Capacity Loss on 2011-2012 LEAFs

[GRA]

I disagree. The confidence would be correct IF the sampling was truly random. But PIA's survey is volunteer based and advertised in places where Leaf owners with problems are a bit more likely to respond than owners with no problems. So I would not have such real confidence even at 600 responses.... not unless Leaf owners are chosen from random.

That is true that the initial sample is somewhat biased given the recruitment methods used, but that bias will even out to be more representative of a universal sample that was chosen randomly when you reach an optimum sample size for a given universe. For the global universe of LEAFs in service, than minimum number is 600.

How all Leafs are doing on a worldwide basis is statistically irrelevant to U.S. owners living in the desert southwest, and other parts of the country that see prolonged periods of summer highs above 95 F, possibly lower, and similar periods with elevated nighttime lows. We already knew that if you live in an area with a maritime coastal climate such as the PNW west of the Cascades, Japan, or NW Europe, the battery shouldn't have many problems. What matters to U.S. Leaf owners is how the batteries do where people live _here_, where a large area of the country has a climate the Leaf's chemistry and lack of a TMS is ill-suited for and where Nissan nevertheless decided to sell the car without warning potential customers.

It has been the ridiculous and, judging by your trotting out of the same empty argument again, continuing attempt by Nissan to bury hot climate U.S. battery data among either total U.S. or even world-wide battery data to make the data look better that has been among Nissan's most cynical and dishonest massaging of the numbers (along with the claim that Phoenix cars weren't showing significantly higher degradation, but only eventually stating that was based on an annual mileage of only 7,500 vs. 12,000 everywhere else. Yeah, that's really honest, especially when Nissan is leasing the car for 12,000 miles/year in Phoenix rather than 7,500).

To a potential customer living in Sacramento or Palm Springs or Phoenix or Dallas or Oklahoma City or Miami, the fact that the battery is doing fine in Seattle or Portland, let alone Dublin, Kobe or Brussels, is totally irrelevant. They aren't going to be driving or parking the car there, and that's akin to arguing that because a group of people have jumped off the Empire State building and are evenly spaced out on the way down, on average they're at the 50th floor and thus everything's fine.

I've seen it attributed to many people in addition to him, but it sounds to me like something Mark Twain would say: "There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics." Nissan's continuing attempt to use worldwide or all-U.S. data in order to persuade people to draw the conclusion that there's at most a minimal battery problem in hot weather is a classic example of 'statistics'. It isn't going to wash.

If Nissan hopes to convince us that high temps aren't a problem, and claims to be collecting all this battery data on every car whenever they have their annual battery check, let's have them show us the separate results of the data for just four states, out by state: Wa.; Ca.; Tx.; Az. No adjusting mileage or other gimmicks, just the same info that has been put together by owners here, but on a voluntary (and thus inevitably skewed) basis. For that matter, just show us the data for every car in Arizona; we already know the number is far higher than 1% there.

 

[TonyWilliams]

For that matter, just show us the data for every car in Arizona; we already know the number is far higher than 1% there.

Honestly, with 40,000 plus sold worldwide, the 400-ish in Arizona is 1%.

Every Arizona car was 50% degraded, then statistically it's on "outlier" (as has been expressed here many times). Why Nissan just doesn't cut Arizona from further sales just dumbfounds me.

 

[JRP3]

Because that would be an admission of a mistake, and heads would roll.

 

[ZE1]

I agree, they really can't stop selling or leasing in Arizona for that reason. At the same time if they never sold them in Arizona or other places where they were hot, you'd have people who still want them and would get them anyway. I know someone who took a Leaf from across the country before they were available where I live, Minnesota. Although if they knew it was an issue they likely would have make hot climates the last place they opened up to but instead they waited until they had the cold climate package before they sold to the places that the pack would last the longest.

I'm considering waiting until these are past the 5 year 60k and someone is trying to rid themselves of a <8 bar car for cheap, using it until it has less capacity than I need and then picking up a crashed one for parts, sell the thousand dollar headlights and other pricey collision components and replacing the pack. I usually buy cars at the 10 year mark when they are cheap and I think salvage value would make this work out well for me. Then again I'll probably have a more efficient car converted prior to this and forget about it. I did consider buying that $10k salvage Leaf for its battery for my EV project but figured someone would buy it for its battery and other parts so I left it as-is since I'd rather not be a vulture so soon.

 

[theaveng]

What ZE1 said. When the first-year leases expire (2014?), the dealers will suddenly be hit with a bunch of used cars that won't sell. People will be able to walk-off with a cheap Leaf like I was able to walk-off with a brand-new insight for $12,000 (too many insights and not enough buyers).

Honestly, with 40,000 plus sold worldwide, the 400-ish in Arizona is 1%.

A failure rate of just 0.1% was a high enough threshold for the NHTSA to open an investigation into Bosch's fuel pump problem that caused $11,000 in engine damage to Jettas and Gulfs. Of course in that case it caused the car to come to a sudden stop. The Leaf's diminishing battery is not a safety issue. (Perhaps it you could convince them that it is a safety issue, they would act. "My Leaf came to a sudden & abrupt stop at just 40 miles.")

 

[JRP3]

As I mentioned on another board the number of LEAF's sold to date includes a large number of vehicles that are less than 6 months old and will show no degradation at all no matter what the conditions. Eliminate all the vehicles newer than 6 months or so and you'll see a higher percentage of vehicles with capacity loss.

 

[GRA]

For that matter, just show us the data for every car in Arizona; we already know the number is far higher than 1% there.

Honestly, with 40,000 plus sold worldwide, the 400-ish in Arizona is 1%.

