TSLA corporate outlook

LTLFTcomposite said:

They still have a $9k gap to close to get to the short range model 3 so this approach wouldn't get them all the way there but IMO an "upgradeable" short range 3 could be interesting at a premium to the 35k price point. What was the short range battery supposed to be, 180 miles? As a customer I'd be more confident buying a short range if I knew I could get a do-over on the decision... also safer from a resale value perspective.
Of course it's all in the numbers.

Click to expand...

They told me the SR should have 220 miles range, a cloth interior, and no glass roof when I stopped by the Tesla dealership on Monday. She also said they did not expect it to be available before the tax credit cuts in half again on June 30th. They were really pushing the dual motor models already on the lot but that's way out of my price range.

From a strictly performance perspective, the smaller battery and lack of a glass roof should save a decent amount of weight making a M3 SR interesting with a performance package option. That said, they probably don't have a lot of incentive to make their cheaper car faster than the expensive one...

golfcart said:

They told me the SR should have 220 miles range, a cloth interior, and no glass roof when I stopped by the Tesla dealership on Monday. She also said they did not expect it to be available before the tax credit cuts in half again on June 30th. They were really pushing the dual motor models already on the lot but that's way out of my price range.

Click to expand...

We've been able to infer for a long time what the standard range wouldn't have by what's listed that's part of the premium package (https://3.tesla.com/model3/design#interior), which is a forced $5000 feature.

Originally, before the mid-range 3, the cheapest you could get was the LR 3, which had the $5K forced premium package and $9K forced upgrade to LR battery.

As I've mentioned many times, I do NOT want the glass roof (reports of cracks early on, concerned it'll be a money pit once the warranty is over), let alone have to pay extra for it. Cloth seats would be fine as I've never had non-cloth seats in a car I've owned or leased until this past weekend.

Tesla shares drop sharply after Musk announces CFO Deepak Ahuja is leaving the company — for the second time
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-says-tesla-cfo-deepak-233613332.html

Current models are 264 and 310 mile range so 220 makes sense for short range positioning. If people are willing to pay $35k for short range would they be willing to pay > $35k (but less than $44k) for short range that had the ability to be upgraded to mid range?

I suspect the problem with cutting out other stuff like premium seats is those things probably cost almost nothing and are pure profit for manufacturers.

LTLFTcomposite said:

Current models are 264 and 310 mile range so 220 makes sense for short range positioning. If people are willing to pay $35k for short range would they be willing to pay > $35k (but less than $44k) for short range that had the ability to be upgraded to mid range?

I suspect the problem with cutting out other stuff like premium seats is those things probably cost almost nothing and are pure profit for manufacturers.

Click to expand...

The thing is, while 220 miles EPA for $35k was a big deal when the Model 3 was announced, there's going to be a fair number of cars with more range and with base MSRPs not much more in that category this year, with later or no reduction of federal subsidies, so the Model 3 SR loses some of its luster (for those who've stuck with it thus far). Sure, it's faster than a lot of the competition, but the infrastructure advantage it had is rapidly narrowing thanks to EA.

GRA said:

The thing is, while 220 miles EPA for $35k was a big deal when the Model 3 was announced, there's going to be a fair number of cars with more range and with base MSRPs not much more in that category this year, with later or no reduction of federal subsidies, so the Model 3 SR loses some of its luster (for those who've stuck with it thus far). Sure, it's faster than a lot of the competition, but the infrastructure advantage it had is rapidly narrowing thanks to EA.

Click to expand...

Indeed, if Tesla was able to build Supercharger Network while barely selling 200,000 cars in US - nothing stopping other manufacturers to build even better network right next to Tesla as they do not own the land and all infrastructure work is mostly completed by local electric company and paid by Tesla, lol. You can see it in Maryland - public fast DC charging station are located right next to Tesla chargers and the best thing - non Tesla chargers are mostly free. I would not boast too much about Tesla superiority in charing network - it can be matched and exceeded in very short time. In our area EA already finished 150kW chargers, while Tesla keeps moving planned "coming soon" destination superchargers sites to next year, every year.

I don't believe those other manufacturers will deliver those cars in any significant quantities, and the cars they do produce will be sold alongside ICEs by car salesman who don't give a f***. They will bad-mouth the EV models and they'll be shuffled to the back of the lot.

What's EA?

LTLFTcomposite said:

What's EA?

Click to expand...

Likely VW-funded/run Electrify America.

LTLFTcomposite said:

They will bad-mouth the EV models and they'll be shuffled to the back of the lot.
What's EA?

Click to expand...

EA = Electrify America.
They did not bad mouthed EV in my case, but sure thing - EV are shuffled to the back of the lot, literally, :lol: .

MS/MX battery and SC evolution?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJMG01wesTs

Is anyone concerned that January sales of Model 3 are estimated at just 6,500 by insideevs.com?

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Sure 6,500 is more than January 2018 however Tesla was constrained by production last year. Supposedly Tesla is producing close to 6,000 per week.... can all those extras be headed out of the US?

