LOS ANGELES — Communities across the United States are looking to replace their dirty diesel buses, ushering in what some analysts predict will be a boom in electric fleets. But transit agencies doing the buying are moving cautiously, an analysis by Reuters shows. Out of more than 65,000 public buses plying U.S. roads today, just 300 are electric. Among the challenges: EVs are expensive, have limited range and are unproven on a mass scale.
A typical 40-foot electric bus costs around $750,000, compared with about $435,000 for a diesel bus. Cheaper fuel and maintenance expenses can lower the overall costs over the 12-year life of the vehicles. But those costs can widely depending on utility rates, terrain and weather. The technology is still a gamble for many cities at a time when bus ridership is falling nationwide and officials are trying to keep a lid on fares, says Chris Stoddart, an executive at Canadian bus maker New Flyer Industries Inc. . . .
Rival electric bus manufacturers expect dramatic growth; the most ambitious forecasts call for all bus purchases to be electric by 2030. But even green-energy advocates are skeptical of such rosy predictions. CALSTART, a California-based nonprofit that promotes clean transportation, figures 50 percent to 60 percent of new buses will be zero emissions by 2030. Market research firm Navigant Research expects electric buses to make up 27 percent of new U.S. bus sales by 2027.
Not quite there yet
Transit agencies have found EV performance lags in extreme conditions. In environmentally friendly San Francisco, officials have resisted electrics over concerns about the city's famously steep hills. "The technology isn't quite there yet," Erica Kato, a spokeswoman for the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, said in a statement.
Weather is also a major challenge.
An electric bus tested last year near Phoenix wilted in the summer heat due to the strains of running the air conditioning. The vehicle never achieved more than 89.9 miles on a charge, less than two-thirds of its advertised range, according to a report by the Valley Metro Regional Public Transportation Authority.
In Massachusetts, two agencies running small numbers of electric buses — the Pioneer Valley Transit Authority in Springfield and Worcester's Regional Transit Authority — say the vehicles weaken in extreme cold and snow. They have no plans to acquire additional EVs, officials at those agencies said. . . .
[Proterra] Chief Executive Ryan Popple said range is improving quickly. The company is currently shipping models with up to 350 miles of range, but new battery technology is expected to boost that by nearly 30 percent.
"We're starting to outstrip the market requirement in terms of what city buses actually do," Popple said. "It opens up new markets for us. . . ."
Despite the technology's limitations, some U.S. transit agencies are hitting the accelerator on their electric conversions. IndyGo, which serves greater Indianapolis, has struck a deal with BYD to purchase 31 electric buses, with the option to add dozens more, in addition to the 21 already in its fleet . . . Agency spokesman Bryan Luellen said the EVs have reduced fuel and maintenance costs by up to half compared to conventional buses.
Foothill Transit, in Southern California, has been operating Proterra buses since 2010. It now has 17 in its fleet, with 13 more scheduled to arrive before the end of the year, according to spokeswoman Felicia Friesema. Still, both agencies acknowledged tradeoffs due to the limited range of these vehicles. Foothill has mainly confined its electric buses to a short 16-mile route. The Indianapolis EVs run primarily during the morning and evening rush hours, not all day long like the diesel workhorses that remain the mainstay of the fleet. . . .