Future EV predictions, anyone?

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jjeff said:
SageBrush said:
.....In other news, the average transaction price of a car in the US in 2016 was $33k
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj0nLH83fTTAhUY5mMKHfm6BcAQFggpMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmediaroom.kbb.com%2Fnew-car-transaction-prices-up-2-percent-march-2016&usg=AFQjCNHaL2c9yse9rJjvbjpSjZoVQop29A&sig2=1QGJ1XzZmXz00sgEdgWyrA
Interesting they actually give Electric Vehicles a seperate line. At $36,644 average, they can't be selling too many $70-100k Teslas.....
I think you mean: kbb cannot be *counting* too many Teslas.

Tesla is not on the list of included manufacturers.
 
tattoogunman said:
RonDawg said:
jjeff said:
IMO there will always be a need for ICE vehicles, just not to the degree we use them now. I mean 95%?? of peoples daily drives are within even the range of the Leaf or other BEVs, use them for that purpose and a ICE for longer trips or when you need 100+ miles at a shot. I suppose the ideal all in one vehicle would be the PHEV with say a 30-50 mile EV only range, EV for 90% of your trips, ICE for the other 10%.

This is where I personally think motoring will go in the future, at least short-term. A battery large enough for the overwhelming majority of your driving needs, but a small engine (perhaps 1 liter displacement or less) for those few times you actually need to go further, or need to charge away from a plug.
You are talking about range extenders and you can already get one (Chevy Volt, BMW i3, etc.)...
No, not really.

Idiotic CARB regulations still require that the generator not be turned on until the battery charge is nearly exhausted, to meet its BEVx classification.

This means the generator has to be over-sized to provide full traction energy to BEV with a depleted pack, and even then may only power the car inadequately in extreme conditions, as is the case with a BMW i3.

This issue has been discussed for many years on this thread:

The “range–extended” EV (BEVx) considered

Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:50 am

...I’m still not so ready to totally write off the ICE, as many on this site seem to be.

In fact, a true ICE ”range extender” for a BEV is not a bad Idea, It's just that current designs are all abysmal failures, from the point of energy efficiency and driver utility. Putting an ICE drivetrain in an EV, whether in series, parallel, or any other hybrid configuration, is not advisable, IMO. Invariably, you will get an overweight, overpriced, underperforming vehicle, like the Volt. It seems almost as ridiculous, to install an extremely expensive and heavy large battery pack (like the Tesla S long-range options) which is only occasionally required by the BEV driver.

A functional range extender would consist of:

A small displacement (200-600 CC) ICE generator, run at highest-efficiency rpm, to recharge the battery pack. Generator output would not be sufficient to drive the vehicle, just enough to extend the battery pack range to the next convenient recharge location.

It would not run on gasoline, but a less polluting, and more stable fuel, such as propane (easier refueling) or CNG (lower cost). 5 gallons of Propane, for example, would probably offer about 200 miles of range extention for a LEAF-sized BEV.

The fuel would also be available to a combustion cabin heater, the one use for which battery energy storage is particularly inefficient...

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6847
 
SageBrush said:
I like the combination of one short range, inexpensive EV commuter and one long-distance, more expensive *EV in our household. For now that means a LEAF and a Prius Prime, but I expect that to change to a LEAF and a Tesla Model 3 in a year or so.
Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.
 
SageBrush said:
jjeff said:
SageBrush said:
.....In other news, the average transaction price of a car in the US in 2016 was $33k
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj0nLH83fTTAhUY5mMKHfm6BcAQFggpMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmediaroom.kbb.com%2Fnew-car-transaction-prices-up-2-percent-march-2016&usg=AFQjCNHaL2c9yse9rJjvbjpSjZoVQop29A&sig2=1QGJ1XzZmXz00sgEdgWyrA
Interesting they actually give Electric Vehicles a seperate line. At $36,644 average, they can't be selling too many $70-100k Teslas.....
I think you mean: kbb cannot be *counting* too many Teslas.

