Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
Since people won't buy until the cars meet their requirements, that will extend the period of doubling that much further down the road, no pun intended.

The requirements of "the majority" don't figure into the doubling until nearing 50% market share.

Notice again the Norway has past 50%, and it seems just some subsidies were all that was really needed.

EVs are going to be cheaper than ICEs. Sales price, already lower in TCO.


BEVs may eventually be cheaper in sales price (for comparable capability); that's the hope. But almost no one buys a car based on TCO; if they can't afford the upfront price, it doesn't matter if it will be cheaper in the long-term, even if most people did such calcs. As to Norway only needing "just some subsidies", I've previously listed all the subsidies and perks that Norway gives, which is a lot more than "just some". As I've said before, given their scale you've got to wonder why BEVs or at least PEVs don't make up 99% of sales already.

This is the most ignorant retort EVER!! Norway is currently at 91.5% BEVs + PHEVs. Sure it's not 99%, but it's practically there. Oh and you might want to revisit your list of perks, because some of them have gone away already, yet the EV penetration went higher, not lower.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
This is the most ignorant retort EVER!! .
Worse than ignorance, GRA reaches trumper level of dishonesty.

In Norway, the overwhelming financial savings of EV purchase instead of ICE is not having to pay the ICE pollution taxes. That is not a subsidy to EVs, it is a fair accounting of WtW ICE pollution costs
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The requirements of "the majority" don't figure into the doubling until nearing 50% market share.

Notice again the Norway has past 50%, and it seems just some subsidies were all that was really needed.

EVs are going to be cheaper than ICEs. Sales price, already lower in TCO.

EVs may eventually be cheaper in sales price (for comparable capability); that's the hope. But almost no one buys a car based on TCO; if they can't afford the upfront price, it doesn't matter if it will be cheaper in the long-term, even if most people did such calcs.

TCO does matter, or Honda wouldn't be in business. And Honda should be scared.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/



GRA said:
As to Norway only needing "just some subsidies", I've previously listed all the subsidies and perks that Norway gives, which is a lot more than "just some". As I've said before, given their scale you've got to wonder why BEVs or at least PEVs don't make up 99% of sales already.

Norway is reducing these subsidies and perks, as you should know, and sales of BEVs keep rising there and elsewhere. This is global, rather than just Norway.

5Y6S6nI.png
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Norway is currently at 91.5% BEVs + PHEVs. Sure it's not 99%, but it's practically there.
Considering how many niche markets EVs do not yet cover, 91% marketshare is incredible ... if the PHEVs are used as intended.

Are they, in Norway ?

Addendum: My quick googling says that PHEV and ICE are taxed the same in Norway. Isn't that interesting !!?
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Hydrogen will not get the economies of scale needed to become viable, because it literally costs too much and thus is too dependent on subsidies.
Hydrogen will become competive when/if "peak oil" ever comes to pass. If oil gets to $250/barrel, then hydrogen generated from carbon-free sources (especially nuclear) will look much more attractive. At that point it will be profitable to build out an H2 infrastructure even without subsidies.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Norway is currently at 91.5% BEVs + PHEVs.

October sales are in. With no Tesla sales, BEVs and PHEVs have dropped in Norway.

Fallen all the way down to 89.3% of the market.

Almost to "No Plug? No Sale!"
 
oxothuk said:
Hydrogen will become competive when/if "peak oil" ever comes to pass. If oil gets to $250/barrel, then hydrogen generated from carbon-free sources (especially nuclear) will look much more attractive. At that point it will be profitable to build out an H2 infrastructure even without subsidies.

Oil price might drop rather than rise if consumption falls faster than supply.

BEVs are just better cars than ICEs.
 
oxothuk said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Hydrogen will not get the economies of scale needed to become viable, because it literally costs too much and thus is too dependent on subsidies.
Hydrogen will become competive when/if "peak oil" ever comes to pass. If oil gets to $250/barrel, then hydrogen generated from carbon-free sources (especially nuclear) will look much more attractive. At that point it will be profitable to build out an H2 infrastructure even without subsidies.

