Do electric cars exist?

[Nubo]

I'd love to extend the range of my 2015 LEAF, but $250/kWh is just too much for a pack two or three years from now, even if support, safety and operability were assured.

$17k is the theoretical price today. Two or three years from now, a 60 kWh upgrade could cost as little as $10k

That I would seriously consider, assuming my car was still mechanically sound otherwise.

 

[golfcart]

I just don’t see the niche that it fills...

If I want a commuter I don’t need 250 miles of range. My 40kWh Leaf is more then enough for my daily commute and weekend errands and will be for the next decade. Why pay for all that extra battery? The residual on my fully loaded 2018 SV lease is $13.4k meaning that is all they expect it to be worth in 2022.

And if I want an ICE replacement there are currently better options available with thermal management and better quick charging for not that much more money. My old 2015S would get about $6500 trade in right now and I could get a used Bolt for low $20s or even a brand new off menu model 3 SR for $38k OTD.

Not to mention there will be Ford, Volkswagen, and numerous other EVs coming out in the next couple years with the full federal credit available. I just see it as a tough sell at that price. If the gen1 Leaf was a more compelling car it might make sense but it’s just a medium sized hatchback with dated styling and performance.

 

[SageBrush]

40 kWh can degrade 50% and be the car that a person was happy with when new-ish.

I don't know if there's a comment in the thread that fewer people would agree with.

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Heh. I meant it would be ~ a 24 kWh LEAF

 

[johnlocke]

Problem with a smaller battery is that it doesn't last long enough to justify the cost of replacing it. You have to charge it too frequently and as the battery inevitably degrades, range still becomes an issue. 40KWH is not big enough to cover loss of range and you could buy a used low mileage 40KWH Leaf for not much more than $17K and still get the warranty. You might get away with 50KWH but the sweet spot is still around 60KWH.

40 kWh can degrade 50% and be the car that a person was happy with when new-ish.

You mean a 20KWH Leaf with 50-60 mile range in good weather? I don't know about you but I find that unacceptable. Far easier to buy a used 40KWH Leaf with better electronics and the remainder of the that 100K battery warranty. probably cheaper too.

 

[johnlocke]

I just don’t see the niche that it fills...

If I want a commuter I don’t need 250 miles of range. My 40kWh Leaf is more then enough for my daily commute and weekend errands and will be for the next decade. Why pay for all that extra battery? The residual on my fully loaded 2018 SV lease is $13.4k meaning that is all they expect it to be worth in 2022.

And if I want an ICE replacement there are currently better options available with thermal management and better quick charging for not that much more money. My old 2015S would get about $6500 trade in right now and I could get a used Bolt for low $20s or even a brand new off menu model 3 SR for $38k OTD.

Not to mention there will be Ford, Volkswagen, and numerous other EVs coming out in the next couple years with the full federal credit available. I just see it as a tough sell at that price. If the gen1 Leaf was a more compelling car it might make sense but it’s just a medium sized hatchback with dated styling and performance.

You buy the bigger battery not for the range but because it holds up better. If you're going to spend that kind of money you need the battery to last a long time, probably 10 years or more. The smaller battery just can't do that even in a mild climate. Range is a straw man issue. Battery life is the real concern. Most people don't take long trips by car and if they do it's once or twice a year. For shorter trips up to 200 mi or so charging is the only problem and that is being addressed. A half hour stop every couple of hours to charge and take a restroom break is doable for most.

 

[LeftieBiker]

You buy the bigger battery not for the range but because it holds up better. If you're going to spend that kind of money you need the battery to last a long time, probably 10 years or more. The smaller battery just can't do that even in a mild climate. Range is a straw man issue. Battery life is the real concern.

Except in cool climates, where OEM Leaf batteries (especially post-Canary) seem on track to last ten years or more.

 

[Anonymous]

Great comments on this last twist, thanks all!

 

[golfcart]

You buy the bigger battery not for the range but because it holds up better. If you're going to spend that kind of money you need the battery to last a long time, probably 10 years or more. The smaller battery just can't do that even in a mild climate. Range is a straw man issue. Battery life is the real concern. Most people don't take long trips by car and if they do it's once or twice a year. For shorter trips up to 200 mi or so charging is the only problem and that is being addressed. A half hour stop every couple of hours to charge and take a restroom break is doable for most.

We can agree to disagree on most of what you said, especially that range is a straw man issue. Sure, a bigger battery will hold up better there are just so many better ways to use that money given that battery costs are going down, charging speeds are going up, and every major manufacturer is planning BEVs (most will have the full federal tax credit) over the next 5 years that'll blow a gen1 Leaf out of the water in terms of performance and features. What is so compelling about a gen1 leaf that you would spend 3x the blue book value on the car just to guarantee it 200 miles of range for the next 15 years? It isn't a '69 Corvette it is just a practical economy hatchback.

