays the same, no cell cooling costs, so a 40kWh version saves Nissan 60-40=20kWh x $120 or about $2400.


This claim strikes me as out of the blue and unsubstantiated. What is your evidence that Nissan's cell cost is lower than GM's?


Yes, you are right, I am wrong

but

When Takao Asami wasa directly about GM's statement that it was paying only $145 per kilowatt-hour for the LG Chem cells in its 2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV, Asami said that figure "would not surprise me at all." And, he added with a smile, GM "probably has some safety margin" on that figure as well. http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... -confirmed

Renault Nissan is generally a larger LG customer than GM, Nissan could use those cells, on a take or leave basis, but is choosing to make their their own on a take or pay basis. Nissan's cells will be cheaper on a take or pay basis than LG, but not cheaper on a take or leave basis than LG.

Nissan is chasing EV volume, GM is not.

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jhm614
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Sun Mar 19, 2017 6:50 pm

ydnas7 wrote:Renault Nissan is generally a larger LG customer than GM, Nissan could use those cells, on a take or leave basis, but is choosing to make their their own on a take or pay basis. Nissan's cells will be cheaper on a take or pay basis than LG, but not cheaper on a take or leave basis than LG.

Nissan is chasing EV volume, GM is not.

Sandy,

I am not familiar with "take or leave" vs. "take or pay". Would you expand on that?

Also, remember, that LG is producing more than just the batteries for the Bolt. GM maybe getting a battery deal based on the fact that LG wants to break into the motor / controller / inverter market as well as finding a larger market for their HVAC and infotainment products.
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4BL: 06/29/13 @ 27 months, 43,520 miles, 42.56 Ahr. New 12 bar battery: 09/09/13
4BLx2:12/31/16 @ 69 months, 99,475 miles, 42.99 Ahr.

ydnas7
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:31 pm

jhm614 wrote:
ydnas7 wrote:Renault Nissan is generally a larger LG customer than GM, Nissan could use those cells, on a take or leave basis, but is choosing to make their their own on a take or pay basis. Nissan's cells will be cheaper on a take or pay basis than LG, but not cheaper on a take or leave basis than LG.

Nissan is chasing EV volume, GM is not.

Sandy,

I am not familiar with "take or leave" vs. "take or pay". Would you expand on that?

Also, remember, that LG is producing more than just the batteries for the Bolt. GM maybe getting a battery deal based on the fact that LG wants to break into the motor / controller / inverter market as well as finding a larger market for their HVAC and infotainment products.


take it or leave it, the buyer may choose to buy or walk away from any quantity.

take or pay, the buyer has contracted to pay for a set minimum quantity, whether they take delivery of that quantity or not. For example, if GM has a take or pay with a seat supplier for 1,000,000 units, but due to GFC only takes 700,000 units, GM would still pay for 1,000,000 units.

'take or pay' prices should be lower than 'take or leave' because the seller does not need to include certain risk contingencies in their price. That is one component of the" safety margin" that Takao Asami was talking about.

Owning a factory is a take or pay proposition, significant costs are sunk, but incremental per unit costs should be cheaper.

GetOffYourGas
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:33 am

Thank you for the business economics education, Sandy. I was wondering about those terms too, but jhm614 beat me to the question.

You also make an important point about chasing volume. Here in the US, looking at US sales numbers, it is easy to lose sight of that. But, if I'm not mistaken, the Leaf is still the best-selling EV (worldwide) ever made.

With GM's battery cost pretty much revealed, Tesla advertising its target cost with the Gigafactory, and the likelihood of Nissan being in the same game for cost, the near future is going to be very interesting.
~Brian

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ydnas7
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:03 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Thank you for the business economics education, Sandy. I was wondering about those terms too, but jhm614 beat me to the question.

You also make an important point about chasing volume. Here in the US, looking at US sales numbers, it is easy to lose sight of that. But, if I'm not mistaken, the Leaf is still the best-selling EV (worldwide) ever made.

With GM's battery cost pretty much revealed, Tesla advertising its target cost with the Gigafactory, and the likelihood of Nissan being in the same game for cost, the near future is going to be very interesting.


LEAF 2 will be lower cost than the Bolt, but pricing is up to marketing. (and additional bling like self driving abilities)

In non USA countries, 'autopilot' night time pedestrian avoidance will become a requirement for 5 stars. Its already affecting budget cars like Suzuki who are changing to compliant systems. Nissan ProPilot (and similar from other manufacturers) will raise the price. I don't see this as a key requirement for GM Bolt.

what I'm predicting is that midlevel Nissan LEAF 2 will not be cheaper than midlevel GM Bolt simply because what Nissan saves in not having a TMS, will be spent on having a supercruise/Propilot ability instead.

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jhm614
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:01 am

More spy shots - European location this time -- looks similar to the US shots from last month. One article compares to the IDS, the other to the Sway. To me, the front end on the camo looks much larger than the Sway.

http://www.motor1.com/news/140512/2018- ... py-photos/

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/nissan/lea ... p-new-look
2011 Brilliant Silver SL - 105,000 gasoline free miles so far.
4BL: 06/29/13 @ 27 months, 43,520 miles, 42.56 Ahr. New 12 bar battery: 09/09/13
4BLx2:12/31/16 @ 69 months, 99,475 miles, 42.99 Ahr.

edatoakrun
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Re: LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

Tue Mar 28, 2017 6:29 am

jhm614 wrote:More spy shots - European location this time -- looks similar to the US shots from last month...

Recent rendering of what it might look like without the camo like was posted below:

Future Cars: 2018 Nissan Leaf Keeps Things Familiar

...IDS Concept-Inspired Styling

In 2015, Nissan revealed the IDS autonomous EV concept, which was said to be a strong pointer for the next Leaf. Fast forward to today, and whilst elements of the show car will make into production, the overall look is worlds apart.

Instead, the new EV will be a visual crossbreed between the latest Micra supermini and out-going Leaf. Frontal styling will be headlined by a mono-tooth, V-Motion grille, chiseled lower bumper and wedge-shaped headlamps.

The view from the side will be fairly conventional; tall and stubby proportions, floating roof and a blacked-out C-Pillar up-kink (not too different to the Chevy Bolt) are the go here. Out back, the hatch will be dominated by horizontal thin-wedge tail lamps and a subtle rear diffuser...

http://www.carscoops.com/2017/03/future ... keeps.html
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