DaveinOlyWA said:
trying to get a good line on trucks but initial findings looks like only about 20-30% of truck sales are headed for domestic use. most are fleet purchases for use primarily to perform business function.
this is not an easy figure to run down as many people who are required to use a truck also use it for personal transportation. my brother in law was a prime example. when building bridges in OR (he was also laid off) he was provided a company truck, a Ford F-350 which got 10 mpg on a good day. he used it as his personal vehicle as well since his job required him to drive all over the Pacific Northwest including some jobs that required him to live away from home for extended periods. so hard to classify him as there are no doubt many others doing the same.
but that does not change the fact that truck sales have plummeted as well AND we have a heck of a lot more drivers today than 5, 10 or 20 years ago.
I agree that pickup trucks and vans are more likely to be used as work vehicles, which is why the original classification was made. But SUVs are primarily passenger vehicles, and it was the lobbying of auto companies that kept them classified as trucks so that they wouldn't have to meet the stricter mileage, emissions and safety requirements of passenger cars. As to sales, they are certainly down from the U.S. peak of 16.56m, which was reached in 2006, and then declined to 16.15m in 2007, 13.2 million in 2008 as the recession kicked in, 10.4 million as the recession bottomed out in 2009, and then rising since then to 12.8 million last year, with perhaps 14m or more this year (if nothing major happens).
While the population with a driving license is higher, demographic and social factors are changing sales patterns. As with gas company execs who have stated that they think they will never sell more gas in the U.S. than they did in 2006 (due to more efficient cars and people driving fewer miles), many auto execs doubt they will ever exceed the total of new car sales set then. This is due to a variety of factors, increased cost being one you mention below. There is also the fact which I think I mentioned upthread, that Gen Y teens see having a car as much less important to them than having an internet connection. Where Boomers and Gen X saw a car as giving them freedom to do things with their friends or as part of their image, Gen Y is 'with' their friends 24/7 via their phones, and look at cars much more as appliances than most of our generations did. Some of the difference is no doubt due to tougher regulations for teen driving, but while 80% of 18 yr-olds had driver's licenses in 1983, only 66% have them now, which scares the auto companies no end. I don't know how things were in your family, but the first car for a teen in mine was usually a hand-me-down from parents who'd bought a new car to replace it.
Add to that an aging population (many of whom drive little), better built cars that last longer, an increasingly urban population, higher prices (and economic worries) causing people to keep cars longer (as I mentioned up thread, new cars are being kept an average of 6 years vice 4.5 prior to the recession), and people driving less for a variety of economic and other reasons so cars don't wear out as fast, and there are many reasons why new car sales totals are unlikely to exceed 2006's.
DaveinOlyWA said:
There is a LOT of motivation in this country to go green but for many, even ones with relatively high incomes, they have much less options than we do due to bad credit.
there is an article at PC about the New Car Market losing as much as 7 million potential customers by 2025 due to an estimated $3,000 increase in the cost of cars to meet new CAFE standards. now, how they got that number is anyone's guess but they said this would a change from $30,000 for new car today to $33,000 for a new car in 2025. its really just more FUD since i am guessing in 13 years, inflation will cover most of that difference.
And fuel savings will likely cover most of the rest.