7.5 kWh of electricity to produce a gallon of gasoline?

[Yodrak]

Yes, refining is complicated.

Many refineries, maybe all, generate electricity for their own use. Some generate more than they need themselves and sell the excess to their friendly neighborhood utility.

Yes, petroleum can be and is used to make other things besides gasoline. But there are limits to how much of what product can be made from a gallon of crude oil. Crude oil is not a single chemical compound that can all be turned into this or that or whatever is in demand today. One part of the refining process is to distill the oil into its various fractions, and from each of the various fractions one can make various products. For example, one fraction can be used to make gasoline an #2 fuel oil, but it cannot be used to make many other petroleum products.

Within each fraction there is some flexibilty to adjust the amount of each product that can be made from that fraction. For example, refineries can adjust the amount of #2 oil they make v the amount of gasoline they make. And they do adjust. Every fall they start making more #2 oil for the winter heating season and less gasoline, and every spring they start making more gasoline for the summer driving season and less #2 oil. But they can't decide to make all #2 oil or all gasoline. They are limited in what they can make by what's in the particular type of crude oil that the refinery was designed to process.

The heaviest fractions are pretty much useless for anything except to be burned as fuel. And, since refineries need heat and electricity, burn it is what they do with it to generate that heat and electricity. They burn some of the lightest fractions and byproduct gasses as well.

So, while this is a very interesting and worthwhile discussion, there is no one single answer to the question.

... I think drees has the correct attitude here - it's complicated. ...

What really counts is how much electricity is supplied direct from the grid that would be otherwise be available to the EVs.

Petroleum can be used to make other things besides gasoline.

 

[evnow]

Therefore, there will be more to go around. And, as you point out, as EV owners become larger in numbers, gasoline prices would likely fall.

That, ofcourse, won't happen.

Every year there are more ICE cars being driven in the world - with China & India adding 20% to 30% growth in vehicles every year.
The supply of oil has been flat in the last 5 years - event hough the price has gone through the roof - indicating peak oil.

Look at it this way. The world has more than 600 Million cars. The most optimistic projections say we will have less than 1% EVs in the world by 2015.

 

[Yodrak]

The environmental excuse isn't total BS. Environmental restrictions are more stringent in the USA than they are in many parts of the world. It's a big fight and usually a loosing battle to get something like a refinery permitted in the USA, so it's cheaper and easier to improve what already exists but build new elsewhere. And more and more of the supply of crude oil is coming from elsewhere. And more and more of the demand is coming from elsewhere, as manufacturing in the US stagnates but increases in 3rd world countries where labor is relatively cheap. Finally, it's just as easy, cheap, and efficient to ship the end product as it is to ship the crude oil. Every thing taken together - refineries are being built, just not in the USA.

As for Leaf bashing, I still haven't heard of people being anti-EV. Anti EV subsidies, perhaps, but otherwise uncaring and uninterested.

Maybe this EV thing is part of the reason why new oil refineries are not being built.
Demand for gasoline and a few other product might start to level off or even wane a bit as EVs become more prevelent.
Certainly not the entire reason, just saying a thought.

It's true new oil refineries aren't being build in the U.S. Big Oil loves to drag out that old argument when gas prices are going up and use it as the reason why. They say it's the fault of the environmentalist. This is of course goes beyond FUD, it's total BS. They actually continue to add capacity to their existing refineries, so they don't need to build new ones. Also their existing refineries continue to get more efficient. And finally, demand for gasoline has been fairly flat for the past sevral years. Why add a lot of capacity if there's no additional demand?

You would think those people railing against the LEAF would instead thank us. We won't be competing with them for their gasoline. Therefore, there will be more to go around. And, as you point out, as EV owners become larger in numbers, gasoline prices would likely fall. Unfortunately that might create additional demand for gasoline, but that's a whole other discussion.

 

[indyflick]

As for Leaf bashing, I still haven't heard of people being anti-EV. Anti EV subsidies, perhaps, but otherwise uncaring and uninterested.

Really? Well simply do a Google news search on "Nissan LEAF" and for those articles that allow feedback, read the comments section. For example, here are the comments from The Cruel Realities of EV Range. This is just one of many.

 

[indyflick]

Therefore, there will be more to go around. And, as you point out, as EV owners become larger in numbers, gasoline prices would likely fall.

That, ofcourse, won't happen.

