Southern California Blackouts

[coolfilmaker]

With the San Onofre nuclear plant down there are likely to blackouts this summer. I think we all need to make sure that we aren't part of the problem. It could lead to some really bad press.
Here is a link to get alerts so you know when to not charge:
http://www.fypower.org/flexalert/alert_signup.html

I think we should also come up with some figures about the relative insignificance of our power draw. I don't know how many leafs are in Southern California but I think it's less than 5000. If 5000 leafs simultaneously plugged in, they would only use 16.5 Megawatts of power or .7% of the power generation capacity of San Onofre. It would nice if someone could write a press release in case someone writes a negative article blaming power outages on EVs this summer.

 

[smkettner]

Register just ran an article that at least one reactor would be up in the next 60 days IIRC.
And the HB plant would love to come back on line if needed. Don't count on any blackouts.

 

[ENIAC]

Also, the Sunrise Powerlink will be coming online shortly even given all of its construction issues.

 

[adric22]

I suppose if you felt you "had" to plugin during a peak power time, you could always use the L1 as a compromise.

 

[thankyouOB]

With the San Onofre nuclear plant down there are likely to blackouts this summer. I think we all need to make sure that we aren't part of the problem. It could lead to some really bad press.
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are you serious? :lol: that must be a joke, right?

really, there arent enough Leafs in all the world, let alone in SoCal to make a difference on peak load. I mean, we have folks who run their AC 24 hours a day for weeks at a time in the summer in LA and most of OC and San Diego that isnt within 3 miles of the beach, plus millions of electric dryers and ranges.

Did I mention the hottubs and wine coolers? Now, they could really get some bad press.

 

[ENIAC]

With the San Onofre nuclear plant down there are likely to blackouts this summer. I think we all need to make sure that we aren't part of the problem. It could lead to some really bad press.
.

are you serious? :lol: that must be a joke, right?

really, there arent enough Leafs in all the world, let alone in SoCal to make a difference on peak load. I mean, we have folks who run their AC 24 hours a day for weeks at a time in the summer in LA and most of OC and San Deigo that isnt within 3 miles of the beach, plus millions of electric dryers and ranges.

Did I mention the hottubs and wine coolers? Now, they could really get some bad press.

Did you read what the OP wrote? They're not saying it's true, they're simply suggesting a pre-emptive strike.

 

[smkettner]

Already been suggested that it is air conditioner load not EVs.
Edison has no axe to grind, they will enjoy the additional demand.

 

[thankyouOB]

Did you read what the OP wrote? They're not saying it's true, they're simply suggesting a pre-emptive strike.

Yes, eniac, i went over the top.
But blame the Leafers and EVers for the blackouts?
As the wag once said: Bring it on!

 

[adric22]

You know. If somebody ever does blame EVs for blackouts, you could always come back and say "Well, I thought you said nobody was buying them!" So both problems can't be real.

 

[Nubo]

With the San Onofre nuclear plant down there are likely to blackouts this summer. I think we all need to make sure that we aren't part of the problem. It could lead to some really bad press.
.

are you serious? :lol: that must be a joke, right?

really, there arent enough Leafs in all the world, let alone in SoCal to make a difference on peak load. I mean, we have folks who run their AC 24 hours a day for weeks at a time in the summer in LA and most of OC and San Diego that isnt within 3 miles of the beach, plus millions of electric dryers and ranges.

Did I mention the hottubs and wine coolers? Now, they could really get some bad press.

It doesn't have to be a widespread blackout. Witness how the press handled the Volt battery fires. Any blemish no matter how small, will be exploited by the blogosphere and then the national news. All it would take, imho, would be one or two transformer incidents where a couple of neighbors had electric cars charging during a Flex Alert, etc... Doesn't have to be the cars' fault.

 

[walterbays]

I think we should also come up with some figures about the relative insignificance of our power draw. I don't know how many leafs are in Southern California but I think it's less than 5000. If 5000 leafs simultaneously plugged in, they would only use 16.5 Megawatts.