Oil will never get to $250/barrel, because there are much more valuable uses for oil (see my username) that will encourage hydraulic-frackers to continue pumping. Extracting oil and using it in finished products doesn't release the CO2 into the air and would thus be consistent with a zero-emissions economy.

So H2 needs to reach cost parity to $100/barrel oil (if not cheaper, since fracking is profitable at $80/barrel), and that's just a bridge-too-far to cross.

Right now there are only two inches that Tesla hasn't solved yet where H2 might still be viable: air transport and sea transport.

Better solar panels and kite sails might solve sea transport soon.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
oxothuk said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Hydrogen will not get the economies of scale needed to become viable, because it literally costs too much and thus is too dependent on subsidies.
Hydrogen will become competive when/if "peak oil" ever comes to pass. If oil gets to $250/barrel, then hydrogen generated from carbon-free sources (especially nuclear) will look much more attractive. At that point it will be profitable to build out an H2 infrastructure even without subsidies.

Oil will never get to $250/barrel, because there are much more valuable uses for oil (see my username) that will encourage hydraulic-frackers to continue pumping. Extracting oil and using it in finished products doesn't release the CO2 into the air and would thus be consistent with a zero-emissions economy.

So H2 needs to reach cost parity to $100/barrel oil (if not cheaper, since fracking is profitable at $80/barrel), and that's just a bridge-too-far to cross.

Right now there are only two inches that Tesla hasn't solved yet where H2 might still be viable: air transport and sea transport.

Better solar panels and kite sails might solve sea transport soon.
Tesla hasn’t yet solved the niche of “buyers who can’t afford $45K for a midsize sedan”.

Note that I am not predicting oil will go to $250/bbl, just stating that as a scenario where H2 starts to make more sense.
 
oxothuk said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
oxothuk said:
Hydrogen will become competive when/if "peak oil" ever comes to pass. If oil gets to $250/barrel, then hydrogen generated from carbon-free sources (especially nuclear) will look much more attractive. At that point it will be profitable to build out an H2 infrastructure even without subsidies.

Oil will never get to $250/barrel, because there are much more valuable uses for oil (see my username) that will encourage hydraulic-frackers to continue pumping. Extracting oil and using it in finished products doesn't release the CO2 into the air and would thus be consistent with a zero-emissions economy.

So H2 needs to reach cost parity to $100/barrel oil (if not cheaper, since fracking is profitable at $80/barrel), and that's just a bridge-too-far to cross.

Right now there are only two inches that Tesla hasn't solved yet where H2 might still be viable: air transport and sea transport.

Better solar panels and kite sails might solve sea transport soon.
Tesla hasn’t yet solved the niche of “buyers who can’t afford $45K for a midsize sedan”.

Note that I am not predicting oil will go to $250/bbl, just stating that as a scenario where H2 starts to make more sense.

They did for a while, then parts shortages went out of hand. It'll get solved again.
 
oxothuk said:
Tesla hasn’t yet solved the niche of “buyers who can’t afford $45K for a midsize sedan”.

Note that I am not predicting oil will go to $250/bbl, just stating that as a scenario where H2 starts to make more sense.

With months long waits for most EVs, the current problem is increasing production. When demand is exceeding supply, prices are not likely to fall.

Supply will increase.
 
Pushed for time today, so replies to other's posts will have to wait until tomorrow or maybe Saturday (and jlv was worried about the lack of discussion in this topic!). Meanwhile, both GCC:
MTU Aero Engines and EASA to develop approval requirements for fuel cells in aviation propulsion

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/11/20211103-mtu.html


Germany-based MTU Aero Engines has entered into an innovation partnership with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) to investigate the potential ways forward for future certification of what MTU calls a “flying fuel cell” (FFC)—i.e., hydrogen fuel-cell propulsion systems for aviation.

The hydrogen-powered fuel cell is a promising propulsion concept on the way to emission-free flying and an integral part of MTU’s Clean Air Engine (Claire) technology agenda. Safety is a top priority in aviation, which is why entirely new standards, approval regulations and verification procedures must be defined for the safe operation of the new propulsion concept of the flying fuel cell. . . .