Every Arizona car was 50% degraded, then statistically it's on "outlier" (as has been expressed here many times). Why Nissan just doesn't cut Arizona from further sales just dumbfounds me.

Hey,. I was being generous. Flagstaff being a college town, I figure there are probably more Leafs per capita there than other parts of Az., and including those would make the % for the state not look quite as bad

 

[OrientExpress]

If one includes all the LEAFs that are in service north of Prescott, that would probably dilute the number of problem cars in Arizona significantly. Northern Arizona is much more like the rest of the US instead of being like the surface of Mercury!

 

[evnow]

"My Leaf came to a sudden & abrupt stop at just 40 miles."

You could say that - but that would be a lie.

 

[leafkabob]

If one includes all the LEAFs that are in service north of Prescott, that would probably dilute the number of problem cars in Arizona significantly. Northern Arizona is much more like the rest of the US instead of being like the surface of Mercury!

Granted, I don't know what the distribution of leafs is in Arizona, but so far I have not heard of a leaf north of Phoenix/Scottsdale other than the forum member here who has a summer home in the White Mountains. Even Tucson seems to have a fraction of the leafs found in Phoenix. I have a good friend in Prescott who is interested in getting a leaf at some point, and he is unaware of any in Prescott (an ideal place for a leaf, according to Stoaty's model).

Now that I've said this, perhaps we will hear from some Northern Arizona leafers.

 

[Joeviocoe]

"A failure rate of just 0.1% was a high enough threshold for the NHTSA to open an investigation into Bosch's fuel pump problem that caused $11,000 in engine damage to Jettas and Gulfs. Of course in that case it caused the car to come to a sudden stop. The Leaf's diminishing battery is not a safety issue. (Perhaps it you could convince them that it is a safety issue, they would act. "My Leaf came to a sudden & abrupt stop at just 40 miles.")"

Good thing that EV's have a limp mode that prevents a complete shutdown when the battery naturally loses sufficient energy to fully power the car. Furthermore, aren't the Brake booster and Power steering systems powered by an auxiliary 12 volt battery?

From what I understand, the reason why the NHTSA views engine failure as a safety concern are three reasons:
1) Sudden deceleration on the highway.
2) No power brakes (braking pressure is maintained by a pump running from the motor)
3) No power steering (same)

An EV can be designed much safer since the brakes and steering subsystems are electrically boosted. And limp mode (turtle) can be MUCH safer than running out of gasoline on the highway.

 

[spooka]

Just an update on the Phoenix ABC 15 interview that 3 Leaf owners participated in a few months back. I was told today that the interview should air on Monday, Jan 7 during the 10pm newscast. I'm not sure what direction the interview will head in since all 3 interviewed owners have since had their Leaf's repurchased by Nissan. I will look for the broadcast and post the link here after it airs. This will also be broadcast on ABC stations sporadically across the country that are "sister" stations to KNVX in Phoenix.

 

[jspearman]

My wife is tired of playing around with Nissan, and she wants to take legal action. If any of you have recommendations for a lawyer in the PHX area or beyond, please let me know.

 

[spooka]

Just an update on the Phoenix ABC 15 interview that 3 Leaf owners participated in a few months back. I was told today that the interview should air on Monday, Jan 7 during the 10pm newscast. I'm not sure what direction the interview will head in since all 3 interviewed owners have since had their Leaf's repurchased by Nissan. I will look for the broadcast and post the link here after it airs. This will also be broadcast on ABC stations sporadically across the country that are "sister" stations to KNVX in Phoenix.

Here is the link to the story/video.

http://www.abc15.com/dpp/money/cons...wearing-down-prematurely-and-company-responds

 

[opossum]

Heather Moore’s 5th CBS 5 story on this fiasco aired Tuesday night, shortly after the Nissan Town Hall in Scottsdale. Here’s the link to the video...

http://www.kpho.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=8156098" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mason

 

[Joeviocoe]

Heather Moore’s 5th CBS 5 story on this fiasco aired Tuesday night, shortly after the Nissan Town Hall in Scottsdale. Here’s the link to the video...

http://www.kpho.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=8156098" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mason

Why did the reporter say that "the exact specifics of this new warranty will not be made available until the spring"? I thought the details were released a couple of weeks ago, and the warranty won't go into 'effect' until spring.

Jspearman, were aware of the "specifics" of the warranty prior to your statement about it being a "Bandaid"?
Thanks.

 

[JPWhite]

Heather Moore’s 5th CBS 5 story on this fiasco aired Tuesday night, shortly after the Nissan Town Hall in Scottsdale. Here’s the link to the video...

http://www.kpho.com/video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=8156098" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mason

Why did the reporter say that "the exact specifics of this new warranty will not be made available until the spring"? I thought the details were released a couple of weeks ago, and the warranty won't go into 'effect' until spring.

Jspearman, were aware of the "specifics" of the warranty prior to your statement about it being a "Bandaid"?
Thanks.

I believe they are talking about the legal fine print when they say exact specifics. Nissan have yet to share the actual warranty documents, so far they just announced the program.

 

[spooka]

Unconfirmed details of Nissan's battery capacity warranty:
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...af-U-S-?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s

Of note is the last paragraph confirming a 3 bar loss equates to 30% capacity loss. No source provided though.

"A vehicle whose battery has nine remaining bars is retaining approximately 70 percent of its original battery capacity."

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Which has even less info about the warranty than the announcement at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=11043" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

 

[spooka]

^^^
Which has even less info about the warranty than the announcement at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=11043" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

The forum and the topic is so monstrous, it is hard to keep up with where and when new info is being added. Thanks for catching me up.