Is the Leaf obsolescent?

[Desertstraw]

If so, leasing is the only sensible thing to do.

1. http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/07/new-test-appears-to-back-range-claim-for-battery/
"The inspection organization Dekra has done independent tests for DBM and, once again, the pack seems as good as promised. In a press release, DBM said Dekra tested a 63 kilowatt-hour Kolibri battery, which uses lithium-metal-polymer battery cells, in an A2 on a chassis dynamometer. It found that the car was capable of traveling 455 kilometers, about 283 miles, on a single charge."
2. BYD taxis
"Fifty (50) of the BYD’s e6, five(5)-seat crossover vehicles, each with a range of over 160 miles (250-300 Km) and a top speed of 88 mph (or 140km/h) have been in service at Shenzhen-based Pengcheng Electric Taxi Company since April 29, 2010. The Shenzhen e6 Taxi fleet has now accumulated ~1,730,000 all-electric miles (or 2.77 million kilometers) while being rapid charged in 20-30 minutes."
3. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2011/05/la-ev-charging-stations.html
"Batteries are the "heart" of electric vehicles, he (Secretary Chu) said, adding that the Department of Energy is funding research that will drop the cost of electric-vehicle batteries 50% in the next three or four years and double or triple their energy density within six years so "you can go from Los Angeles to Las Vegas on a single charge," he said. "These are magical distances. To buy a car that will cost $20,000 to $25,000 without a subsidy where you can go 350 miles is our goal."

 

[ElectricVehicle]

The LEAF is far from obsolete. Try to order and take delivery on any of these innovations today. And let us know how much they cost.

The LEAF is here, now... after waiting a few months for your orders, but we're getting them. It's also fairly inexpensive and quite capable at it's price point compared to other EVs and EVs coming on the market in the next year or two.

Will there be something better in 5 years? Yes! One of them will be future versions of the LEAF. The LEAF is an excellent EV today and at it's price point, it's a great solution to have for 3-8 years... or more, as other EVs become available and come down in cost while going up in range. For the next 3 years, I really don't see much that matches the LEAF in functionality, range and performance at a similar price point. Spending $10,000 - $50,000 more opens up some interesting possibilities like the future Tesla Model S or the Roadster, the Toyota / Tesla powered RAV4 EV and the Ford Focus Electric though I haven't heard range or pricing for the Ford yet.

The LEAF is a great vehicle for the next 3-8 years, which is close to the time frame people tend to keep a vehicle. In 5-10 years there will be something better in terms of range, cost etc. That's part of what makes this an exciting time to start driving Electric and be part of that progress!

 

[Lopton]

The Leaf is the current cutting edge (at it's price point) yes if you wait for the future better options will be available. But that is always the case, yes in the future there will always be something cheaper and better.... Does that mean you don't buy a computer now? or a cell phone?

As far as I can tell the next big step improvement will be the Tesla Model S at double the price tag will get you you double the mileage. Beyond that it's all pipe-dreams... I choose to enjoy having a car that meets my expectations now and enjoy it.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

my 3G moto X is then obsolescent because it runs on 3G cellular technology and the Moto Droid Bionic runs on 4G technology which is 10-20 times faster, has the ability to do data/voice simultaneously, latency is 55-80 ms, ....yada yada yada...

so why dont i have one? same reason you dont have one

now the Bionic is a real product and is "supposed" to be out this month. it was demo'd at CES in January so it will be here...eventually.

obsolescence does not address viability or need. if range and battery management is the only thing on the table then we all shoulda got Teslas.

 

[abasile]

If that Dekra battery turns out to be all that's hoped for, perhaps there will be a possibility of swapping out first-generation LEAF batteries for Dekra batteries. On the other hand, internal combustion cars will indeed be obsolete. Who needs to burn expensive, polluting, foreign-sourced liquid fuel when you can go 300+ miles in a reasonably-priced electric vehicle? Sure, there will still be some uses for internal combustion vehicles. But I'd expect resale values to drop like a rock.

 

[smkettner]

I think option 3 is a bit optomistic.

 

[dday]

Of course the Nissan leaf is obsolete! Everything that comes to market is obsolete. They are already working on the next version when they sell you the “current” one, everything you buy in technology is that way. :shock:

 

[TRONZ]

The only cars headed for the scrap bin of history are the gas powered daily drivers. I for one love exotic cars/bikes and believe they will always live on. BUT with much cheaper fuel as the bulk of cars on the road are replaced with EV's. Think how cool (and rare) vinyl records are now for a glimpse at the gas exotic cars future... or popularity of digital cameras for a peek at the EV's eventual dominance. Sorry Kodak. For a test of this, walk through any random parking lot and inventory the cars in it. Probably +95% of them would benefit from being electric. How many hand-sanitizer wielding soccer moms would not want the clean smooth ease of an EV minivan or wagon? Sure, there is a place for the smoke and noise of certain machines...just not running errands between Ralphs and CVS.