Tesla is not on the list of included manufacturers.
:? that would make more sense then. Well not really make sense that they don't include Teslas, at least without a major * stating so, but explains the relativly low average price of a new BEV considering Tesla :)
 
hyperionmark said:
SageBrush said:
I like the combination of one short range, inexpensive EV commuter and one long-distance, more expensive *EV in our household. For now that means a LEAF and a Prius Prime, but I expect that to change to a LEAF and a Tesla Model 3 in a year or so.
Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.
+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Let's try this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrQqCLRXl2w


The 'youtube' html doesn't seem to work here. Just highlight links and select "URL".


I had one of the first reservations. Too bad the "*&^" that took over the company ran it into the ground, biggest bunch of clowns. Almost seemed intentional. Those who know the Aptera saga and all the details remember it well. Anyone that ever drove the car knew how cool it was at the time.
 
jjeff said:
hyperionmark said:
SageBrush said:
I like the combination of one short range, inexpensive EV commuter and one long-distance, more expensive *EV in our household. For now that means a LEAF and a Prius Prime, but I expect that to change to a LEAF and a Tesla Model 3 in a year or so.
Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.
+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.
Surprised you have to do 5k oil changes. I can go 7.5k on my Nissan Titan. I would think the Prius engine could go 10k or more as it is less stressed and not even running for all those miles. But yeah, it would be hard to get rid of a (probably paid for) efficient/reliable car like that.
 
Firetruck41 said:
jjeff said:
+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.
Surprised you have to do 5k oil changes. I can go 7.5k on my Nissan Titan. I would think the Prius engine could go 10k or more as it is less stressed and not even running for all those miles. But yeah, it would be hard to get rid of a (probably paid for) efficient/reliable car like that.
I wonder if car manufacturers don't add more maintenance than necessary to make up for the lack of maintenance these types of cars normally need. For an example, why do Nissan Leafs need so many brake fluid changes? I can't remember the exact numbers but I seem to recall every year. What other car needs brake fluid changes every year?

On the other hand if your like me and have driven family cars with over 300,000 miles on the original engine(Ford Aerostar 300k, Honda Civic 400k and VW Golf 500k) then you know how much those regular oil changes end up paying off in the end.
 
Firetruck41 said:
jjeff said:
hyperionmark said:
Definitely agree. We are in the same boat in our household. For now that means a PiP and Leaf. In a couple years it will likely be a Model 3 and Leaf.

I would guess the vast majority of 2 car homes don't need 2 long range cars.
+1, Leaf and regular('07) Prius. We'd like to replace the regular Prius with the Prime but it just keeps going and going, with no real maintenance other than 5k oil/filter changes. With even the Prime we'd get our gasoline purchases down to basically a couple longer trips/year and maybe a half dozen trips across town where the Prime wouldn't make it on EV alone and the Leaf was being used, the rest of our town driving is almost exclusively done with the Leaf.
Surprised you have to do 5k oil changes. I can go 7.5k on my Nissan Titan. I would think the Prius engine could go 10k or more as it is less stressed and not even running for all those miles. But yeah, it would be hard to get rid of a (probably paid for) efficient/reliable car like that.
Actually for us 5k can be almost a year, depending on any long trips. In MN with cold starts and sometimes short trips I don't like to push it too far. I believe the manual says 5k and while I suppose I could push it to 7.5k if it were just summer driving, it's not. Truthfully I've always been a 3k oil and filter person up until the Prius and my previous '04 Scion. One reason being, my previous car, a '94 Geo Metro was faithfully changed at 3k, at 10 years old it had 65k miles and ran like a top, at 11 years the frame broke(rusted) rendering the car undrivable and it had to be junked :( From then on I figured why do all the extra oil changes if something other than the engine is going to go bad and make it worthless. The Prius being used for longer trips has higher mileage(95k) but if something like the battery pack goes and renders it uneconomical to fix, I will have saved some money on oil and filters. Glad I don't have to mess with oil and filters with my Leaf :)
 
IIRC, the 2004 - 2009 oil change interval was one year or 10k if you used 0w-20 motor oil, whichever came first.
 
