Only 3300 leafs will be available by march? Nissan Denies.

[evnow]

But the 3300 is divided between all launch areas, and we don't know how many of those would come to just California.

How many did you think were coming to US before you saw this news ? How much for California - and what would be the difference ?

 

[stanley]

I thought that half of the aprox 13,000 to be produced by March 31 would be coming to the US

 

[stanley]

I thought that half of the aprox 13,000 to be produced by March 31 would be coming to the US

 

[leafster]

Well, I was under the impression it was around 6,000 or so. But its not so much the number that surprises me its the fact that the car may not be here until later than January. I was/am expecting it by January with a September order date. If this still happens then I'll keep my order.

 

[mitch672]

I'm probably not going to bother with the Leaf, in my area availability is "fall/winter 2011".
Besides that, I can get the PICC 40-60 mile EV PHEV for my existing 2010 Prius for about $12k at the end of THIS year

Even though the total cost is higher ($33K Prius and $12K conversion), my actual cash outlay is less, my 2010 is all paid for already. My daily commute is also 34 miles, so I will still be mostly gas free, and when the pack is empty, it's still a Prius...

http://www.ewertenergy.com/

 

[Gonewild]

Well I hope I will be getting one. After all the EV project is here to HELP :mrgreen: I don't mind being one with a car no one else has. That would be nice for onces.

 

[evnow]

If you reserved on Apr 20th and you are in the initial rollout state, you are virtually assured of getting Leaf by Mar '11.

Anyway, remember this 3,300 as the Mossy dealer said, keeps changing ...

 

[garygid]

The EwertEnergy Prius conversion is currently only for the 2004 - 2009 (Gen2) models.

Their FAQ says that they are working on a conversion for the 2010 (Gen3) Prius.

Looks like an interesting conversion, apparently changing the Prius firmware to operate differently.

Hopefully they will be able to increase the battery size somewhat.

Does anybody here actually have one of these Prius conversions?
Thanks, Gary

 

[Gonewild]

Well I am in an roll out area Phoenix and have a August order date. I hope it comes in at the end of Dec and I take delivery on Jan 1, 2011

 

[mitch672]

The EwertEnergy Prius conversion is currently only for the 2004 - 2009 (Gen2) models.

Their FAQ says that they are working on a conversion for the 2010 (Gen3) Prius.

Looks like an interesting conversion, apparently changing the Prius firmware to operate differently.

Hopefully they will be able to increase the battery size somewhat.

Does anybody here actually have one of these Prius conversions?
Thanks, Gary

Gary,

I don't want to hijack this thread, there is already another thread for that.
The Ewert brothers have a beta version for the Gen III Prius (2010), it was tested and competed at the "Green Drive Expo" MPG challenge in Madison, a month or so ago. Here is the link, but lets discuss in the other thread.

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=23691

http://www.pluginconversions.com/picc_pressrelease61009.html

Yes, there are alternatives for the Leaf, that was my main point.

mynissaleaf Ewert Energy thread:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=971

 

[planet4ever]

Its not about the 2400, I was prepared to spend that, but I won't spend it without a clue of when the car is coming. Obviously anyone who spends it won't backout, so I will make my decision before spending 2400, plus the 5000 if the incentives are gone.

I think the whole thing is an unfounded rumor, but even if it isn't, I don't see the problem. It sounds like you were planing to go with the AV charging dock. If so, they aren't going to install it, and money won't be deducted from your account, until shortly before the Leaf arrives. If you want to go ahead and put in a different charging dock, that would be no problem, either, assuming you want to get some EV or even some pluggable hybrid eventually. Your dock will work with any of them.

 

[garygid]

Thanks a BUNCH.

I had missed the important part about using totally revised control software, and that a 2010 kit, with the substantially INCREASED 40-mile EV-mode (12.5 kWh) battery ... was actually being tested.

This will be a real possibility for me.

Thanks again for your kind and helpful answer!

 

[Jay]

Just thought I would pop in and say there is no special subset city inside the state that gets LEAFs any quicker than another. I just talked to Nissan Product Planning today about it. Nissan specifically told me that this GM had no special insight.

