2016 Nissan LEAF Information - 30 kWh SV/SL, 24 kWh S

[GetOffYourGas]

Except that is not real.

Globally, there are over 7M people that spend over US $35k on a new vehicle every year.

Model 3 ,Bolt, Top battery spec LEAF have massive addressable market.

Hhmmm ... what is the global sales of compact cars over $35k ? I don't think that is 7M.

To be fair here, Dave said "any" car, and didn't limit his statement to compact cars.

But back to actual reality, this is biggest problem with EVs today; they are all compact to mid-sized. Many more sales are found in the larger segments of cars. And especially the more expensive cars sold are all much larger.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

I drive 45 miles on the highway mostly at 60 mph (50-55 sometimes when it was really cold) and never once did I not make it to work all winter. It got as low as -30C this year. I think the lowest I got in with would have been in the high teens for the % (now that's to the QC which is about 3-4 miles from my work) I never once hit VLBW on the way to work and only hit LBW a few times. A preheated cabin, 12v electric blanket and heat on low settings for almost all of the winter.

Bolded/underlined the caveats to achieving such range in such conditions. The example I used was full heat (hey, it was cold!) and car charging outside, so batteries very cold. But these aren't strange conditions; many people leave their cars outside overnight.

 

[minispeed]

I drive 45 miles on the highway mostly at 60 mph (50-55 sometimes when it was really cold) and never once did I not make it to work all winter. It got as low as -30C this year. I think the lowest I got in with would have been in the high teens for the % (now that's to the QC which is about 3-4 miles from my work) I never once hit VLBW on the way to work and only hit LBW a few times. A preheated cabin, 12v electric blanket and heat on low settings for almost all of the winter.

Bolded/underlined the caveats to achieving such range in such conditions. The example I used was full heat (hey, it was cold!) and car charging outside, so batteries very cold. But these aren't strange conditions; many people leave their cars outside overnight.

My car was always parked outside so the batteries just got cold, I never had it in a heated garage. I just set a timer to heat up the cabin. I never tuned the heat off on my way to work I just kept it at a comfortable setting, not sure what it comes out to in F which you'd be use to but it was usually 20.5C, the lowest setting is 18C. If by full heat you mean setting it to it's absolute max that's blasting it. If I did that for an hour I'd be cooking. The electric blanket was bought for my wifes drive because she drives 55 without a charge at work so she could turn the heat off instead of charge and it wasn't till Feb that we had it. Since it was there I used it but it never was what made 40+ possible. It's a 90 mile round trip I had 24kWh from the initial charge, around 8-10kWh that I would get at work on L1 and when I did a QC I'd put in about 6-7kWh. That's about 40kWh total to do 90 miles in -30C with heat on and 2-5kWh left in the battery when I got home so I bet a 30kWh could get me at least 60 miles of winter driving with the same remaining in the battery at the end of the day.

Although I don't know the battery % and kWh for my wife's drive the longest she stopped for a 6.6kW L2 charge was 30 min to do 55 miles total and she would only turn off heat if she decided not to stop which was the last 12 miles.

 

[TimLee]

I am hoping Nissan offers even further incentives to buy our cars out of lease once the 2017 cars come out. I am already considering buying my 2013 with the $5,000 rebate ($9,200 purchase price). Let's say I could buy my car for $7,200. The way I see it, I choose between an 80 mile car for $7,200 vs a 150 mile gen2 car for 4X more money.

If the post in the end of leasing thread is correct they have increased the residual reduction to $6,500.
So it is already happening with the news being out about the 2016 SV and SL being 30 kWh.
Likely will increase further if/when gen 2 info gets out and is 48 kWh.

 

[evnow]

The way I see it, I choose between an 80 mile car for $7,200 vs a 150 mile gen2 car for 4X more money.

Are you saying the used car costs a lot less ? *shocked*

 

[kubel]

The way I see it, I choose between an 80 mile car for $7,200 vs a 150 mile gen2 car for 4X more money.