Together with the German Aerospace Center DLR, the engine manufacturer is developing and validating a fuel cell powertrain. A Do228 aircraft will serve as a technology platform and flight demonstrator, equipped and tested in the coming years with a hydrogen-powered fuel cell and a single-sided electric propeller drive.

MTU Aero’s technology roadmap for lower emissions aviation has two main objectives. The first is to refine its Geared Turbofan with revolutionary propulsion concepts—e.g., the water-enhanced turbofan (WET), which uses “wet” combustion to cut NOx emissions and reduce contrails. The second is to electrify the powertrain as far as possible, e.g., with the flying fuel cell.




Honeywell and ZoneFlow Reactor Technology to collaborate on more efficient SMR for hydrogen production

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2021/11/20211104-honeywell.html


. . . This technology promises to provide a step-change improvement in the efficiency and carbon intensity of steam methane reforming for the production of hydrogen.

When coupled with Honeywell H2 Solutions’ carbon capture for hydrogen production, the ZoneFlow technology will make low-carbon hydrogen production from natural gas more efficient and less expensive.

The ZoneFlow Reactor is a structured catalyst module that replaces conventional catalyst pellets in SMR tubes, and provides superior heat transfer and pressure drop performance. . . .

Honeywell’s UOP and ZFRT will cooperate in conducting reactive testing in ZFRT’s large-scale pilot plant at Université Catholique de Louvain in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.

The reactive testing will validate the expected 15% increase in throughput over conventional catalyst pellet systems. Results from the pilot plant testing are expected to be available by mid-2022.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The requirements of "the majority" don't figure into the doubling until nearing 50% market share.

Notice again the Norway has past 50%, and it seems just some subsidies were all that was really needed.

EVs are going to be cheaper than ICEs. Sales price, already lower in TCO.

EVs may eventually be cheaper in sales price (for comparable capability); that's the hope. But almost no one buys a car based on TCO; if they can't afford the upfront price, it doesn't matter if it will be cheaper in the long-term, even if most people did such calcs.

TCO does matter, or Honda wouldn't be in business. And Honda should be scared.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/


Seeing as how the cheapest Model 3 now costs $7k more to buy (currently $45,190) than it did earlier this year, I'm sure Honda execs are quaking in their geta. Of course, gas prices are also up.



WetEV said:
GRA said:
As to Norway only needing "just some subsidies", I've previously listed all the subsidies and perks that Norway gives, which is a lot more than "just some". As I've said before, given their scale you've got to wonder why BEVs or at least PEVs don't make up 99% of sales already.

Norway is reducing these subsidies and perks, as you should know, and sales of BEVs keep rising there and elsewhere. This is global, rather than just Norway.

5Y6S6nI.png


Yet, they remain dependent on subsidies, perks and mandates, here and most places. After all, the Chinese market is the world's largest PEV market, and they've got at least two and maybe all three of the above.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
No wonder I can't get through to you. You actually thought your point was made with that C&D article, despite them reporting the Taycan 4S NOT achieving their EPA results using the exact same 2-speed transmission?

I never said there wouldn't be any improvement with a taller gearing (I did mention the lower frictional losses earlier in this thread chain due to a different final drive ratio). I said that whatever gains wouldn't amount to anything significant (I kept referencing 1%). I think you were hoping for 10%? I deleted all your references, because they pointed to a line of reasoning-by-analogy that completely ignores the data. "oh hey, the Taycan has better hwy range than city range, unlike other EV's ... it must be because of the 2-speed transmission!" - although that might be true, the 2-speed transmission would be compensating for inefficiencies ELSEWHERE (just like in an ICE powertrain). Inefficiencies that probably comes from the transmission itself (each rotating gear/mass introduces frictional losses)! In other words, it's not that the hwy rating was so good, it's that the city rating was so bad!