Also, same goes for those new production estimates/allocations in this thread. I'm not saying he didn't hear it from someone, who heard something...but I am telling you what I got straight from the executive.

 

[LakeLeaf]

Nissan has stated many times that Oppama, Japan LEAF capacity is 50,000 units annually. It would not be unreasonable (and is often the case with a new vehicle) to start production at less than maximum capacity until such time that all systems are thoroughly verified to be operational at their intended level of quality. 50,000 divided by 12 is 4,166 units per month at full production. This production is for global consumption in Japan, US and Europe. If production is reduced initially and ramped up to maximum, it is highly likely that 3,300 US deliveries for the first four months of production is not out of the question. There have already been reports that European delivery has been delayed. If vehicles are being retained for the Japanese market (which, coincidentally, has the highest LEAF sales price (almost $41,000 before government incentives)) these numbers may prove to be right on. Just something to think about.

I was under the impression that the assembly line was starting to run in November with the plan to reach full production before December. From what my friends who work on some of GM's lines tell me, once a line has been retooled for a new vehicle, they pretty much just start to pump them out. In other words - it's a very steep ramp. Don't forget to add a couple of weeks for shipping to the manufacture date. There are guys in PriusChat how are experts at tracking their cars from the line, to a particular ship, and that ship to a port in the US. There is a whole website set up for ship tracking. And don't forget that the engine and transmission on the Leaf are way easier to make then an ICE car.

If Nissan is unable to hit full production by the beginning of December, I'd start looking at supply chain issues rather then all this talk about what features will be included or not included. There are just a few things unique to this car - with the batteries being the biggie. If Nissan can't hit full production, I'd be looking to see if the battery plant has been able to hit it's targets for both quantity and quality. The batteries are really the big item of concern, not which charging ports it might of might not have. Nissan knows how to design cars, how to manufacture cars, and how to deliver cars. If they can't deliver what they planned - look to the supply chain for Leaf unique parts.

Nissan has dumped a lot of money into this car and they are under pressure to get cars to market to start to recoup some of the investment. They certainly aren't going to hold up production because some actuarial can't make a call on a couple of hundred dollar part. They can't go back and tell suppliers to delay shipments by a few weeks of months. If they don't hit full production in December - they've got a big issue going on. They are going to be sitting on top of tens of millions of dollars of Leaf parts that they've taken delivery of from their suppliers, or worse - they'd be paying their suppliers to warehouse that stock.

Remember that in addition to all of the orders, they have dealers they need to get test cars too. They can't afford to delay except for some show-stopper issue. If the cars do just trickle out, I'd place my bet on battery manufacturing issues. There will be tremendous pressure on the company to get these things out the door. If they really do only manage to crank out 1000 a month, I'd be extremely cautious about buying one.

So anyway - I'd expect there to be over 6000 vehicles produced by the end of the year - 2000 in Nov and 4000 in Dec, with 4000 every month after that as long as demand exists for the volume. So according to my math, every one of the 18,000 pre-orders should be manufactured by the end of March - except that dealers also need to get cars. I'd guess by mid-2011 you will be able to walk into a dealer and buy a Leaf from the floor.

In what order they distribute those cars is anyone's guess. It does seem reasonable to ship first to Japan where the margins are higher, the buyers more sympathetic, and the cost of shipping any later-then-last-minute changes minimal. OTOH, the big market is really the US, so getting this market started is important too, and Europe is a pretty big place too. I don't suspect they will make many big delivery plan changes. These things should be coming off the boats so fast that Nissan has nothing to gain by playing major out-of-order delivery games.

 

[stanley]

Lakeleaf, I live in California and I pre-ordered my Leaf on May 15. My calculations say there were about 10,000 nationwide orders ahead of me by then and about 5,000 in the original launch States ( maybe as many as 7000). I have an order date of January. A January order date probably means I will receive delivery in the May time period. What do those facts suggest to you concerning production?

 

[TimeHorse]

Born there...Santa Monica Hospital...1961....

But I don't live there any more...I use Cali all the time...mostly because it pisses off my Cali friends and family...

