Resale value question??

[evboy]

I read a article this morning on yahoo that the leaf will have the worst resale after 3 years. it does mention if the 7500 was accounted for it would hold 50% after 3 years. anyway, they said after 3 years the car would be worth about 10,500. Since next month is 3 years, i went to kbb.com and punched in a 2011 leaf with 36000 miles and it was worth about 15,900. PPV/good condition.

they are way off on their numbers. if the car was 31k new, and you subtract 7500, you get 23500 new. thats 7500 depreciation after 3 years, which works out to about 30% depreciation in 3 years. most normal toyotas depreciate 30% after 3 years. is this irresponsible journalism , or am i missing something here. can someone share their experiences selling their leaf 2 or 3 years later and what you received for it, or give input on this topic, if you have friends in the car biz.

 

[KJD]

The other day OrientExpress posted some comments about auction value.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=220#p340816" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The other thing to consider is that most of the LEAF's out there are leased. Most of those leases expire after about 3 years. This may be a further drag on resale value over the next 6 months.

 

[Weatherman]

Another thing to consider is that a lot of people, who bought 2011 and 2012 MY LEAFs, paid in the upper $30K to around $40K for the car, when all the taxes and fees are included. Even if they got the full $7,500 tax credit when they filed their tax return, they still spent around $32K for the car. If you could sell a 2011 for somewhere in the upper teens, you're doing good. So, it has lost around half of its value in three years.

 

[mwalsh]

^ CA owners of (most if not all?) 2011's, thankfully, paid $5000 less.

 

[HighDesertDriver]

^ CA owners of (most if not all?) 2011's, thankfully, paid $5000 less.

I don't recall when the CA rebate was reduced, but deliveries after August 2011 qualified for only $2500. Because of funding delays, even those rebates were delayed a few months. Those bumps did not reduce our enjoyment of the Leaf; however, the cold weather, reduced battery capacity and lower Michelin efficiency have begun to increase our ICE miles lately.

 

[smkettner]

Net Net I paid $25,350 for my 2011 SL with no L3. The $5,000 CA rebate ran out before fiscal year end 6/30/2011 IIRC and the new funding 7/1/2011 was at the $2,500 level.

I assumed my vehicle was worth no more than $20,000 as I drove off the lot. Expecting to lose $2,000 per year so after three years I expected to be at $14,000. Current prices seem to be within my expectations.

 

[Valdemar]

About a week ago I listed my 2011 with QC port with 42k miles on Craigslist for $16,800 just to gauge interest. 0 leads so far.

 

[GaslessInSeattle]

About a week ago I listed my 2011 with QC port with 42k miles on Craigslist for $16,800 just to gauge interest. 0 leads so far.

my sense is that the shoulder season between spring and summer is the best time to sell on the open market... the terrible stories of lost range due to cold in winter subside and the din of concern about hot weather permanent range loss has yet to really pick up "steam", so to speak. right about now would be amongst the worst times to sell, I would imagine. I gave up right about now last year and waited till dealers where willing to wheel and deal with their last of 2012's in feb of 2013 and I traded in, paid off my loan and essentially converted to a Lease that ends in 2015. It was a bit goofy to trade in a 2012 for a 2012, but I did get out from under 7 years of car payments, most of which would have been under water. who knows what we will do in 2015, I'm keeping my options open.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I read a article this morning on yahoo...

Something else to consider.

 

[cwerdna]

I read a article this morning on yahoo...

Something else to consider.

I wonder if it was the same one I posted about at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=340478#p340478" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I read a article this morning on yahoo...

Something else to consider.

I wonder if it was the same one I posted about at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=340478#p340478" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

It would be worth looking into who produced the report. There are companies out there who exist to produce reports that say what whoever pays them want them to say. Like the one that "proved" the Prius is an environmental nightmare...

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
ALG is not an unknown that just suddenly popped up, nor is Forbes.

That said, I posted about http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=11237" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; awhile ago.

