Toyota will do anything to avoid building an EV

[TomT]

By which point everyone else will have moved on to something else that is better, and Toyota will still be behind the power curve... I used to really like Toyota but I have little respect for them these days...

I would speculate Toyota will slowly extend the EV range of their hybrid vehicles over the next 20 years as batteries improve on price and performance.

 

[GRA]

Once you get used to plugging in at home, it is hard to consider buying any vehicle that will require trips to a fuel station. The only practical fuel cell should be one that is a range-extender to a vehicle that is primarily a battery car for daily commutes.

Which exactly describes Toyota's FCHV-ADV, a modified Highlander - there's one in my neighborhood. Of course, for lowest cost (and for people who can't charge at home or work) a pure fuel-cell vehicle makes more sense.

This time around I'm not ready to write fuel-cells off. Prices have come down to reasonably affordable levels, power density is up, and we're starting to get enough excess renewables that we'd otherwise have to shut down to avoid having grid stability problems. That power can be used either for charging BEVs (or storage of some kind) or else to generate H2 via electrolysis, and while BEVs are more efficient, H2 has the advantage of providing 300+ mile range with gasoline refueling times now. And if we get either metal hydride adsorption or else nanotube storage to work at an affordable price, that brings the cost way down (as you don't need to compress the H2 to 5 or 10,000 PSI to get a reasonable range). The individual infrastructure is more expensive, but then you need a lot less of it because of the range.

ISTM that for those who can afford it the FCHV is the best of both worlds, essentially a Volt with the ICE replaced by a fuel cell. At least in California we're going to have a basic infrastructure, so we can see how FCEVs/FCHVs and BEVs/PHEVs go head-to-head. Toyota is claiming their 2015 FCEV will cost about $50k, and with at least 300 miles of range and 5 minute refueling it definitely fits more into what people coming from ICEVs are used to. And it's still an EV. Provided that we require the H2 to be generated using renewables, I've got no problem with the tech.

 

[ydnas7]

This time around I'm not ready to write fuel-cells off. Prices have come down to reasonably affordable levels, power density is up

That may be the fuel cell hope, but I'm still willing to write fuel cells off.

The Caddy Volt is probably better than its fuel cell equivalent on every metric, except the voltec 4 seat design.
Yet it will struggle to match 10% the sales volume of the Tesla.
Make the Caddy Volt tied to only a dozen stations in the country and it would be RIP.

Toyota's conviction on H2 is high, perhaps extreme, but until H2 can compete with electricity in street/garage lighting or consumer electronics, it won't be able to compete with battery vehicles for recharging or useability.

 

[ydnas7]

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=12208#p280988" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When I generated that chart, I used a Wild Ass Guess for the projection post incentive cease.
so then I modelled an alternate reality with a plug happy Toyota, and nil government incentives.
Ie Toyota introduced the PiP circa 2006 (i.e. circa. home brew kits became available to plug in the prius)
and both models matched at 2017 and onwards. so the model became a SWAG
ie if Toyota had introduced the PIP in 2006, there would be no need for government rebates today :shock:

conclusions
Toyota's fixation on H2 led them to abdicate leadership in
PHEV-40 and BEV as well as significantly reducing the volume of PHEV-6 that they sell
it also gave the opening for the SAE frankenplugs, Chademo with 3 of the worlds top 5 automakers (Toyota/Nissan/Hyundai) should've/could've kept that door locked.
It also would've had an effect on the oil/gas price, which would've reduced a significant burden on the Japanese economy (particulary in post Fukushima Japan)

So Toyota has squandered a fantastic opportunity for Japan and itself due to their fixation on H2. This type of momentum does not adjust easily, I don't expect to see a Prius BEV until after Tesla has buried the H2. And that won't happen until after the H2 is on the market for 1/2 a generation (ie 2 years)

Having wrote that, Toyota has scale in many parts to make a BEV today (motors, controllers, chassis, etc.)