Every year there are more ICE cars being driven in the world - with China & India adding 20% to 30% growth in vehicles every year.
The supply of oil has been flat in the last 5 years - event hough the price has gone through the roof - indicating peak oil.

Look at it this way. The world has more than 600 Million cars. The most optimistic projections say we will have less than 1% EVs in the world by 2015.

You're right. China's fleet is roughly 10% the size of the U.S. So we would need to remove China's fleet growth year in and year out, simply to stay even and that won't happen. Adding India and the other emerging markets to mix makes the case even worse.

Here's an oil question that I haven't been able to figure out. With oil reserves rapidly depleting, why aren't we seeing strategic hoarding by nations? I suppose you could say the SPR is kinda. But I'm asking why we aren't see nations stop all exporting and even keeping the oil in the ground. We've seen that sort of action recently with foodstuffs.

 

[evnow]

Here's an oil question that I haven't been able to figure out. With oil reserves rapidly depleting, why aren't we seeing strategic hoarding by nations? I suppose you could say the SPR is kinda. But I'm asking why we aren't see nations stop all exporting and even keeping the oil in the ground. We've seen that sort of action recently with foodstuffs.

Because there are no riots - yet.

Individual companies - obviously - have no interest in hoarding for the long term. You would expect nations - esp. ones ruled by autocratic families to hoard. But even they have to balance short term vs long term. Short term mostly wins out - afterall they need to get enough money to feed their people and buy more palaces. Otherwise they risk rebellion.

Still, Saudi King recently told his cabinet to stop explorations and leave the rest of the reserves for future.

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZW20100704000064/Saudi%20King:%20Halt%20To%20Oil%20Exploration%20To%20Save%20Wealth

"I was heading a cabinet meeting and told them to pray to God the Almighty to give it a long life," King Abdullah told Saudi scholars studying in Washington, according to SPA.

"I told them that I have ordered a halt to all oil explorations so part of this wealth is left for our sons and successors God willing," he said.

 

[Yodrak]

Thanks for that link.

I guess you and I have a differenc concept of what 'EV bashing' is. This guy isn't anti-EVs, he is as yet unconvinced that they're ready for prime time. Not the same thing, to me anyway.

And his point of view is as an investment analyst, not an auto buyer. He's not saying don't buy EVs, he's saying that he doesn't think a large segment of the general pubic is ready to buy them and so EV-related companies are not a wise place to invest your money yet if, like most investors, your looking for the best bets to make a profit. In my words, he's uninterested. He's not anti, he's waiting to be convinced.

If the EV enthusiasts are correct, and Leafs fly out of the dealerships like fireworks on the 4th of July, he'll quickly change his investment recommendation from 'wait' to 'buy'.

As for Leaf bashing, I still haven't heard of people being anti-EV. Anti EV subsidies, perhaps, but otherwise uncaring and uninterested.

Really? Well simply do a Google news search on "Nissan LEAF" and for those articles that allow feedback, read the comments section. For example, here are the comments from The Cruel Realities of EV Range. This is just one of many.

 

[Yodrak]

Because the major oil exporting nations have built their economies on selling oil. They need the money. If they leave the oil in the ground for tomorrow, their economies will collapse today.

Once upon a time, about 40 years ago when the major oil exporting countries were economic backwaters and decided to band together and fight 'big oil' to keep some of the money that their oil was earning, they did stop exporting. They had nothing to lose then. And for a while your parents sat for hours in lines miles long in the middle of the night waiting to get a few gallons of gas. If today's batteries had been available then EVs would rule the road today and ICE vehicles would be extinct. But they weren't.

If those countries tried it again today they'd be committing suicide, and they know it. They need to keep their oil flowing, at a price that's high enough to sustain their new lifestyle but not so high as to make the alternatives cost competitive.

The oil will run out on someone else's watch.

I'm asking why we aren't see nations stop all exporting and even keeping the oil in the ground. We've seen that sort of action recently with foodstuffs.

 

[smkettner]

Once upon a time, about 40 years ago when the major oil exporting countries were economic backwaters and decided to band together and fight 'big oil' to keep some of the money that their oil was earning, they did stop exporting. They had nothing to lose then. And for a while your parents sat for hours in lines miles long in the middle of the night waiting to get a few gallons of gas.

