Pike Research Report re: BEV sales/forecast

[dandrewk]

Here is a link to the Pike Research report on BEV's that I've seen quoted recently. This is the free executive summary, which covers many of the salient points.

Interesting stuff, most of which I think most here would agree upon. My only quibble is it seems a tad conservative. I see critical mass potential for BEV sales, maybe when Honda/Toyota/Ford get deeper into the market. There's a lot of curiosity about our cars, many waiting until after the first generation before getting serious. It's only a question of time...

http://www.pikeresearch.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/PEV-12-Executive-Summary.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[adric22]

Interesting.. However, I'm confused as they say that PHEVs will sell more than BEVs, but the chart they provide next to that paragraph shows the opposite.

I'm also not convinced about this line, "Toyota will bypass Nissan and GM in North American PEV sales by 2013." From what I can see, Toyota is just barely dipping their toe in the water, while Nissan and GM are developing brand awareness in that field of technology. When somebody says "electric car" people generally think of either Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, or maybe even Tesla. I don't think anyone thinks "toyota" at this point. Not to say it couldn't change in the future, but certainly not by 2013.

 

[dandrewk]

Those are worldwide sales. So, interestingly enough, PEV's are wayyyy more popular in Asia than PHEV's. In the USA, it's just the opposite.

While true, I kinda doubt it will a permanent truth. As PEV's extend their range, I think more and more buyers will choose all-electric.

I was wondering about Toyota as well. Besides the PIP and forthcoming RAV4, have they announced anything? If not, no way will they surpass Nissan and GM this year or even next. Maybe a BEV Camry? Now THAT would be hot.

 

[GRA]

Those are worldwide sales. So, interestingly enough, PEV's are wayyyy more popular in Asia than PHEV's. In the USA, it's just the opposite.

While true, I kinda doubt it will a permanent truth. As PEV's extend their range, I think more and more buyers will choose all-electric.

I was wondering about Toyota as well. Besides the PIP and forthcoming RAV4, have they announced anything? If not, no way will they surpass Nissan and GM this year or even next. Maybe a BEV Camry? Now THAT would be hot.

Scion iQ EV (fleet sales only, at least initially):

http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2012/06/scion-iq-ev-wont-be-available-to-buy.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;