Stoaty said:
GRA said:
What you or I think makes sense for other people doesn't matter, it's what they think. and right now, most of them don't think that a BEV is viable for them.
No, most people haven't even thought about it, but that is because this is a new technology and people haven't become accustomed to it yet.
That's certainly a factor, but the reason most haven't thought about it is that there's no compelling reason for most of them to do so; the info is out there. Put it this way, if you were suddenly diagnosed with a currently incurable form of cancer, you'd be pretty likely to start informing yourself of new developments in cancer treatment, wouldn't you?
Stoaty said:
Same thing happened with the Prius, which is now selling like hot cakes. The Leaf is ahead of the Prius on the adoption curve.
The situations are completely different. The first generation of the Prius was introduced at a time when gas sold for $1.50/gallon or less, and when dealers couldn't keep what cwerdna refers to as BROD-class SUVs in stock. The car was mediocre in every way except for mpg, resembling the eminently forgettable Echo. Toyota didn't make a dime off it (and didn't expect to). So what happened? From 2004 to the end of 2006, gas prices doubled and then in 2008 spiked to around $4.50/gallon (I saw $4.67 locally). Meanwhile, in 2004 the 2nd generation Prius was introduced, which was considerably less mediocre, more fuel efficient, and provided greater utility. And sales took off.
Current PEVs, OTOH, were introduced in 2010, when gas had pretty much settled at $3.50-$4.00 gallon, so of course people saw more value in them initially (at least, with government incentives). But that advantage may well be leveling off, as people have adjusted to the idea of current gas prices over the long term, judging by some of the recent news stories:
"SUVs And Crossover Utility Vehicles Now Outsell Sedans In U.S."
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1093349_suvs-and-crossover-utility-vehicles-now-outsell-sedans-in-u-s" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
and
"Average Fuel Economy for New Cars Dips to 25.5 MPG in June"
http://www.edmunds.com/car-news/average-fuel-economy-for-new-cars-dips-to-255-mpg-in-june.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We'll have to see whether the last is just a momentary blip, but taken together with the first story it's not encouraging, although it's partially compensated by the shift from SUVs to more fuel-efficient CUVs.