Did the drop in federal tax credit change demand toward the competition?

Or is this just a season normal fluctuation? Is the estimate just wrong and a bit low?

I am rather surprised January sales dropped under 10,000.

Tesla began shipping to Europe and Asia in January. They put a large percentage of their production onto ships that take several weeks to reach port in other continents. Once these pipelines are filled with vehicles you will see the numbers stabilize again.

smkettner said:

Is anyone concerned that January sales of Model 3 are estimated at just 6,500 by insideevs.com?

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Sure 6,500 is more than January 2018 however Tesla was constrained by production last year. Supposedly Tesla is producing close to 6,000 per week.... can all those extras be headed out of the US?

Did the drop in federal tax credit change demand toward the competition?

Click to expand...

Yes on what palmermd said about vehicles being bound for outside the US.

However, I suspect there was also inflated demand and a surge towards the end of 2018 by people wanting to get the full tax credit. Introducing the mid-range 3 also helped more people decide they were ok w/a higher than $35K price but lower than the $49K starting price of the LR RWD car.

I wouldn't be surprised if US 3 sales average below 15K/month from this point forward until the "$35K" SR model ships as the tax credit wanes...

palmermd said:

Tesla began shipping to Europe and Asia in January. They put a large percentage of their production onto ships that take several weeks to reach port in other continents. Once these pipelines are filled with vehicles you will see the numbers stabilize again.

Click to expand...

Tesla has excess U.S. inventory just sitting in multiple storage lots around the U.S. This was noted previously, e.g. at the Marina Del Rey
Tesla distribution center, on Culver Blvd. That inventory, i.e. 30 - 40 M3s, is still there. Telsa has a volume problem trying to maintain sales
of $44K+ M3s to be profitable. Yes, ROW sales in the short term will help, but nowhere near the volume in the U.S. in Q4 of 2018.

http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=3190#p546062

IEVS:

Tesla To Offer CCS Adapter For Model S, X In Europe

Click to expand...

https://insideevs.com/tesla-ccs-adapter-model-s-x-europe/

120kW vs. 43 kW max. for the CHAdeMO adapter.


GCR:

Commentary: Tesla races to outrun perfect storm from tax credit, production, cost hurdles

Click to expand...

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...storm-from-tax-credit-production-cost-hurdles

lorenfb said:

palmermd said:

Tesla began shipping to Europe and Asia in January. They put a large percentage of their production onto ships that take several weeks to reach port in other continents. Once these pipelines are filled with vehicles you will see the numbers stabilize again.

Click to expand...

Tesla has excess U.S. inventory just sitting in multiple storage lots around the U.S. This was noted previously, e.g. at the Marina Del Rey
Tesla distribution center, on Culver Blvd. That inventory, i.e. 30 - 40 M3s, is still there. Telsa has a volume problem trying to maintain sales
of $44K+ M3s to be profitable. Yes, ROW sales in the short term will help, but nowhere near the volume in the U.S. in Q4 of 2018.

http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=3190#p546062

Click to expand...

I wonder what US-wide inventory of 3's looks like and of what equipment levels.

FWIW, the dealer I bought my Bolt from allegedly has (currently) 229 Bolts in stock: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/VehicleSearchResults?model=Bolt%20EV. https://www.capitolchevysj.com/new-vehicles/bolt-ev/ allegedly has 291 of them in stock. For 2018, GM only sold/leased about 18K Bolts in the US and their Bolt marketing efforts seem to be near 0.

cwerdna said:

I wonder what US-wide inventory of 3's looks like and of what equipment levels.

FWIW, the dealer I bought my Bolt from allegedly has (currently) 229 Bolts in stock: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/VehicleSearchResults?model=Bolt%20EV. https://www.capitolchevysj.com/new-vehicles/bolt-ev/ allegedly has 291 of them in stock. For 2018, GM only sold/leased about 18K Bolts in the US and their Bolt marketing efforts seem to be near 0.

Click to expand...

Via ABG:

. . . Analysts were also concerned by Tesla's indication that it is only making cars for China and Europe right now, and expects a gap of about 10,000 vehicles between production and deliveries due to vehicles in transit at the end of the first quarter.

"This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory," Cowen analysts said. . . .

Click to expand...

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/01/31/tesla-stock-drops-cfo-quits-model-3-demand-china/

(too late to delete)

I wonder what's the deal with Maxwell

Based on their 4th quarter guidance I no longer believe there will ever be a $35k Model 3. Too many punts, too many "once X, we'll start the $35k".

Musk is continuing to be dishonest about it, and LAtimes called him out appropriately:

https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tesla-20190206-story.html

The more I learn about Musk the more I see a compulsive BSer. I think this is the result of a growing narcissism and insistence to surround himself with yes-men. Nothing he says can be taken seriously. His comments are so far removed from what will happen that even his most strident fans summarily dismiss his timelines as irrelevant, and argue that specifics don't matter.