I understand the tankers were stacked up waiting to unload. (seen pictures) The embargo was just posturing and had no real meaning because there was nothing to stop other countries from being intermediaries to get oil to the US. OPEC just wanted more money due to the declining dollar due to Nixon taking us off the gold standard. Then Nixon instituted price controls preventing the price inflation but caused any buying of the oil would mean selling at a loss. So basically we just had our own oil to pump and sell for a time.

Just as there was termoil from the US going off a fixed currency it will be a tidal wave of unforseen effects if China was to let their currency float on the market.
I might be wrong but that is how I see it.

 

[indyflick]

Thanks for that link.

I guess you and I have a differenc concept of what 'EV bashing' is. This guy isn't anti-EVs, he is as yet unconvinced that they're ready for prime time. Not the same thing, to me anyway.

It's not the article it's the comments I was pointing you to. The bashing is orchestrated through the comments section. Go out to youtube and read the comments in the Nissan LEAF polar bear ad, as another example.

 

[indyflick]

Because the major oil exporting nations have built their economies on selling oil. They need the money. If they leave the oil in the ground for tomorrow, their economies will collapse today.

In general, I agree with you. However, they all have massive sovereign wealth funds, they don't run their government cash flow "just in time".

 

[evnow]

In general, I agree with you. However, they all have massive sovereign wealth funds, they don't run their government cash flow "just in time".

They actually do - Saudi Arabia gets into a budget deficit below $65 a barrel or so. Iran apparently needs even higher price. SA is keeping the price band we see now - such that it is higher than what SA wants but lower than what Iran wants :shock:

 

[indyflick]

In general, I agree with you. However, they all have massive sovereign wealth funds, they don't run their government cash flow "just in time".

They actually do - Saudi Arabia gets into a budget deficit below $65 a barrel or so. Iran apparently needs even higher price. SA is keeping the price band we see now - such that it is higher than what SA wants but lower than what Iran wants :shock:

The annual SA government budget is ~$165B USD. Their SWF is presently valued at $415B USD. It's self evident they are not running their government "just in time".

 

[Yodrak]

Will do. Thanks again for guiding me to see this side of the issue.

Thanks for that link.

I guess you and I have a differenc concept of what 'EV bashing' is. This guy isn't anti-EVs, he is as yet unconvinced that they're ready for prime time. Not the same thing, to me anyway.

It's not the article it's the comments I was pointing you to. The bashing is orchestrated through the comments section. Go out to youtube and read the comments in the Nissan LEAF polar bear ad, as another example.

 

[Yodrak]

I agree with you that the embargo was just posturing. Actually, it was triggered by the Yom Kippur war not the oil producing countries desire to share in the profits of their natural resource. But regardless of what triggered it, the embargo is the event that gave the then young OPEC the degree of control (which is significant but not absolute) that it has had over oil supply and prices ever since. It gave the organization it's 'teeth', teaching it what it could accomplish if it wanted to.

Whether tankers were stacked up waiting to unload or sitting empty, the bottom line was a real crisis while it lasted, something that only the people who actually experienced it can even begin to appreciate.

Once upon a time, about 40 years ago when the major oil exporting countries were economic backwaters and decided to band together and fight 'big oil' to keep some of the money that their oil was earning, they did stop exporting. They had nothing to lose then. And for a while your parents sat for hours in lines miles long in the middle of the night waiting to get a few gallons of gas.

I understand the tankers were stacked up waiting to unload. (seen pictures) The embargo was just posturing and had no real meaning because there was nothing to stop other countries from being intermediaries to get oil to the US. OPEC just wanted more money due to the declining dollar due to Nixon taking us off the gold standard. Then Nixon instituted price controls preventing the price inflation but caused any buying of the oil would mean selling at a loss. So basically we just had our own oil to pump and sell for a time.

 

[indyflick]

I agree with you that the embargo was just posturing. Actually, it was triggered by the Yom Kippur war not the oil producing countries desire to share in the profits of their natural resource. But regardless of what triggered it, the embargo is the event that gave the then young OPEC the degree of control (which is significant but not absolute) that it has had over oil supply and prices ever since. It gave the organization it's 'teeth', teaching it what it could accomplish if it wanted to.

Whether tankers were stacked up waiting to unload or sitting empty, the bottom line was a real crisis while it lasted, something that only the people who actually experienced it can even begin to appreciate.