Hell, if current depreciation holds I expect a Leaf plus to sell for $20k or less in 2022 when all of the 2019 leases start turning over. So imagine you really like Nissan Leaf and have 2 options in 2022:

Option1 - Take your 2015 Leaf and swap a $17000 battery into it (the car is 7 years old at this point) so that it'll still go 150 miles in 2035 (taking your main argument that it'll hold up better requires that you keep it for a long time).
Option 2 - Sell your 2015 Leaf for $4k and buy a 2019 Leaf Plus for $20k.

I'm taking Option 2 every time. You get better tech, better styling, faster charging, more safety features, cell phone integration, OTA updates, twice the horsepower, and 5 years of remaining battery warranty from the manufacturer for less net cost.

 

[Lothsahn]

If your car magically grew a CHAdeMO port, what price do you think would be appropriate for your ideal ICE-replacement battery?

I'll just like to my answer on Reddit for the question you posted there:
https://www.reddit.com/r/leaf/comments/dnam8r/poll_would_you_pay_12k_to_install_a_60_kwh/f5pa751/?context=3&st=k2bvlaea&sh=71abd296

Basically, what it comes down to, is that I don't view my 2011 1st Gen Leaf has an ICE replacement. I bought it as a local commuter car, and it works great as that. However, I do have days where I run it out of charge. If I could get a 40 kWh pack in the car, it would meet 100% of my needs for that car.

I make a fairly frequent 13 hour drive across the country. We often do it in a single day. Even at supercharger v3 rates, it'd automatically be a 2 day trip. It's going to be hard to replace our ICE for that.

 

[Lothsahn]

40 kWh can degrade 50% and be the car that a person was happy with when new-ish.

I don't know if there's a comment in the thread that fewer people would agree with.

.
Heh. I meant it would be ~ a 24 kWh LEAF

I actually agree with SageBrush here, and know what he was getting at.

My range needs for my Leaf are 15 kWh for 90% of my trips and 12 kWh for 80% of my trips. Below 10 kWh, the car is basically useless to me. This means that if I have a 24 kWh Leaf, I have to discard the car below around 55% SOH (lack of regen braking kills range). If I replace the battery for $8k, I just restart the clock.

If I could get a 40 kWh pack, I can now tolerate a pack down to ~30% SOH. That means that a 70% destroyed pack still works for me. The larger the battery, the less the longevity of the battery matters if you have only short-range needs. That's the point SageBrush was making--and I think it's true.

 

[frontrangeleaf]

For those people who don't make fairly frequent cross-country trips exceeding 400 miles or so, and I'm inclined to believe that's the majority of households, range is a straw-man issue. Battery capacity for those of us living in the snow belt is not. That's almost the same thing, but not quite.

It does all depend on your use case. Having driven the leaf as my daily driver now for 4 months through the end of summer and into genuine winter weather, I'm beginning to appreciate the finer points. Our Leaf is a real car. Not some early science experiment. it drives nice, rides nice, has plenty of power, ample range for our needs even after factoring in winter conditions and whatnot, and is big enough to be genuinely useful. Given the special incentives we enjoy in Colorado, it was also quite affordable and costs next to nothing to operate,

To the OP, No, I wouldn't pay 17k for any first gen Leaf, no matter what the circumstances. It's an outdated design. Find a way to add meaningful cooling and possibly heating to my second gen Leaf+ for reasonable money, and I'll listen much more carefully. But the truth is, I'm not inclined at this early date to be too concerned about that either, given our personal circumstances.

 

[WetEV]

You buy the bigger battery not for the range but because it holds up better. If you're going to spend that kind of money you need the battery to last a long time, probably 10 years or more. The smaller battery just can't do that even in a mild climate.

My 2014 is 5 3/4 years old, and has all battery capacity bars. Last SOC was about 89. Last time I checked the ODO was 56,000 miles.

I might lose a battery bar next summer at this rate. Or the year after that. Almost surely will before 10 years/100k miles. Yes, car is in a mild climate. And I'm not doing as well as some cars around here are.

By the time I might want a new battery, I'd expect I wouldn't be interested.

 

[SageBrush]

Problem with a smaller battery is that it doesn't last long enough to justify the cost of replacing it. You have to charge it too frequently and as the battery inevitably degrades, range still becomes an issue. 40KWH is not big enough to cover loss of range and you could buy a used low mileage 40KWH Leaf for not much more than $17K and still get the warranty. You might get away with 50KWH but the sweet spot is still around 60KWH.

40 kWh can degrade 50% and be the car that a person was happy with when new-ish.

You mean a 20KWH Leaf with 50-60 mile range in good weather? I don't know about you but I find that unacceptable. Far easier to buy a used 40KWH Leaf with better electronics and the remainder of the that 100K battery warranty. probably cheaper too.

Yes about the battery capacity, no about the range. I can rely on 4 miles a kWh, but get closer to 5 miles a kWh in nice weather

 

[WetEV]

You mean a 20KWH Leaf with 50-60 mile range in good weather? I don't know about you but I find that unacceptable.

With a 20 mile commute, this would be very acceptable. National median commute is just under 20 miles round trip.