Cars get more "digital" with every new model. The final leap is replacing the "analogue" gas engine with a fully integrated "digital" drive system. The LEAF does that. It is the most highly produced and sold EV in the world. Period! And Nissan is just getting warmed up. Bottom line. The LEAF battery is plug-and-play upgradable. This essentially makes it future proof and quite possibly... getting better with age.

 

[Train]

Indeed, if we always waited for the next better version of cellphone, computer, digital camera, TV, and others, we'd never get anything.

It's always evolving. Always something a bit better with the new one. More features, faster, lighter, "better than ever before!"

This is the 086 of EV's. Mass produced, mass marketed. There will, of course, be EV's that will have longer range, more features, and exciting new technology.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

This is the 086 of EV's....

oh no!! this is probably Pentium 3 class at least!

my Zenn was definitely in the 16 bit category!

 

[Stanton]

Far from obsolete, the Leaf is cutting edge. The only thing that's "obsolescent" is your use of the English language.

 

[Desertstraw]

Far from obsolete, the Leaf is cutting edge. The only thing that's "obsolescent" is your use of the English language.

I guess that you learned English in Texas.
'Many people assume the word “obsolescent” must be a fancy form of “obsolete,” but something obsolescent is technically something in the process of becoming obsolete. Therefore it’s an error to describe something as “becoming obsolescent.”'

 

[LKK]

Is a B-52 obsolete? They've been flying for 50 or 60 years, but they still do the job. Ditto with the Leaf, or any other EV. Batterys will improve and more importantly, will decrease in cost, so 8, 10 or 15 years from now replace the original battery with a new one that's a third of the price and goes 3 times further. Meanwhile think about your drivetrain, very few moving parts, very benign operating temperatures, no explosions and hot exhaust gases to deal with. Conclusion, very high reliability, it should last forever. So maybe you have to change springs and suspension bushings and redo the interior, but the car should continue to be useful for far longer than conventional automobiles.

 

[Stanton]

Conclusion, very high reliability, it should last forever. So maybe you have to change springs and suspension bushings and redo the interior, but the car should continue to be useful for far longer than conventional automobiles.

I think you've come very close to the car (service) dealer's greatest fear: that EVs will kill their service/parts business. Even if/when you replace the battery pack (most likely with something much better), they're losing out on all the "nickel and dime" maintenance revenue.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Conclusion, very high reliability, it should last forever. So maybe you have to change springs and suspension bushings and redo the interior, but the car should continue to be useful for far longer than conventional automobiles.

I think you've come very close to the car (service) dealer's greatest fear: that EVs will kill their service/parts business. Even if/when you replace the battery pack (most likely with something much better), they're losing out on all the "nickel and dime" maintenance revenue.

nahh. creating a unique car pretty much dispels that myth. there will always be parts needed. if dealers survived on replacing engines only, they would not survive.

 

[Train]

Not to mention hop up parts. Can't wait to see the first hi-po crate motor offered for the Leaf.

Instead of a nitrous bottle, you'll pop the trunk and reveal dive tank sized capacitors.

"You ought to hear this sucker whine when I hit the cap juice. Sounds like a frickin' Pratt and Whitney I'll tell ya."

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i actually see EVs as easy way for dealers to greatly expand their mod line ups. i have always wondered why they lagged in this dept so far.

 

[Desertstraw]

Is a B-52 obsolete? They've been flying for 50 or 60 years, but they still do the job. Ditto with the Leaf, or any other EV. Batterys will improve and more importantly, will decrease in cost, so 8, 10 or 15 years from now replace the original battery with a new one that's a third of the price and goes 3 times further. Meanwhile think about your drivetrain, very few moving parts, very benign operating temperatures, no explosions and hot exhaust gases to deal with. Conclusion, very high reliability, it should last forever. So maybe you have to change springs and suspension bushings and redo the interior, but the car should continue to be useful for far longer than conventional automobiles.

A typewriter works as well as it always did you but cannot buy them anymore. A film camera can still produce great pictures, but who buys them.

As for simply replacing and putting in better parts, who does that with computers? It is cheaper to buy a new computer. I have replaced everything but the masterboard in my various computers but it isn't worth the trouble.

As for your B-52 example, would anybody use one in a real war? Military planes with pilots may be obsolescent.

 

[Packet]

"You ought to hear this sucker whine when I hit the cap juice. Sounds like a frickin' Pratt and Whitney I'll tell ya."

I want to be able to open my LEAF and see a Tesla coil. It's horribly impractical, but would be awesome nonetheless.

That said, I still shoot film. I shoot digital as well, but there are lots of us who still find film useful in certain areas. (Digital photography can't yet capture the same dynamic range -- without doing special exposure-blending post-processing -- that good black and white film can, for instance, so B&W photography is still more practical to do on film than digital.) Just because something's old doesn't mean it doesn't still have a place.

 

[Desertstraw]

A new entry: http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/37607/?mod=chfeatured
It seems almost certain that there will soon be better batteries.