Are you saying the used car costs a lot less ? *shocked*

I don't think you'll be able to get even a Japanese LEAF off-lease for $7200. My buyout with the $6500 credit is close to $9400, and I have the lowest trim, least equipped car available in 2012 (SV, CHAdeNO).


65 mile LEAF with 3kW charger and crappy battery, bumper to bumper warranty expired, still has drivetrain warranty - $9400
100+ mile LEAF with 6kW charger and unproven battery, full warranty - $28000

 

[ishiyakazuo]

The way I see it, I choose between an 80 mile car for $7,200 vs a 150 mile gen2 car for 4X more money.

Are you saying the used car costs a lot less ? *shocked*

I don't think you'll be able to get even a Japanese LEAF off-lease for $7200. My buyout with the $6500 credit is close to $9400, and I have the lowest trim, least equipped car available in 2012 (SV, CHAdeNO).


65 mile LEAF with 3kW charger and crappy battery, bumper to bumper warranty expired, still has drivetrain warranty - $9400
100+ mile LEAF with 6kW charger and unproven battery, full warranty - $28000

Do you mean a Japanese LEAF being a 2011 or 2012 MY one, or one for the Japanese market? I've seen used LEAFs in Japan for around that price already.

 

[evnow]

I don't think you'll be able to get even a Japanese LEAF off-lease for $7200. My buyout with the $6500 credit is close to $9400, and I have the lowest trim, least equipped car available in 2012 (SV, CHAdeNO).

MY12 was particularly a bad year - the prices went up (then came down in '13). You can't go by MY12.

BTW, my '13 pay off amount is $21k.

 

[TimLee]

... I don't think you'll be able to get even a Japanese LEAF off-lease for $7200. My buyout with the $6500 credit is close to $9400, and I have the lowest trim, least equipped car available in 2012 (SV, CHAdeNO). ...

Maybe not $7,200 yet, but they are quickly approaching that. The 30 kWh 2016 SV and SL will cause further price drops.

fwiw I just bought a used leaf from a used car dealer who bought it at auction

He sold it to me for $8995 so imagine how cheap he got it at auction

2012 SL with 38,xxx miles (I think xxx was maybe around 100 at the time of auction but I'm not sure I've driven it several hundred miles since then and xxx is 492 right now).

He said he goes to the auction and sees the same care week after week that won't sell at the price the manufacturer wants (he talked about Fords and other cars not just Nissan). He just puts a bid on them waiting for the week they decide to move it at any price.
...
I was very happy with what I saw when I examined the car. Leafspy said 83% capacity, dash showed one bar lost, I drove it 200 miles home and according to leafspy I was the first one to use the chademo port.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

When the Tesla 3 comes out, then we will see what people are willing to pay for. I think they will have a lot of competition so the car will not blow away the market, not by a long shot.

besides what we are really talking about is a 150 mile car for $34,000 or so before incentives verses a 200 mile car "starting" at $35,000 after incentives. With these odds, Nissan is a lock to maintain its lead in the EV race. Now that can change if other players get serious.

Chevy maybe with the Bolt if they grow a pair and do some real distributing. Kia maybe if they can pull their head out, but I see VW making the big moves in the next 2-3 years.


FYI; the Tesla 85 starts at $70,000. anyone know of anyone who bought one for that?

how about $80,000?
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ya, thats what I thought

 

[evnow]

besides what we are really talking about is a 150 mile car for $34,000 or so before incentives verses a 200 mile car "starting" at $35,000 after incentives. With these odds, Nissan is a lock to maintain its lead in the EV race. Now that can change if other players get serious.

How about 200 mile car starting at $35,000 before incentives ? Musk has specifically stated that.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

besides what we are really talking about is a 150 mile car for $34,000 or so before incentives verses a 200 mile car "starting" at $35,000 after incentives. With these odds, Nissan is a lock to maintain its lead in the EV race. Now that can change if other players get serious.