Since you choose to ignore the data, here's a simple question for you. If the Taycan, like all other current BEVs, had a single speed transmission that used one of the two ratios in its two-speed tranny, which would provide better 0-60 times, the low or high gear? Which would provide better efficiency at say 70 mph cruise? A 5% gain, which is what ZF is claiming, would be useful if that translated directly into range. 259 miles combined (2020+ Bolt) becomes 272 miles. Still inadequate for me, but far more useful. For the sake of argument, let's say that the Taycan with a high gear ratio was half as fast 0-60, 5.2 vs. 2.6 sec. Do I care? No, but I do care about the cruising range.

I held off renting a Bolt until the 2020 arrived, because it offered 259 vice 238 miles EPA combined range for the pre-2020s, and given the lack of charging opportunities along my route (along with what I half-expected and what proved to be the unreliability of my being able to initiate a charge) I wanted every bit of range I could get. Another 10-15 miles is better yet, but I want and need at least 300 (preferably a lot more) to be comfortable.

There's no point playing what-ifs with you, because you don't have a fundamental understanding of mechanics. But just for the sake of entertainment:

1) Porsche did the right call in using a 2-speed, because they DID NOT KNOW HOW else to achieve good acceleration and efficient high speed cruising on the autobahn (where speeds of 155+mph are expected from a porsche). The 2-speed was HORRIBLY INEFFICIENT as evidenced by the fact that their city range was LESS than their highway range. You just have to look at how much more energy is needed to push away air at 75mph versus 30mph to realize that city range for an efficient EV should ALWAYS be longer than the hway range. The fact that porsche had a worse city range shows how incredibly inefficient their power-train was! But they had to use it, because their home market has a use case that demanded it.


Do you think that maybe, just maybe, a single-speed EV's city range is better than highway range because they benefit from lots of regen in stop and go driving, unlike in highway cruising? Or do you think that's irrelevant?


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
2) However, the optimum solution is to drop the 2-speed tranmission (because the extra weight also reduces range) and get an electric motor that had a higher operating range, like the carbon-wrapped motor that Tesla uses. And/or use different gear ratios between the front-motor and rear-motor, because even a 1% improvement is better than none, since you'll have a reduction gear with the extra motor anyway. This is what the former model S uses (back in 2014, the 85d gained 1.5% additional range from this split-reduction-gear arrangement AND stronger regen braking from the additional front motor).


Or, you could build a two-speed transmission that can handle the torque, ans Tesla was unable to do themselves or buy (but Porsche could. I doubt Tesla had the in-house engineering resources, and maybe still doesn't) , and benefit from improved highway range, higher top speed, and AOTBE a quieter cabin at higher speeds.



Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
You have no business judging other people's solutions, because you're misapplying conventional wisdom into non-conventional systems. Wanting 300+ miles of range is fine, but thinking that you know how to achieve that by asking people to reduce the motor power and changing the battery chemistry shows a complete lack of comprehension of the mechanics and factors involved.

Case in point, Tesla's selection of LiFePO4 (a well known LESS energy-dense chemistry) for their new model 3 SR's getting a HIGHER range (not sure about efficiency yet due to additional weight) than their NCA variant shows how you can't just pick things off a macdonalds menu and get a happy meal. Stop judging the work of the engineers, and let their results speak for themselves. You want the longest range EV? That's a Tesla Model S. You want the most efficient EV? That's a Model 3 SR Plus. You want the cheapest, 300+ mile yet efficient EV? That's a Model 3 LR.

The only one ignoring data is you.


Ah, glad you brought up the currently unnamed least expensive Model 3. Since it gets about 10 miles more range than the SR+ but has a 0-60 time that's 1/2 second slower (5.8 vice 5.3 seconds), my guess is that they've increased the size of the LFP pack to match the 3LR's NCA pack, but since it has lower specific energy and energy density than the NCA pack it's heavier than the SR+ and thus reduces the accel. It's also possible that the LFP pack can't produce the necessary power to drive the motor at full power. That certainly would explain the performance changes, as I doubt a gear ratio change would provide that much of a range boost with so little accel reduction. I'm glad someone at Tesla thinks range is more important than accel time for that model, although as it's now $7k more expensive than earlier this year, it's only "least expensiv"e in tesla terms.



Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
We started this thread with you "advising" automakers to reduce the power output of their motors to extend the range that an EV could drive on a fixed charge to 300+ miles. And I told you that you were trying to change physics, because more power comes free with a larger battery, and that simply reducing the power of the motor wasn't going to buy you any significant additional range. You can only get 300+ miles of range with a battery bigger than the 60kwh that's currently being deployed.

Final example to try to get you to understand. The Hyundai Ioniq EV vs. the Tesla Model 3 SR+. The Ioniq's city mpge is 150miles vs. the model 3's rating of only 140miles. Does this prove your point, since the Ioniq has a less powerful motor and doesn't accelerate as quickly as the 3? NO, because the Ioniq is actually 7% lighter than the 3, and city driving range is highly dependent on regen efficiency and vehicle weight! You're barking up the wrong tree with your range vs. power crusade.


Actually, we started this thread by me saying that I valued range over 0-60 times, and that one way to achieve that might be a less powerful motor that was more efficient at cruising speeds, possibly combined with a battery chemistry that was more tilted towards energy than power (for the same volume/weight).

Another way to do that was with a different transmission ratio. But if you don't need power for acceleration, you can use a less powerful and less expensive motor (thus allowing more to be spent on battery capacity for the same price), which is aside from any efficiency advantages that may apply.

Thanks for ignoring the Ioniq (final drive ratio of 7.4:1 for fewer revs) vs. model 3 (final drive ratio of 9:1) example which directly shows a smaller motor AND a taller gear ratio does NOT translate to better efficiency. Sorry, let me correct/clarify this. IF all else were equal, then YES, a taller gear would improve efficiency (however slight that might be), but as evidenced by the Ioniq, there are more gains to be made in other trade-offs. See the above about your qualifications to judge what are "better" trade-offs.


There now, was that so hard?



Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Ha! $500/yr in free electricity is equivalent to $5,000/yr of free H2?!?!

As for the DCFC costs, I think they were over-charged (no pun intended), but that $19M was spent from 2017 til 2020, and is a tiny fraction of the 4,300 fast chargers that were deployed in california. This means MOST of the charging infrastructure was provided by private industry.

No where near equivalent. Hydrogen will not get the economies of scale needed to become viable, because it literally costs too much and thus is too dependent on subsidies.


The largest number of DCFCs deployed in California are probably EA, which is hardly private industry, and many of the rest were subsidized as well; the CHAdeMO Blinks built long before 2017 certainly were. As to future H2 costs, you're entitled to your opinion; companies who are spending billions of their own money to build that infrastructure and the H2 production facilities disagree with you.

Incorrect. Tesla's are the largest number. Although neither are independent entities (as in separate from an automanufacturer), neither are funded by public subsidies


As Tesla is a proprietary standard still only usable by their vehicles, I don't count them. As has been discussed before, they had to build a network themselves because, as Elon said way back when, they "couldn't afford to wait for someone else to."

EA is a different matter, they're non-proprietary and built with funds that would otherwise have been paid to the government as additional fines. The Government has the final say in where and how EA spends the money, it just doesn't pass through the treasury. That is a government-subsidized network. I'm not sure, but while Tesla may have more chargers I think EA now has more stations in California.



Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Excluding EA and Tesla, EVgo has 300 DCFC sites, and Greenlots has 130 DCFC sites. I don't have the totals for Chargepoint, but it's more than Greenlots. Just from those 3 providers alone (assuming the 293 public subsidies went to them), there's already more privately-funded stations than not. Don't get me wrong, the cost of those fast chargers can not be supported by charging fees alone. The stations needs to be paid for by the manufacturers/shareholders who benefit from the stations and written off as a marketing expense, NOT subsidized with public dollars.



Good, we agree that these are subsidized. Many of the EVgo sites were also subsidized IIRR; don't remember about Greenlots, although there are few of those in state.


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
As for the companies who are spending "billions of their own money" to build infrastructure ... baloney. There's fewer than 50 operating H2 stations now, and another 100 coming soon (most of them relying on public subsidies that amounted to over $300M), I can only see less than $500 million (both private and public) being spent on this paltry infrastructure, and most of that coming from the taxpayers, NOT industry.


