Japan is expected to spend, roughly, $ 0.19 trillion ($ 0.19 cho; or, ¥ 20.13 cho), for energy (oil, coal, and natural gas) imports, next year. China, on the other hand, is expected to spend, roughly, $ 0.22 trillion ($ 0.22 cho; or, ¥ 23.71 cho), for energy (oil, coal, and natural gas) imports, next year. At first glance, the two countries appear to be spending about the same for the production of goods and services; that, they are competitive, economically speaking.
China, however, if it stopped importing all energy, today, would still be able to maintain 91% of it’s current production level. This is because most of China’s production is based on coal, which constitutes 69% of China’s overall energy consumption, and is self produced, by far (97%). It is also because much of China’s production is based on oil, which constitutes 18% of China’s overall energy consumption, and is also self produced (41%). That 41% figure is misleading, though. China could choose to increase it’s internal production of oil, if it wanted to. If China ramped up it’s production of oil, internally, it would still be able to maintain 99% of it’s current production level. It might take China a year to do that but, that year would go by quickly.
On the other hand, if Japan stopping importing all energy, today, it’s production of goods and services would come to a screeching halt (1%). This is because almost all of the energy that Japan consumes must be imported.
Japan faces the same dilemma, when it comes to the extraction and transportation of raw materials it needs for the production of goods.
With these facts in mind, it is hard to imagine how Japan will be able to compete, economically, with China. For hypothetical example, were China to enter the auto making industry, in a big way, and dramatically undercut Japan’s automobile prices, and Japan attempt to come close to those prices, China would profit, tremendously, whereas Japan would take a big loss. In that event, Japan would have to get out of the auto making business, all together. All of the other heavy industries, in Japan, would fall the same way; like dominos.
Fuel cells couldn’t possibly save Japan from this fate. Some (the energy brokers) offer compact fusion as the solution to Japan’s dilemma. They insist that, since Japan can’t do anything about it, and practical compact fusion may be here in 10 years, that Japan should keep buying their other energy products (oil, natural gas, and coal), in the interim.
I beg to disagree. Ten years may be too late, even if compact fusion were practical by then. A compact fusion reactor is still a steam engine and still just as expensive to build and maintain as a fission reactor, if not more. Though, not much radioactive waste, comparatively, is produced; cumulatively, it would still be a lot to dispose of. Japan does not have enough land available for such disposal. The worst problem, by far, with compact fusion reactors are their compactness. You’d have to, literally, maintain large armies/air forces around them to keep people from simply walking away with them. Even that won’t secure them. Talk about attractive nuisance! Every thief in the world will be trying to figure out how to steal one.
Most profound is that compact fusion couldn’t possibly solve Japan’s dilemma. It would only perpetuate it. Compact fusion reactor fuel is just another expensive energy source that China will be able to produce, for itself, and that Japan will have to buy from elsewhere. In addition, energy produced from compact fusion reactors couldn’t possibly reduce the cost of extracting raw materials and the cost of transporting those raw materials below that or even close to that which China would spend for the same. Most of China’s extraction and transport of raw materials is by means of coal (69%) energy, which they employ locally.
What may be just fine and dandy for an American auto maker could very well be the death knell for a Japanese auto maker!
China, however, if it stopped importing all energy, today, would still be able to maintain 91% of it’s current production level. This is because most of China’s production is based on coal, which constitutes 69% of China’s overall energy consumption, and is self produced, by far (97%). It is also because much of China’s production is based on oil, which constitutes 18% of China’s overall energy consumption, and is also self produced (41%). That 41% figure is misleading, though. China could choose to increase it’s internal production of oil, if it wanted to. If China ramped up it’s production of oil, internally, it would still be able to maintain 99% of it’s current production level. It might take China a year to do that but, that year would go by quickly.
On the other hand, if Japan stopping importing all energy, today, it’s production of goods and services would come to a screeching halt (1%). This is because almost all of the energy that Japan consumes must be imported.
Japan faces the same dilemma, when it comes to the extraction and transportation of raw materials it needs for the production of goods.
With these facts in mind, it is hard to imagine how Japan will be able to compete, economically, with China. For hypothetical example, were China to enter the auto making industry, in a big way, and dramatically undercut Japan’s automobile prices, and Japan attempt to come close to those prices, China would profit, tremendously, whereas Japan would take a big loss. In that event, Japan would have to get out of the auto making business, all together. All of the other heavy industries, in Japan, would fall the same way; like dominos.
Fuel cells couldn’t possibly save Japan from this fate. Some (the energy brokers) offer compact fusion as the solution to Japan’s dilemma. They insist that, since Japan can’t do anything about it, and practical compact fusion may be here in 10 years, that Japan should keep buying their other energy products (oil, natural gas, and coal), in the interim.
I beg to disagree. Ten years may be too late, even if compact fusion were practical by then. A compact fusion reactor is still a steam engine and still just as expensive to build and maintain as a fission reactor, if not more. Though, not much radioactive waste, comparatively, is produced; cumulatively, it would still be a lot to dispose of. Japan does not have enough land available for such disposal. The worst problem, by far, with compact fusion reactors are their compactness. You’d have to, literally, maintain large armies/air forces around them to keep people from simply walking away with them. Even that won’t secure them. Talk about attractive nuisance! Every thief in the world will be trying to figure out how to steal one.
Most profound is that compact fusion couldn’t possibly solve Japan’s dilemma. It would only perpetuate it. Compact fusion reactor fuel is just another expensive energy source that China will be able to produce, for itself, and that Japan will have to buy from elsewhere. In addition, energy produced from compact fusion reactors couldn’t possibly reduce the cost of extracting raw materials and the cost of transporting those raw materials below that or even close to that which China would spend for the same. Most of China’s extraction and transport of raw materials is by means of coal (69%) energy, which they employ locally.
What may be just fine and dandy for an American auto maker could very well be the death knell for a Japanese auto maker!