Worse is calling San Fransisco "Frisco"--ha they hate it. San Fran will always be just "The City" to me...that's what we would write on the cardboard when we hitch hiked from Berkeley into the city.

California in the 60's and 70's...gah, fun times...doubt those strange and wild yet innocent years will ever be recaptured...heck, we were poor as hell yet live on 3rd street in Santa Monica in a big old house...I highly doubt that is the case today.

Gavin

Yes- Frisco is the worse and San Fran is second in line. The "city" is correct. Don't do it Gavin, I will find you and send you off to Jersey where they love those terms

Wait, I thought you guys were the "Bear Flag Republic", you lot of 49ers!

 

[evnow]

I thought that half of the aprox 13,000 to be produced by March 31 would be coming to the US

That was never going to be the case. If they make 13K by end of March, they can't deliver all 13K by end of March.

We know the capacity is supposed to be 50,000. So, 4,000 per month. But they will have a slow ramp up. Let us assume My March they have ramped up to 4,000. So, by Feb they have produced 9,000 units. Half of that is bound for US - so 4,500.

So, 3,300 is not far off.

I guess 300 in December and 1,000 each after that. So all initial states will get about 50 to 60 each in December.

 

[evnow]

Nissan's clarification to nissan-leaf.net

Thankfully, the only news I have to report is good…specifically that according to Nissan, Mr. Kamins projections on worldwide production, and more importantly to us, deliveries in the US are not backed up by Nissan themselves, and are “purely speculative on Mossy’s part.” While adding that “Production allocation is based on number of customer orders. Our order window opens in a few weeks. The general manager has no special insight.”

I’m not sure if it was some corporate humor to clarify the original rollout areas, but they also took the time to reiterate, “5 states (not cities) start deliveries in Dec. We add Texas and Hawaii in January. The SE (south east) from DC, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, south to Florida and Georgia,” summing the whole thing up, by once again assuring the ’rest’ of the US by adding, “then balance of the country by Fall 2011.”

 

[evnow]

I was under the impression that the assembly line was starting to run in November with the plan to reach full production before December. From what my friends who work on some of GM's lines tell me, once a line has been retooled for a new vehicle, they pretty much just start to pump them out. In other words - it's a very steep ramp.

But this is not an ICE car. If you read the interview with TN plant manager - she was talking about many challenges unique to EVs.

Don't forget to add a couple of weeks for shipping to the manufacture date. There are guys in PriusChat how are experts at tracking their cars from the line, to a particular ship, and that ship to a port in the US. There is a whole website set up for ship tracking.

So, how long does it take to go from factory to dealer ?

Nissan has dumped a lot of money into this car and they are under pressure to get cars to market to start to recoup some of the investment.

Nobody thinks of "recouping investment" now. That is years away. Now they just want to ship the cars at the right quality.

So anyway - I'd expect there to be over 6000 vehicles produced by the end of the year - 2000 in Nov and 4000 in Dec, with 4000 every month after that as long as demand exists for the volume.

You have completely missed the part where Ghosn said they will make 13K cars by end of March. Also, they start making cars in October. My estimate of production is this ...

October '10	   500
November '10	1,000
December '10	2,000
January '11	 2,500
February '11	3,000
March '11	   4,000

 

[TimeHorse]

The SE (south east) from DC, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, south to Florida and Georgia,” summing the whole thing up, by once again assuring the ’rest’ of the US by adding, “then balance of the country by Fall 2011.”

Was that an intentional dodge? No months given for the "South East" (which officially consists of the Atlantic South of the Mason-Dixon: MD, DC, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL and the non-Atlantic state of AL.

If Texas and Hawaii orders are to be filled in January, it sounds like we may not get our cars until Fall 2011 too; we may get them earlier than the forgotten 36, but there's nothing firm to say we get anything before then, then. Originally, they quoted April for the SE, as they call it (last time I checked, MS and LA were in the SE, but then why no NM either??) and I would not be surprised if mine were ready as early as then, but I really wish they'd give more details on the December and January orders already. Oh, well.