 

[Berlino]

I was looking for one of the rare Chargepoint locations in my province when I stumbled across a Hydrogen refueling station.

Is there any other State or Province that has a Hydrogen station, yet no CHAdeMO or Super-Charger? (One Tesla SC is slated to open next year.)



It turns out that the University of Quebec at Trois-Rivieres has a hydrogen power research lab. From brief googling, Toyota is funding at least two of their projects, but the planned MY15 Toyota hydrogen vehicles don't use any of the university's work. No one could tell me what vehicles,if any, actually use the station.

From the picture I posted on plugshare, it looks like you can fit about 20 of the Chargepoint L2's into the Hydrogen post.

http://www.plugshare.com/api/_uploads/locations/UQTR.jpg

 

[EdmondLeaf]

I was looking for one of the rare Chargepoint locations in my province when I stumbled across a Hydrogen refueling station.

Is there any other State or Province that has a Hydrogen station, yet no CHAdeMO or Super-Charger? (One Tesla SC is slated to open next year.)



It turns out that the University of Quebec at Trois-Rivieres has a hydrogen power research lab. From brief googling, Toyota is funding at least two of their projects, but the planned MY15 Toyota hydrogen vehicles don't use any of the university's work. No one could tell me what vehicles,if any, actually use the station.

From the picture I posted on plugshare, it looks like you can fit about 20 of the Chargepoint L2's into the Hydrogen post.

http://www.plugshare.com/api/_uploads/locations/UQTR.jpg

Any idea what is the H2 price?

 

[GRA]

This time around I'm not ready to write fuel-cells off. Prices have come down to reasonably affordable levels, power density is up

That may be the fuel cell hope, but I'm still willing to write fuel cells off.

The Caddy Volt is probably better than its fuel cell equivalent on every metric, except the voltec 4 seat design.
Yet it will struggle to match 10% the sales volume of the Tesla.
Make the Caddy Volt tied to only a dozen stations in the country and it would be RIP.

Toyota's conviction on H2 is high, perhaps extreme, but until H2 can compete with electricity in street/garage lighting or consumer electronics, it won't be able to compete with battery vehicles for recharging or useability.

It's not just Toyota going all in on fuel cells, but GM, Hyundai (Tucson), Daimler, plus Honda, Ford, and even Nissan-Renault. But I think the first group are the ones who have announced they'll have FCEVs on the market in 2015. Personally, I agree with Toyota that BEVs aren't ready for the mass market yet, although unlike them I'm not sure that we need two more generations of batteries to get there.

But if we have to wait until 2018 for the Tesla Gen III, when a FCEV with at least 50% more range (and 50% higher price, but still more than $20k less than the cheapest Model S) is available in 2014 or 2015, I think there's definitely competition. And unlike the BEV, the FCEV won't suffer the triple-whammy (dense air/decreased battery capacity/heater-defroster use) range reduction in cold weather that BEVs do, only a single whammy, as one of the two by-products of the fuel cell's reaction is heat. I think a more consistent range throughout the year is needed for mass market acceptance. Most people don't want to have to calculate their max. range on a day-to-day basis depending on temp, air density, HVAC use etc., they just want to drive the car.

Edit: http://www.autoweek.com/article/20131011/CARREVIEWS/131019973" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now that the amount of platinum needed for the catalyst in PEM fuel cells has been much reduced (or eliminated altogether in some lab developments), I expect the main restriction (other than lack of infrastructure) on fuel-cell vehicle adoption will be the price of electrolysis-produced H2. That too has come way down with further advances being announced all the time, but it's just like the announcements of major battery improvements. Who knows when or if any of these improvements will reach the market?

In any case, although the Governator's proposed hydrogen highway was obviously premature, California is clearly going to lead the way in giving the current generation of reasonably affordable FCEVs a large-scale real-world test, and I look forward to the results. Even if it proves they can't (currently) compete with BEVs the competition will undoubtedly improve both types, as they share so much of their technology.