It's true that Fox News would never let facts get in the way of a good story, but I think even your 16.5 MW is high.

According to EV Project data (estimating some from tiny graphs - they don't give raw numbers for everything), about 95% of charging is done at home, and of that portion 93% is done off peak. For the 5% of charging done at public stations only 33% is done off peak. So 622 EV's tracked in the EV Project put a peak load on the grid of only about 100 KW. http://theevproject.com/downloads/documents/Q2 EVP INL Report.pdf

At that rate if there are now 5000 EV's in Southern California and if drivers took no action at all to curtail their peak charging during power emergencies, then they would create a load of about 800 KW, or 0.03% of the capacity of San Onofre.

For perspective, that's the same load as if the entire population of Octillo (400) all decided to dry their hair (1875W) at the same time.

Or if the entire population of Chula Vista (270k) all decided to brush their teeth (3W) at the same time.

Or if the employees of Point Loma Seafoods (50) all turned on their central air conditioning(15 KW) at the same time.

Or if 50 people out of 23 million Southern California residents all turned on their central air conditioning at the same time.

 

[Nekota]

The Huntington Beach Generation Station is a natural gas steam plant and if the local nuclear plant remains shutdown it would be very likely to see the steam station's 1&2 units come back online. The link below shows the preparations for reactivation have been in progress.

http://articles.hbindependent.com/2012-04-18/news/tn-hbi-0419-aes-20120418_1_aes-units-eric-pendergraft-aes-southland" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Aeolus]

Given my estimate that 40% of LEAF owners generate solar electricity, and almost all the charging is done at night, the net effect of LEAF owners on peak hour power usage is to very positive.

 

[JeremyW]

The Huntington Beach Generation Station is a natural gas steam plant and if the local nuclear plant remains shutdown it would be very likely to see the steam station's 1&2 units come back online.

The units in question are 3&4, which are older less efficient natural gas fired boilers driving steam turbines and are rated at 450 MW combined. They can stay up till November it seems, but they were originally scheduled for permanent retirement in January, which meant they already had started plugging/cutting the gas line and the boilers by the time San O went down. Guess they will patch it back up just enough to run it for the summer.

Here's the report from the California ISO: Briefing on Summer 2012 Operations Preparedness (PDF)

SDG&E is looking pretty tight in terms of capacity. :| Lets hope Sunrise Power Link comes online ASAP!

I've got enough battery backup here that I can survive rolling blackouts if need be. :lol:

Jeremy

 

[hill]

I think we should also come up with some figures about the relative insignificance of our power draw. I don't know how many leafs are in Southern California but I think it's less than 5000. If 5000 leafs simultaneously plugged in, they would only use 16.5 Megawatts.

It's true that Fox News would never let facts get in the way of a good story, but I think even your 16.5 MW is high.

According to EV Project data (estimating some from tiny graphs - they don't give raw numbers for everything), about 95% of charging is done at home, and of that portion 93% is done off peak. For the 5% of charging done at public stations only 33% is done off peak. So 622 EV's tracked in the EV Project put a peak load on the grid of only about 100 KW. http://theevproject.com/downloads/documents/Q2 EVP INL Report.pdf

At that rate if there are now 5000 EV's in Southern California and if drivers took no action at all to curtail their peak charging during power emergencies, then they would create a load of about 800 KW, or 0.03% of the capacity of San Onofre.

For perspective, that's the same load as if the entire population of Octillo (400) all decided to dry their hair (1875W) at the same time.

Or if the entire population of Chula Vista (270k) all decided to brush their teeth (3W) at the same time.

Or if the employees of Point Loma Seafoods (50) all turned on their central air conditioning(15 KW) at the same time.

Or if 50 people out of 23 million Southern California residents all turned on their central air conditioning at the same time.

You needn't take it that far . . . a good amount of us Leaf'rs run PV solar ... and even run a surplus ... even while charging mid day. We'd do more harm to the local grid by simply turning of our inverters than we ever could with our paltry 3kw charger draw.

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