IssacZachary said:
I wonder if car manufacturers don't add more maintenance than necessary to make up for the lack of maintenance these types of cars normally need. For an example, why do Nissan Leafs need so many brake fluid changes? I can't remember the exact numbers but I seem to recall every year. What other car needs brake fluid changes every year?

Biennial brake fluid changes have been recommended by many manufacturers and independent mechanics long before the Leaf showed up in people's driveways. The recommendation is due to the brake fluid's tendency to absorb water from the atmosphere.

Whether you can get away with waiting longer is a different story. But it certainly predates the modern plug-in car era.
 
SageBrush said:
IIRC, the 2004 - 2009 oil change interval was one year or 10k if you used 0w-20 motor oil, whichever came first.
For Gen 2 Prius (04 to 09), the oil change interval was every 5K miles or every 6 months. I'm pretty sure synthetic was never officially approved for that generation of Prius.

We didn't hear about the 1 year/12K mile and synthetic approval until at least few months into Gen 3 (2010 to 2015 model year). It was only for Gen 3 and also didn't increase the OCI of cars for which it was never approved.

https://toyota.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/7604
https://toyota.custhelp.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/7746/related/1
https://fleet.toyota.com/ftc/public/staticContent/docs/Miscellaneous%20Information/Archived/Synthetic%20Engine%20Oil%20Type%202015%20Update%2008-04-14.pdf

https://priuschat.com/threads/prius-2010-oil-change-interval-revised-not-yet-closed.68487/ from Sep 2009. Gen 3 Prius began shipping around May 2009.
 
Biennial brake fluid changes have been recommended by many manufacturers and independent mechanics long before the Leaf showed up in people's driveways. The recommendation is due to the brake fluid's tendency to absorb water from the atmosphere.

Whether you can get away with waiting longer is a different story. But it certainly predates the modern plug-in car era.

It's a sealed system - water is mainly picked up when the reservoir cap is opened. Since the reservoir is translucent, you rarely need to open the cap. My car is still on the original brake fluid: part of me wants to have it changed next week when the car is serviced, but the other part reminds me that I'll be turning the car in before next Winter. The fluid tested fine last Spring, so I may just test it again, with a test strip.
 
Looking in my Golf's owner's manual, it says every two years regardless of miles or use. But in the Leaf's owner's manual it clearly states yearly:

Screen-Shot-2014-08-19-at-3.37.55-PM.png
 
"Severe" service schedules are for ICEVs, since the conditions cited in them (particularly continued low speed operation and/or very short drives from cold start) affect motor oils the most.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Biennial brake fluid changes have been recommended by many manufacturers and independent mechanics long before the Leaf showed up in people's driveways. The recommendation is due to the brake fluid's tendency to absorb water from the atmosphere.

Whether you can get away with waiting longer is a different story. But it certainly predates the modern plug-in car era.

It's a sealed system - water is mainly picked up when the reservoir cap is opened. Since the reservoir is translucent, you rarely need to open the cap. My car is still on the original brake fluid: part of me wants to have it changed next week when the car is serviced, but the other part reminds me that I'll be turning the car in before next Winter. The fluid tested fine last Spring, so I may just test it again, with a test strip.

I don't think it's 100% sealed, otherwise the fluid won't be able to drain out of the reservoir.

If you live in a dry climate like Las Vegas or Phoenix you may be able to get away without changing it a lot longer than somewhere humid like Florida or Hawaii. Perhaps it should be extended as some manufacturers have done, but for some manufacturers the recommendation is still every two years.

Anyway, my point being is that biennial brake fluid changes long pre-dated the modern plug-in car era.
 
I don't think it's 100% sealed, otherwise the fluid won't be able to drain out of the reservoir.

Fluid only moves from the reservoir as the caliper pistons move outwards, and this doesn't require any air space in the lines - air bubbles can't be present, or the system won't work. There is no flowing brake fluid in contact with air under normal circumstances, AFAIK, except for the small amount of air in the reservoir.
 
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