 

[Berlino]

Any idea what is the H2 price?

No price was posted.

 

[ydnas7]

[
It's not just Toyota going all in on fuel cells, but GM, Hyundai (Tucson), Daimler, plus Honda, Ford, and even Nissan-Renault.

Toyota is going all in fuel cells as is Hyundai, but Kia definately seems to have a preference for EVs.
Daimler is also high conviction for Hydrogen but is equally high conviction for electric, and invests significantly in both.
VW and BMW effectivley are walking away from hydrogen. (focus on Diesel or BEV(x) instead)
Honda's Hydrogen program is on life support, the official Honda line is that they are not reducing engineers on the Hydrogen program.
Ford, Daimler and Nissan are sharing development, Nissan might even make a profit.
Nissan is not anti Hydrogen, they don't put up with sectarian electric/hydrogen issues, its all one giant parts bin to them, and they are happy to sell to anyone.
GM, they also have moved on from Hydrogen, the PHEV 40 and later PHEV 60 kills the Hydrogen rational. GM and Honda will now be sharing costs.
Renault, yeah they have heard of Hydrogen, wasn't that in the Hindenberg. Renault's view is similar to VW, both Diesel centric, except Renault is also into EVs.

Hyrdogen vehicles are signifiantly inferior to the the Teslas, so they are capped in what they can sell/lease them for, despite whatever the Hydrogen vehcile costs.


Take an 18650 cell, scale it up to a carbon fibre hydrogen fuel tank, compare the miles it holds, volumetrically, today's commodity lithium ion cell holds more miles than a 350psi tank and about the same miles as 700 psi hydrogen tank. Now for the scary bit, they both hold comparable energy per unit carbon fibre/particle, but fuels cells require Platnium coated ceramic components etc, batteries require some Manganese or Nickel.

 

[smkettner]

Any idea what is the H2 price?

No price was posted.

Last I read was $5 per Kg and is about equal to a gallon of gasoline.
http://www.caranddriver.com/feature...drogen-filling-stations-are-still-rare-page-3

Not very exciting to me.

And how long does a fuel cell last before rebuild? Cost?
And how long before a new H2 tank is needed or recertified? Cost?

I think the manufacturer will take the "Nissan" on publishing these costs.

 

[Smidge204]

There are techniques to split the hydrogen from gasoline or other hydrocarbons...so the fuel cell car of the future will run on....gasoline!

Hard to get gasoline pure enough to not leave some nasty residues. Methane is a good candidate, alcohol is another possibility.

Hydrogen compression does not strike me as significantly more complicated than methane compression for CNG vehicles. The gas is different of course - you might need different materials (steel would be bad...) but overall the process is identical. The big nut is where the hydrogen comes from to begin with, and whether creating and compressing that hydrogen is the optimal use of the energy available.
=Smidge=

 

[GRA]

[
It's not just Toyota going all in on fuel cells, but GM, Hyundai (Tucson), Daimler, plus Honda, Ford, and even Nissan-Renault.

Toyota is going all in fuel cells as is Hyundai, but Kia definately seems to have a preference for EVs.
Daimler is also high conviction for Hydrogen but is equally high conviction for electric, and invests significantly in both.
VW and BMW effectivley are walking away from hydrogen. (focus on Diesel or BEV(x) instead)
Honda's Hydrogen program is on life support, the official Honda line is that they are not reducing engineers on the Hydrogen program.
Ford, Daimler and Nissan are sharing development, Nissan might even make a profit.
Nissan is not anti Hydrogen, they don't put up with sectarian electric/hydrogen issues, its all one giant parts bin to them, and they are happy to sell to anyone.
GM, they also have moved on from Hydrogen, the PHEV 40 and later PHEV 60 kills the Hydrogen rational. GM and Honda will now be sharing costs.