See what's happening overseas. H2 infrastructure and production is getting lots of private funding.


Still catching up, so will reply to other posts tomorrow.
 
GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
EVs may eventually be cheaper in sales price (for comparable capability); that's the hope. But almost no one buys a car based on TCO; if they can't afford the upfront price, it doesn't matter if it will be cheaper in the long-term, even if most people did such calcs.

TCO does matter, or Honda wouldn't be in business. And Honda should be scared.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/


Seeing as how the cheapest Model 3 now costs $7k more to buy (currently $45,190) than it did earlier this year, I'm sure Honda execs are quaking in their geta. Of course, gas prices are also up.

"Est. Delivery: June"

Even with a higher price, Tesla doesn't seem to have much problem selling them. Eventually the chip shortage will end, auto production will catch up, and prices will fall.




GRA said:
WetEV said:
GRA said:
As to Norway only needing "just some subsidies", I've previously listed all the subsidies and perks that Norway gives, which is a lot more than "just some". As I've said before, given their scale you've got to wonder why BEVs or at least PEVs don't make up 99% of sales already.

Norway is reducing these subsidies and perks, as you should know, and sales of BEVs keep rising there and elsewhere. This is global, rather than just Norway.

5Y6S6nI.png


Yet, they remain dependent on subsidies, perks and mandates, here and most places. After all, the Chinese market is the world's largest PEV market, and they've got at least two and maybe all three of the above.

BEVs are less dependent, unlike FCEVs, and many BEV sales are made today with no subsidies, perks or mandates.

FCEVs are dead, unless increasing amounts of subsidies are spent.
 
WetEV said:
"Est. Delivery: June"
No, it's now Oct 2022, if you configure the cheapest 3. Be sure to double check color, wheel and interior choices.

And, there was the price increase (https://insideevs.com/news/545712/us-tesla-model3y-prices-up1000/) that I confirmed. Cheapest 3 is now $44,990 + $1,200 dest and doc fee = $46,190.
 
cwerdna said:
WetEV said:
"Est. Delivery: June"
No, it's now Oct 2022, if you configure the cheapest 3. Be sure to double check color, wheel and interior choices.

And, there was the price increase (https://insideevs.com/news/545712/us-tesla-model3y-prices-up1000/) that I confirmed. Cheapest 3 is now $44,990 + $1,200 dest and doc fee = $46,190.
You are correct, sorry.

Cars.com shows 27 Toyota Mirai cars in stock, all in California, offering prices MSRP or below. That's about a month supply at current sales rates. Honda Clarity is worse, but it's canceled. OK, not as bad as a Jeep Compass.

On the other hand, Ford Mach-e is mostly offered at $5,000 to $10,000 over MSRP.
 
I doubt many people would want to buy a new Mirai unless they drove very little. Per https://www.toyota.com/content/dam/toyota/brochures/pdf/2021/MY21_Mirai_Owner_Benefits.pdf, the "free fuel" benefit of $15K or 6 years is if you purchase (assuming the benefit is still valid). If they drove a ton, if they'd seen H2 prices, they'd likely want to dump it soon after the free fuel runs out.
 
GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
Since you choose to ignore the data, here's a simple question for you. If the Taycan, like all other current BEVs, had a single speed transmission that used one of the two ratios in its two-speed tranny, which would provide better 0-60 times, the low or high gear? Which would provide better efficiency at say 70 mph cruise? A 5% gain, which is what ZF is claiming, would be useful if that translated directly into range. 259 miles combined (2020+ Bolt) becomes 272 miles. Still inadequate for me, but far more useful. For the sake of argument, let's say that the Taycan with a high gear ratio was half as fast 0-60, 5.2 vs. 2.6 sec. Do I care? No, but I do care about the cruising range.