There were a lot of after effects from the oil embargo. If think Big Oil figured out a strategy to increase gasoline prices and you see it to this day. Have you noticed the price of gasoline follows a sawtooth pattern going up over time? I believe that strategy was developed as a result of the oil embargo. Over the last few years, for example, gasoline went from ~$2.50 to over $4.00 but then it settled back to ~$3.00 (In CA) and everybody's happy. Yep it's up over 20% and their happy. Their happy because it's down 25% from its high, yipee! Just before the oil embargo gasoline was 0.32 to .034 as I recall. During the crises it doubled to over 0.60. After the crises it fell back to 0.45 to 0.50 and everyone thought it was cheap!

 

[smkettner]

I agree with you that the embargo was just posturing. Actually, it was triggered by the Yom Kippur war not the oil producing countries desire to share in the profits of their natural resource. But regardless of what triggered it, the embargo is the event that gave the then young OPEC the degree of control (which is significant but not absolute) that it has had over oil supply and prices ever since. It gave the organization it's 'teeth', teaching it what it could accomplish if it wanted to.

Whether tankers were stacked up waiting to unload or sitting empty, the bottom line was a real crisis while it lasted, something that only the people who actually experienced it can even begin to appreciate.

There were a lot of after effects from the oil embargo. If think Big Oil figured out a strategy to increase gasoline prices and you see it to this day. Have you noticed the price of gasoline follows a sawtooth pattern going up over time? I believe that strategy was developed as a result of the oil embargo. Over the last few years, for example, gasoline went from ~$2.50 to over $4.00 but then it settled back to ~$3.00 (In CA) and everybody's happy. Yep it's up over 20% and their happy. Their happy because it's down 25% from its high, yipee! Just before the oil embargo gasoline was 0.32 to .034 as I recall. During the crises it doubled to over 0.60. After the crises it fell back to 0.45 to 0.50 and everyone thought it was cheap!

Everbody does the same. Noone complained about selling their house for 400k instead of the 250k they had recently paid during the boom years.
Heck most even cleaned and painted to get the most they could. Why expect differently of the oil companies?

 

[evnow]

The annual SA government budget is ~$165B USD. Their SWF is presently valued at $415B USD. It's self evident they are not running their government "just in time".

Don't take the "just in time" too literally. SA is not about to liquidate the SWF to pay for deficits while hoarding oil for future generations. Remember it is one of the most corrupt governments around ...

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2008/12/saudi-arabias-2009-budget-deficit.html

ps : A detailed look at SA ...

http://csis.org/files/publication/100517_SaudiaBrief_complete.pdf

 

[TRONZ]

Sorta ran through this thread and hit the high spots. Not really interested in a long debate over exact numbers but VERY interested in the overall CONCEPT. I will defer that Nissan's claim is correct (innocent until proven guilty and all that); 7.5 Kwh = 1 gallon of gasoline production = 30 miles in a LEAF. So the most simplistic concept is;

My LEAF uses NO new electricity if it replaces a car that gets 30mpg.

This is a very profound concept regardless of the exact numbers. Some say 1kwh and others 13kwh. 7.5kwh for an all-inclusive "oil reserve to your gas tank" formula sounds about right.

 

[planet4ever]

So, TRONZ, you motivated me to look back through some of the posts here, wondering why your conclusion was different from mine, and I spotted a statement near the end of the real discussion (before it wandered off course) that didn't seem to me to be properly responded to.

@indyflick: Thank you. The light bulb finally went on in my head. So, 6 (or 7.5) KWh of energy go into turning petroleum into a gallon of gasoline. That energy can be used to make gasoline, or it can be used to make other things, such as electricity. That gallon of gasoline will propel the average car 25-30 miles. The same energy, converted to electricity, would propel the LEAF 25-30 miles.

No, I don't believe that is true. The 6 to 7.5 kWh energy equivalent would, by my understanding, be likely to yield around 3 to 3.5 kWh of electricity at your wall plug, and hence around 10-15 LEAF miles. That is significant, but it does not prove that the use of gasoline is ludicrous.

I MUST repeat myself here: I am not trying to justify oil companies or refineries. On the contrary, my dream is to stop using oil altogether as a fuel. But I think we serve our cause badly by making arguments which are not good science. An argument that says, in effect, that oil converted to gasoline is totally wasted compared with using energy directly from electricity is misleading and bad science.