USA #1 Oil Exporter per IEA --- opinions

[ksnogas2112]

So in today's Money section on CNN.com I found the following article:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news/economy/us-oil-production-energy/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It seems that big oil has influenced the International Energy Agency to the point where they will post ridiculous "studies".

I don't see how the US can go from the #1 imported to the #1 exporter in 8 years when our oil use is scaling up at a rapid pace. Quite frankly the article is, well, bull in my opinion.

Questions, comments, stories, or opinions welcomed.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

So in today's Money section on CNN.com I found the following article:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news/economy/us-oil-production-energy/index.html?iid=HP_LN&hpt=hp_t1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It seems that big oil has influenced the International Energy Agency to the point where they will post ridiculous "studies".

I don't see how the US can go from the #1 imported to the #1 exporter in 8 years when our oil use is scaling up at a rapid pace. Quite frankly the article is, well, bull in my opinion.

Questions, comments, stories, or opinions welcomed.

By 2020 we'll all be zipping around in electric cars and high speed rail, all powered by wind and solar. The only use for oil here will be for the occasional squeaky door hinge, so any domestic production will have to be sold abroad.

 

[LEAFer]

I get it ! Another conspiracy afoot !

Big Oil is suddenly realizing ( thanks to Nissan's commitment to high-volume EVs ) that it's critical to curb the success of EVs. So what they have under their control (other than lowering the price of gasoline) is ... taking away one of our well-used arguments: "Independence from foreign oil". :roll:

 

[ksnogas2112]

By 2020 we'll all be zipping around in electric cars and high speed rail, all powered by wind and solar. The only use for oil here will be for the occasional squeaky door hinge, so any domestic production will have to be sold abroad.

If only

 

[Stoaty]

Here is the answer. As you can see, the U.S. has modestly increased crude oil production from the 2007 low of 5 million Barrels Per Day to 5.7 million BPD in 2011. Since we currently use about 18 million BPD, it's a bit hard to see how this could happen. However, the writers apparently don't have to be concerned with reality, so they mix in natural gas, and just generally make stuff up to make it look good.

 

[ksnogas2112]

Thanks Stoaty! My gut knew something was up but I didn't have the numbers to show it.

 

[smkettner]

USA #1 Oil Exporter per IEA --- opinions

I think it is largest producer not largest exporter. We will consume it all and more IMO.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

USA #1 Oil Exporter per IEA --- opinions

I think it is largest producer not largest exporter. We will consume it all and more IMO.

Ah, so maybe it means by 2020 the rest of the world will all be zipping around in electric cars and high speed rail, all powered by wind and solar.

 

[thankyouOB]

The data includes natural gas and the fracking "revolution."
it aint just crude.

Oil and GAS.
we got gas up the wazoo and we are fracking it out of every rock formation that is friable.

 

[kubel]

A country that peaked in the 1970's is suddenly going to be the worlds biggest oil exporter. Hmmm...

 

[thankyouOB]

"There are several components of the sudden shift in the world’s energy supply, but the prime mover is a resurgence of oil and gas production in the United States, particularly the unlocking of new reserves of oil and gas found in shale rock. The widespread adoption of techniques such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has made those reserves much more accessible, and in the case of natural gas, resulted in a vast glut that has sent prices plunging."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/13/business/energy-environment/report-sees-us-as-top-oil-producer-in-5-years.html?hpw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Stoaty]

The data includes natural gas and the fracking "revolution."
it aint just crude.

My point exactly. We produce 5.7 million BPD of crude oil and use 18 million BPD. Now how is that going to change enough in 8 years that we are "energy independent"? Most of the cars will still run on gasoline from crude oil.

 

[tmac]

Al Bartlett at UC boulder has great 1990 you tube video.
"The most important video you'll ever see".
Take the time to watch it if you have not done so.


In it he cites numerous examples of media, politicians saying the stupidest things about 500 years of coal. They NEVER check the math.

He urges the discerning reader to do the long division arithmetic of the proven reserves divide by rate of consumption. Also include the rate of growth of the economy.

The natural log of 2 is 70 so you divide the growth of coal oil or 'nat gas' Consumption into 70

Thus if economy and oil consumption grows by 7% the doubling time is 10 years
Thus every 10 years we need to double the production. If it grows at 10% annually in 7 short years we need to find double the oil.

I am glad OP was skeptical


Peace
Tom