Submitted for comments from the peanut gallery:
Turn in the current 2012 with 5 ($480) lease payments remaining and give them $500 to get into a 2014 S with charge pkg, 36 month lease, 35 more payments of $225/mo incl tax.
Side notes: 31K miles on the 2012, original tires still have just enough tread left to get away with, if we drive it to lease end I'll almost certainly get dinged for a set of tires in addition to the $300 turn in fee
2014 may or may not have the lizard battery. If it does, great, we'll see how it's doing in three years. If it doesn't, that may work out even better, as I would get a new lizard battery as a replacement around the three-year mark. Assumption is that even if they do figure out I opted out of the settlement that would only apply to the 2012, since it's worded into the original warranty on the 2014.
Intent this time would be to buy out the lease if the lizard batteries are holding up better and they didn't try to jerk me around if it turns out to be a pre-lizard car.