I held off renting a Bolt until the 2020 arrived, because it offered 259 vice 238 miles EPA combined range for the pre-2020s, and given the lack of charging opportunities along my route (along with what I half-expected and what proved to be the unreliability of my being able to initiate a charge) I wanted every bit of range I could get. Another 10-15 miles is better yet, but I want and need at least 300 (preferably a lot more) to be comfortable.

There's no point playing what-ifs with you, because you don't have a fundamental understanding of mechanics. But just for the sake of entertainment:

1) Porsche did the right call in using a 2-speed, because they DID NOT KNOW HOW else to achieve good acceleration and efficient high speed cruising on the autobahn (where speeds of 155+mph are expected from a porsche). The 2-speed was HORRIBLY INEFFICIENT as evidenced by the fact that their city range was LESS than their highway range. You just have to look at how much more energy is needed to push away air at 75mph versus 30mph to realize that city range for an efficient EV should ALWAYS be longer than the hway range. The fact that porsche had a worse city range shows how incredibly inefficient their power-train was! But they had to use it, because their home market has a use case that demanded it.


Do you think that maybe, just maybe, a single-speed EV's city range is better than highway range because they benefit from lots of regen in stop and go driving, unlike in highway cruising? Or do you think that's irrelevant?

No. Because that would mean that Porsche was lazy and didn't optimize their regen braking as best they could. At city speeds, a Porsche is effectively a single-speed EV anyway. Their range being poor is due to the inefficiencies of the 2-speed transmission and their EPA numbers attest to that.



GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
2) However, the optimum solution is to drop the 2-speed tranmission (because the extra weight also reduces range) and get an electric motor that had a higher operating range, like the carbon-wrapped motor that Tesla uses. And/or use different gear ratios between the front-motor and rear-motor, because even a 1% improvement is better than none, since you'll have a reduction gear with the extra motor anyway. This is what the former model S uses (back in 2014, the 85d gained 1.5% additional range from this split-reduction-gear arrangement AND stronger regen braking from the additional front motor).


Or, you could build a two-speed transmission that can handle the torque, ans Tesla was unable to do themselves or buy (but Porsche could. I doubt Tesla had the in-house engineering resources, and maybe still doesn't) , and benefit from improved highway range, higher top speed, and AOTBE a quieter cabin at higher speeds.

Here you go again, proffering your unqualified "solutions". Armchair quarterbacking is fine for sports, but is dumb in engineering.


GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
You have no business judging other people's solutions, because you're misapplying conventional wisdom into non-conventional systems. Wanting 300+ miles of range is fine, but thinking that you know how to achieve that by asking people to reduce the motor power and changing the battery chemistry shows a complete lack of comprehension of the mechanics and factors involved.

Case in point, Tesla's selection of LiFePO4 (a well known LESS energy-dense chemistry) for their new model 3 SR's getting a HIGHER range (not sure about efficiency yet due to additional weight) than their NCA variant shows how you can't just pick things off a macdonalds menu and get a happy meal. Stop judging the work of the engineers, and let their results speak for themselves. You want the longest range EV? That's a Tesla Model S. You want the most efficient EV? That's a Model 3 SR Plus. You want the cheapest, 300+ mile yet efficient EV? That's a Model 3 LR.

The only one ignoring data is you.


Ah, glad you brought up the currently unnamed least expensive Model 3. Since it gets about 10 miles more range than the SR+ but has a 0-60 time that's 1/2 second slower (5.8 vice 5.3 seconds), my guess is that they've increased the size of the LFP pack to match the 3LR's NCA pack, but since it has lower specific energy and energy density than the NCA pack it's heavier than the SR+ and thus reduces the accel. It's also possible that the LFP pack can't produce the necessary power to drive the motor at full power. That certainly would explain the performance changes, as I doubt a gear ratio change would provide that much of a range boost with so little accel reduction. I'm glad someone at Tesla thinks range is more important than accel time for that model, although as it's now $7k more expensive than earlier this year, it's only "least expensiv"e in tesla terms.

The bolded part shows that you finally get it. And LFP packs are generally known for being able to discharge more power (and safer) than the other chemistries, so power wouldn't be an issue. So although an increase in kwh is likely, whether or not it got increased to the LR's size is not. The increased weight of the vehicle leading to slower 0-60 times is also more likely (specs of the china SR+ shows it being 120kg heavier than the Fremont SR+).


GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
Actually, we started this thread by me saying that I valued range over 0-60 times, and that one way to achieve that might be a less powerful motor that was more efficient at cruising speeds, possibly combined with a battery chemistry that was more tilted towards energy than power (for the same volume/weight).

Another way to do that was with a different transmission ratio. But if you don't need power for acceleration, you can use a less powerful and less expensive motor (thus allowing more to be spent on battery capacity for the same price), which is aside from any efficiency advantages that may apply.

Thanks for ignoring the Ioniq (final drive ratio of 7.4:1 for fewer revs) vs. model 3 (final drive ratio of 9:1) example which directly shows a smaller motor AND a taller gear ratio does NOT translate to better efficiency. Sorry, let me correct/clarify this. IF all else were equal, then YES, a taller gear would improve efficiency (however slight that might be), but as evidenced by the Ioniq, there are more gains to be made in other trade-offs. See the above about your qualifications to judge what are "better" trade-offs.


There now, was that so hard?

Are you so happy with that caveat that you've missed the point entirely (especially with the model S 85 vs. 85D comparison)? Less than 1.5% improvement (and most of that was from the higher regen from having a motor in the front). Stop proposing a reduction of motor power as the key to longer usable range, as it is NOT. There are better places to extract range from costs (like cheaper cell chemistries - aka LFP). You've already demonstrated that you're incapable of analyzing the data.


GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
GRA said:
The largest number of DCFCs deployed in California are probably EA, which is hardly private industry, and many of the rest were subsidized as well; the CHAdeMO Blinks built long before 2017 certainly were. As to future H2 costs, you're entitled to your opinion; companies who are spending billions of their own money to build that infrastructure and the H2 production facilities disagree with you.

Incorrect. Tesla's are the largest number. Although neither are independent entities (as in separate from an automanufacturer), neither are funded by public subsidies


As Tesla is a proprietary standard still only usable by their vehicles, I don't count them. As has been discussed before, they had to build a network themselves because, as Elon said way back when, they "couldn't afford to wait for someone else to."

EA is a different matter, they're non-proprietary and built with funds that would otherwise have been paid to the government as additional fines. The Government has the final say in where and how EA spends the money, it just doesn't pass through the treasury. That is a government-subsidized network. I'm not sure, but while Tesla may have more chargers I think EA now has more stations in California.

EA is a government-subsidized network?! No. Full stop. You can play word games all you want, but you won't deceive anyone. California had no choice in VW's settlement with the EPA, and it wasn't my tax dollars that went into building those EA stations. The more you write, the more you come across as an industry shill.


GRA said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Excluding EA and Tesla, EVgo has 300 DCFC sites, and Greenlots has 130 DCFC sites. I don't have the totals for Chargepoint, but it's more than Greenlots. Just from those 3 providers alone (assuming the 293 public subsidies went to them), there's already more privately-funded stations than not. Don't get me wrong, the cost of those fast chargers can not be supported by charging fees alone. The stations needs to be paid for by the manufacturers/shareholders who benefit from the stations and written off as a marketing expense, NOT subsidized with public dollars.



Good, we agree that these are subsidized. Many of the EVgo sites were also subsidized IIRR; don't remember about Greenlots, although there are few of those in state.


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
As for the companies who are spending "billions of their own money" to build infrastructure ... baloney. There's fewer than 50 operating H2 stations now, and another 100 coming soon (most of them relying on public subsidies that amounted to over $300M), I can only see less than $500 million (both private and public) being spent on this paltry infrastructure, and most of that coming from the taxpayers, NOT industry.


See what's happening overseas. H2 infrastructure and production is getting lots of private funding.


Still catching up, so will reply to other posts tomorrow.

So now you're comparing domestic subsidies against global expenditures just to change the context?

Is it NOT obvious that GRA is just an industry mouthpiece? Or at best, a hydrogen apologist?!
 
Back
Top