And then there's the company Demand Media which just pays people to write essentially crap, so that they can earn ad revenue. I posted about them at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=258727#p258727" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

 

[edatoakrun]

About a week ago I listed my 2011 with QC port with 42k miles on Craigslist for $16,800 just to gauge interest. 0 leads so far.

my sense is that the shoulder season between spring and summer is the best time to sell on the open market... the terrible stories of lost range due to cold in winter subside and the din of concern about hot weather permanent range loss has yet to really pick up "steam", so to speak. right about now would be amongst the worst times to sell...

Right about now resale values seem relatively low, but I doubt it has much to do with the season or the "din".

I think that the demand for used BEVs and resale prices have closely followed gas prices, and will in the future.

Valdemar, at $16,800 I think you are asking at least $1,000 over the current CA private party price, which is further depressed by the $2,500 rebate on new LEAFs.

But I think you'd probably have sold it the first day for your asking price, if gas was still well over $4 a gallon.

 

[Valdemar]

^ A week ago KBB's PP Very Good Condition number was at $16,800. I've just checked and it is down to 16k. Yes, I didn't expect I could sell my car for that much, but the listing price is not that much off either, and if there was any interest someone, as it usually happens, would ask me if I was willing to negotiate.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Besides the incentives (Federal tax credit, CVRP, etc.) is the fluctuating prices ('11 to '12 price increase, '12 to '13 price decrease), the addition of the cheaper S trim and dealers willing to deal all complicate things.

If one pays MSRP on a new '13 Leaf S at $28.8K, they get the benefit of the $7500 Federal tax credit and $2500 CVRP. And, no savvy shopper should be paying MSRP.

I agree that gas prices affect the resale value. Prius prices tend to fall when gas prices are "low" and rise when they're "high".

 

[Valdemar]

Sort of related question, is it possible to get a payment from a dealer when trading a car in and leasing a new one, instead of counting the trade-in towards cap cost reduction? In other words, trade the car in, start a 0-down lease, and walk away with cash received for the trade-in. I suspect it will be difficult, on good terms anyway.

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
I dunno, but I've personally sold a used car (my former 04 350Z) to a Nissan dealer before and got cut a check. I wasn't buying anything from them.

I had another friend sell her old Accord to a Honda dealer. She wasn't buying any car from them either. She'd bought a new '11 Prius from the Toyota dealer next door and the Toyota dealer wasn't going to give her much on the trade. The Honda dealer was willing to give her roughly double what the Toyota dealer offered.

 

[user 10599]

When it comes to journalism quality, you really have to watch what you read and take stock in.

When I was in B-school, a professor indicated he knew an English major who took 1 intro to business class. When she was hired by a newspaper, they made her their business correspondent because she was the only one with any business background.

As a professional accountant, I'm constantly astonished at the reckless financial advice common in journalism. All to often, the journalist starts with a pre-conceived notion, e.g., choice x is bad, and then lightly searches for bits of info that support that position. I can't tell you how many times I've found horribly flawed financial calculations in articles.

I recommend sticking with sources that at least put some vigor into their analyses and seem to do some sort of professional peer review before going to press. Consumer Reports and Wall Street Journal are examples of good information sources. Too much journalism is really entertainment and very misleading.

In terms of resale value, I'm inclined to trust KBB, AutoTrader or Edmunds data as that is their business - they should know better than just about anyone else what the going prices are. And geography and seasonality will play significantly in those valuations. For example, in So. Calif., I have good success at buying good, used Mercedes well below the estimated values - we are flooded with these vehicles here. Locations with lots of Leafs coming off lease will probably see quite a price shock if everyone with one dumps it. But I really don't have the data to be saying it will be $x and therefore if it is a good value or bad value. And I don't see it likely that some yahoo has that type of data either. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[LeftieBiker]

That's right, Darth, and when I wrote that companies exist to fabricate, more or less, data I wasn't talking about just the unknown, fly by night businesses. Just look at what happened in the mortgage business...