 

[golfcart]

You mean a 20KWH Leaf with 50-60 mile range in good weather? I don't know about you but I find that unacceptable.

With a 20 mile commute, this would be very acceptable. National median commute is just under 20 miles round trip.

For the right person I agree 100% because how much range one needs is entirely unique to their circumstances. If you have a 150 mile daily commute then you need 250+ miles of range to make sure you can still make that commute in winter 10 years from now but if you only have a 10 mile commute and you're in a two car household (where the leaf is a grocery-getter and commuter) then 60 miles of range is great. That's why I don't get what these other posters mean by "range is a strawman argument"...

 

[Lothsahn]

...you're in a two car household (where the leaf is a grocery-getter and commuter) then 60 miles of range is great. That's why I don't get what these other posters mean by "range is a strawman argument"...

I'm the two car household with a commuter. For me, there's almost no difference between a 150 mile and a 250 or 500 mile EV. So when someone says "but you could get 250 miles for $17k", my response is "how about 125 miles for half that?"

If I had a 250 mile ev, and I could set it, I'd tell the battery to stop charging at 55%, and then I'd just drive it down to 40% before charging. The battery would last a long, LONG time, even if it didn't have thermal management.

Now, once we get Vehicle to Home working, a 70 kWh battery for battery backup for my house would have TREMENDOUS value. I've been quoted $30k for 30 kWh of battery storage. If I could get 70kWh for half that (plus the V2H charger) in my EV, I would be extremely interested.

 

[Anonymous]

If I had a 250 mile ev, and I could set it, I'd tell the battery to stop charging at 55%, and then I'd just drive it down to 40% before charging. The battery would last a long, LONG time, even if it didn't have thermal management.

From what I recall, the Bolt has a setting like that. If it's properly refrigerated, a battery kept between 40-60% could last 30 or 40 years without more than 10-15% degradation. Over that timespan, though, one might have to hedge against new batteries becoming available! If the chemistry is ever worked out on a large scale, people could end up having flow batteries in their garages that hold electrolyte for something like $10/kWh.

Now, once we get Vehicle to Home working, a 70 kWh battery for battery backup for my house would have TREMENDOUS value. I've been quoted $30k for 30 kWh of battery storage. If I could get 70kWh for half that (plus the V2H charger) in my EV, I would be extremely interested.

That's a really interesting perspective! One would think stationary storage would be cheaper than mobile storage, or at least 50% closer to the cost at the pack level, but that hasn't historically been the case. If a Tesla EV's non-battery cost can be qualified as about $600/kWh, it almost seems that a $7k/13.5kWh Powerwall's non-battery cost is still around $400/kWh (despite not needing any of the expensive car hardware). There's plenty of market opportunity there for a company with a good understanding of home/grid safety certification requirements.

Vehicle-to-X, at least on the Leaf's side, seems to be a software update away if not already possible with the right CAN messages. If you already have solar or an off-grid generator, your house is mostly ready to handle the grid/V2H switchover. The same reasons that have held Tesla and Nissan back from actually rolling out V2H/V2X would probably apply to an aftermarket battery manufacturer, though. Suffice to say - probably wise to park your car outside (or in a fire-suppressed garage) if you're using it for V2H.

Save the invention of some retrofit CHAdeMO or CCS port, your LEAF is probably destined for the junkyard around 2025-2027. All of the transport-adjacent benefits from a larger battery disappear without a way to easily access the pack directly.

Aside: the feedback shared in this thread has been super informative. Making useful transportation infrastructure available to lots of people is possible, but it doesn't require junking a quarter million aging EVs or spending $20k to over-upgrade each one. I'll share a bit more about this work in a few weeks and will make sure everyone who's posted here has access of some kind.

 

[SageBrush]

OP: what is your connection to Fenix ?

 

[danrjones]

...you're in a two car household (where the leaf is a grocery-getter and commuter) then 60 miles of range is great. That's why I don't get what these other posters mean by "range is a strawman argument"...

If I had a 250 mile ev, and I could set it, I'd tell the battery to stop charging at 55%, and then I'd just drive it down to 40% before charging. The battery would last a long, LONG time, even if it didn't have thermal management.

I'd be thrilled if my Leaf even allowed me to SET a charge % limit instead of just timers. I know that's a subject that has probably been beaten to death, but who's the idiot at Nissan that did away with it? For God's sake, WHY?

 

[PrairieLEAF]

I'd be thrilled if my Leaf even allowed me to SET a charge % limit instead of just timers. I know that's a subject that has probably been beaten to death, but who's the idiot at Nissan that did away with it? For God's sake, WHY?

Blame the EPA! My understanding is that they docked the official range estimate of the 2011/2012 LEAF due to it having the 80% charge feature, so Nissan removed it.




I would be a hard sell for an aftermarket pack. $17k is quite a bit more than I paid for the LEAF, and as others have mentioned, I find it very usable as is. I enjoy the simplicity of the lack of active cooling (but I'd like to think I'm easy on the battery).