I don't see that the PHEV40 kills the H2 rationale at all; to me, it makes it even better, with the ICE replaced by fuel cells for longer range trips.

Renault, yeah they have heard of Hydrogen, wasn't that in the Hindenberg. Renault's view is similar to VW, both Diesel centric, except Renault is also into EVs.

Hyrdogen vehicles are signifiantly inferior to the the Teslas, so they are capped in what they can sell/lease them for, despite whatever the Hydrogen vehcile costs.

I have to disagree with the bolded statement. If battery packs could be fully recharged in five minutes without damage, weren't significantly affected by temperature, and had at least triple the density they have now at the same or less price, I might agree with you. Of course, if FCEV/FCHVs start blowing up or burning in disproportionate numbers, that's a different matter.

A large battery BEV like the Tesla, and an FCEV or FCHV like what Toyota is proposing for next year, each have significant strengths and weaknesses. For someone like me who uses a car almost entirely for out of town trips almost wholly on freeways and highways, often in cold weather and involving a lot of climbing, and who lives in rental property with no way to charge at home, the FCEV/FCHV has major operational advantages of greater and more consistent range, rapid refueling, and (probably) a weight advantage. For a homeowner who uses the car mostly for urban use a BEV (with Tesla range) is better, because its recharge time isn't relevant, and there's no need to charge away from home.

Take an 18650 cell, scale it up to a carbon fibre hydrogen fuel tank, compare the miles it holds, volumetrically, today's commodity lithium ion cell holds more miles than a 350psi tank and about the same miles as 700 psi hydrogen tank. Now for the scary bit, they both hold comparable energy per unit carbon fibre/particle, but fuels cells require Platnium coated ceramic components etc, batteries require some Manganese or Nickel.

As I mentioned, the amount of platinum required for catalysts has been dropping fast, and I'm not sure what relevance 350 or 700 PSI H2 tanks have, when current fuel cell cars all use 5,000-10,000 PSI tanks. Adsorption or nano tube storage, assuming it can be commercialized, will shrink the H2 volume requirements even further, and will do so at low pressure which will allow a move away from cylindrical tanks. Batteries and fuel cells will both continue to develop, and we may well see the advantage swap back and forth several times until these technologies are mature, and we know which is the best for any particular purpose. But until we reach that point, it would be foolish, IMO, to limit development to one or the other. They're both EVs, which is my major concern.

 

[ydnas7]

I'm not sure what relevance 350 or 700 PSI H2 tanks have, when current fuel cell cars all use 5,000-10,000 PSI tanks.

my error, I think in metric, 350 bar / 700 bar or 35 MPa or 70 MPa

lets do some quick maths, an 18650 cell similar to Tesla's http://industrial.panasonic.com/www-data/pdf2/ACI4000/ACI4000CE54.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; holds 676Wh/litre

so a 67kWh 'tank/cell' is about 100 litres.... in 18650 terms
so a 171 litres 'tank/cell' is about 115kWh
The Honda clarity H2 tank of 171 internal litres http://www.hondaclarity.org" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; add ~20% for the carbon fibre

point is H2 tanks for honda hold less miles per unit volume compared to commodity batteries.

even at double pressure ie 700 bar , a 171litre tanks gains a further 40% carbon fibre shell, ie 240 litres
which is about 160kWh of battery cells.

what I'm describing is that a hypothetical big 18650 cell is more compact than a 350 bar H2 tank, and very comparable to a 700 bar tank in terms of miles stored.

which may not make much relevance but

18650 cell's anode is a wound structure of aluminium electrode and carbon anode and an electrolyte.
H2 tank is a wound structure of an aluminium shell with carbon fibre outside and an resin matrix.
ie similar trends

so the point of difference becomes the Li ion cell cathode vs the fuel cell's stack.
so H2 fuel cells need to become competitive with 10 hour duty consumer electronics li ion before they can become competitive with 2 hour duty auto motive use of consumer electroinics li ion.