How about 200 mile car starting at $35,000 before incentives ? Musk has specifically stated that.

ya, I know what he said. I think that not reviewing Tesla's pricing changes over the years for all their models before discussing this topic is a mistake.

 

[dhanson865]

besides what we are really talking about is a 150 mile car for $34,000 or so before incentives verses a 200 mile car "starting" at $35,000 after incentives. With these odds, Nissan is a lock to maintain its lead in the EV race. Now that can change if other players get serious.

How about 200 mile car starting at $35,000 before incentives ? Musk has specifically stated that.

ya, I know what he said. I think that not reviewing Tesla's pricing changes over the years for all their models before discussing this topic is a mistake.

Latest interview with musk has this to say about that

That car is the Model 3, and it’s coming out in 2017. ... And it’ll cost $35,000—$27,500 after the tax credit

If you don't know "Wait But Why" his use of supposedly might sound very dismissive but if you want to read it all it is at

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-life.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

the second one is the longer of the two and the one where the quote fresh from Musk is reiterated.

So it'll be $35000 base just like

The starting price of a Tesla Model S is technically $69,900. But if you want the higher-range cars and the faster charging, the price jumps up. There are a bunch of other “well **** now that you mention it yeah I do want that too” features, and a Model S can quickly work its way toward the $100,000 mark.

 

[tkdbrusco]

What you all need to realize is that Tesla has been at least a year behind for every production model they have. Look at the Model S, a year late! Model X? Still not out! and the model 3 is being promised for 2018? more like 2019. And all of this while they still churn out Model S and X. So that price that "includes" the tax credit will be nearly irrelevant by the time it gets to market. By that point Tesla will be at or very near its 200,000 production and possibly into the 12 month roll off period. This is why I am putting a deposit on a Model 3 the second it is announced and then watching production like a hawk to make sure that I'll still have the credit when the car finally gets here. If I see that the credit may be gone by then, I'll be getting a refund and picking up a Bolt or a Leaf2.

 

[TonyWilliams]

What you all need to realize is that Tesla has been at least a year behind for every production model they have. Look at the Model S, a year late! Model X? Still not out! and the model 3 is being promised for 2018? more like 2019. And all of this while they still churn out Model S and X. So that price that "includes" the tax credit will be nearly irrelevant by the time it gets to market. By that point Tesla will be at or very near its 200,000 production and possibly into the 12 month roll off period. This is why I am putting a deposit on a Model 3 the second it is announced and then watching production like a hawk to make sure that I'll still have the credit when the car finally gets here. If I see that the credit may be gone by then, I'll be getting a refund and picking up a Bolt or a Leaf2.

Almost guaranteed to not time out the $7500 for Tesla while the laggard competition are getting it.

The push will be all or none for $7500. It has to be.

 

[Bazooka]

When the Tesla 3 comes out, then we will see what people are willing to pay for. I think they will have a lot of competition so the car will not blow away the market, not by a long shot.

besides what we are really talking about is a 150 mile car for $34,000 or so before incentives verses a 200 mile car "starting" at $35,000 after incentives. With these odds, Nissan is a lock to maintain its lead in the EV race. Now that can change if other players get serious.

Chevy maybe with the Bolt if they grow a pair and do some real distributing. Kia maybe if they can pull their head out, but I see VW making the big moves in the next 2-3 years.


FYI; the Tesla 85 starts at $70,000. anyone know of anyone who bought one for that?

how about $80,000?
.
.
.
ya, thats what I thought

The big question that all car companies -- and we plugheads -- can't answer is: What's the market value of each additional mile of battery range? Not the cost to provide it, but what are people willing to pay for it.

This is why economists like me would so desperately love to see every car company that makes an EV offer a range of battery sizes, including the ability to upgrade within, say, six months of buying/leasing the car for a reasonable price. (You pay the cost difference of the two packs plus 20% and maybe a small swap fee.) With something like that in place, we'd find out very quickly that, e.g. most Leaf, Soul EV, Mitsu i, e-Golf, FFE, etc. drivers are willing to pay for about 120 miles of range, but Tesla drivers won't touch anything under 200. We'd also find out what people think is the minimum range they really need, and what they'd be willing to pay before they simply buy an ICE vehicle.

I don't expect to see any car company offer more than two battery sizes for any one model/trim level, and I certainly don't expect to see them make a post-purchase upgrade option available, at least not until the production volumes are much higher and they can amortize the additional cost of developing, producing, and supporting multiple battery sizes across many more units.

(And for the record, my preference in my Leaf S driven here in the NE US, would be for about 30 or 40 more miles, assuming Nissan didn't price gouge. I've never been stranded, and we've only had to use my wife's Civic instead of my Leaf for non-long-distance driving a couple of times in our 26 months of leasing my car. But the extra flexibility of that additional range would be welcome.)

 

[GetOffYourGas]

I certainly don't expect to see them make a post-purchase upgrade option available

I seem to recall Tesla stating that you can do just this with the Model S. Namely, if you bought a 60kWh (at the time) Model S, you could upgrade to 85kWh later. Or was that tied to the battery swap announcement / availability?

 

[Sublime]

The big question that all car companies -- and we plugheads -- can't answer is: What's the market value of each additional mile of battery range? Not the cost to provide it, but what are people willing to pay for it.

That's an interesting question. If you look at the Model S 60 vs 85, that was $175/mi and they sold tons more 85s than 60s, then again there was also a sizeable performance difference too, not to mention this is a luxury segment.

If we came up with a mythical 124mi range LEAF vs an 84mi LEAF, at $150/mi that would be $6k, I don't think that would sell well. I think $3k for those 40mi is about what the market would bear, which is $75/mi. Taking that number further, at 3.5mi/kW (EPA for the LEAF), that's $262/kWh (ignoring efficiency losses due to additional weight). Battery prices just aren't there yet.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

not sure we are qualified to make comments on battery prices. I personally think the 30 kwh pack will be the new base on the 2017 LEAF II options and will be a few thousand LESS than the current base.

this should allow the "double range" LEAF to be at most just slightly more than current prices.

 

[dhanson865]

What you all need to realize is that Tesla has been at least a year behind for every production model they have. Look at the Model S, a year late! Model X? Still not out! and the model 3 is being promised for 2018? more like 2019. And all of this while they still churn out Model S and X. So that price that "includes" the tax credit will be nearly irrelevant by the time it gets to market. By that point Tesla will be at or very near its 200,000 production and possibly into the 12 month roll off period. This is why I am putting a deposit on a Model 3 the second it is announced and then watching production like a hawk to make sure that I'll still have the credit when the car finally gets here. If I see that the credit may be gone by then, I'll be getting a refund and picking up a Bolt or a Leaf2.

No model 3 isn't being promised for 2018, it's being promised for 2017. I'm fine with you saying it will be a few months late and roll into the next year but I don't agree with randomly rolling it 2 years out just because you say so.

Next the 200,000 mark isn't when the tax credit disappears. It's a soft limit with a phase out period. And it's based on US sales not global production.

Tesla has less than 50,000 in US sales to date and they are selling at a rate of 21,000 a year US. Sure they'll make 60,000+ this year but a chunk of that is for Canada, Europe, Asia, Australia.

Assuming they sell 20,000 between now and end of year 2015 they'll end 2015 at about 70,000 sold in the US. If they sell 40,000 US in 2016 that will get them to 110,000 US by end of 2016. If they sell 60,000 US in 2017 that takes them to 170,000 US by end of 2017. I'm expecting 200,000 US in 2018.

The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters. For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.

Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q1 2018 Full amount
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 50% of full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 25% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 No credit

It doesn't just turn off immediately for car 200,001. And if Model 3 shows up late 2017/early 2018 as I expect, it will get full amount for a quarter or so and then drop to 50% for two quarters, then to 25% for two quarters.

I just don't see the OMG the credit will go away panic being justified anytime before Model 3 deliveries start. I fully expect a Model 3 to be the 200,000th EV Tesla sells in the US.