Why the Electric Car Is Doomed to Fail?

[Yodrak]

Actually, lpickup has got it right and ENIAC has got it wrong. Most refineries do generate a lot of their own electricity. What electricity they buy from the grid is only a portion of electricity they use to run the refinery.

Actually the "EV crowd" has it right, you have it wrong. The amount of electricity purchased by refiners is tracked. In 2010 refineries in the U.S. purchased 46.227 GWh of electricity. That electricity came from the grid. To state "their electricity is mostly generated on-site" is patently wrong.

Plus this is where the "EV crowd" gets this argument wrong--and we need to be careful how we present this argument. Yes, the refining process uses a lot of electricity. It's not known exactly how much (unless you are an oil company) but it's probably safe to assume that the amount required will ALMOST (but not quite) power an EV the same distance as a high mileage car would go.

However where the argument goes wrong is that their electricity is mostly generated on-site using the refined fuel or other by-products. So they are not actually pulling a lot of power from the grid. Therefore to make the argument that the grid can handle it, or that the refining process is using the "dirty" coal-fired power is incorrect. Basically the net effect is that the efficiency of the refinery as a whole is lower by the amount of product that must be used to generate power for the refinery.

All in all the argument is still valid from an efficiency point of view: power generated for electricity and then distributed to your outlets makes more efficient use of the raw materials going into the process than does gasoline refining. But to be fair we have to present the argument properly.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

How fast can coal plants throttle? People have this image of lumps of coal burning in a pile like an old time locomotive but my understanding it is crushed into a fine powder and burns in a big fireball in mid air in a furnace. Seems you could quickly change the amount being sprayed in.

 

[Nubo]

We couldn't justify the expense needed to get the EVSE on the TOU plan. I thought to do it anyway but the final nail in the coffin was that it is still "experimental". There is simply no way that any significant percentage of EV owners in this area are going to go to the trouble.

Somehow you lost me. I don't think the point is that people will have to switch to TOU to charge at night, rather that it's just a natural consequence of the fact that most people are using their car during the day (or it's parked at work where charging is not available) and most vehicle charging takes place off-peak (or maybe more accurately, NOT during the peak usage of the day), whether or not the owners are on TOU plans.

I disagree -- the natural approach, all else being equal, would be for the driver to plug in and start the recharge immediately when getting home. This would typically be in the late afternoon/early evening -- precisely at peak load time during the summer months in hot climates!

Absent any incentive to do otherwise, most drivers would naturally gravitate to getting more charge into the battery as soon as possible, imho.

 

[Reddy]

So many well-informed people on this forum, that's why I continue to read it. Here are some references to support the 90% capacity factor for nuclear:

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/N...US_nuclear_power_industry_in_2007_070208.html
"The NEI said preliminary figures showed that the average capacity factor of the USA's nuclear power reactors in 2007 was 91.8%, up from the previous record of 90.1%, which was set in 2004. The capacity factor is the ratio of electricity actually produced compared with the theoretical maximum electricity a reactor can produce operating at full power throughout the year."

That's the positive nuclear news and here's the less positive news:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Japanese_nuclear_generation_dwindles-2811115.html
"As of 28 November, just ten of Japan's 54 power reactors were in operation, according to data released by the Japan Atomic Industry Forum. This represents 9038 MWe, or 18%, of the country's total nuclear generating capacity of 48,960 MWe. Twenty seven units, with a combined generating capacity of 23,930 MWe are not operating as they have been shut for periodic inspection and have not been allowed to restart. A further 17 units, representing 15,990 MWe of capacity have been shut down due to the tsunami or at the government’s request."

And ironically, from April 2010:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Improvement_in_Japanese_reactor_performance-1304104.html
"According to figures released by the Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF), the weighted average capacity factor of the country's fleet of 54 power reactors, with a combined capacity of 48,847 MWe, was 65.7% during the year to the end of March 2010. This compares with an average capacity factor of 60% in the previous year."

I thought I posted an article several months back, but I can't find the post. I'll see if I can find it later. I read a scientific article on the grid and charging EV. Essentially, the existing current grid (without any modifications) and power plants (yes, you would probably need to supply more fuel) could supply enough electricity to power about 70% of the current passenger and light trucks vehicles. The interesting thing about the article was that it works the best when about 10-15% of the charging is during the day (with the grid moderating the power to the EVs as needed to maintain stability).

Reddy.

 

[Yodrak]

Good question. And there are some coal-fired generating units that burn chunk coal. But you are correct, most burn coal that's been ground to the fineness of talcum powder.

Thing is, a steam power plant is a complex assortment of integrated equipment that all needs to be coordinated in operation, so it's not as simple as just 'taking one's foot off the accelerator'. Also, ramping power plant equipment up and down creates wear and tear that means decreased reliability and increased maintenance. So, except in emergency situations, it's not a question of how fast can the plant ramp up or down, but how fast can the plant be ramped without risking immediate plant failure and without out causing component damage that will cause problems over the long term.

Ramp rates for any generating unit will be highly unit-specific, but here's a paper that describes how a modern, fairly typical, coal-fired steam generating unit was evaluated to improve its ramp rate (and reduce its minimum load capability).
http://www.exoeng.com/Papers/paper7.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The original ramp rate was ~0.5% of rated unit output per minute
The new ramp rate for dispatch purposes is ~2.2% of rated output per minute, although it could do 3.7%
For small load changes it could ramp as fast as 11% of rated output per minute.

The aspects of plant equipment and plant operation that needed to be evaluated and upgraded may be beyond the understanding of people who are not knowlegable about steam power plants, but should make it clear just how complex a power plant is.

How fast can coal plants throttle? People have this image of lumps of coal burning in a pile like an old time locomotive but my understanding it is crushed into a fine powder and burns in a big fireball in mid air in a furnace. Seems you could quickly change the amount being sprayed in.

 

[lpickup]

I disagree -- the natural approach, all else being equal, would be for the driver to plug in and start the recharge immediately when getting home. This would typically be in the late afternoon/early evening -- precisely at peak load time during the summer months in hot climates!

Agree with you there on plugging in as soon as they got home, although I do think a fair percentage would be conscientious enough to use their timers if only to charge to 80% and they have to choose SOME kind of start time or end time if they do that. Plus if it became popular knowledge that letting the car sit at 100% was bad for the battery that many would also use timers to mitigate that. I just looked at the 4Q ecoTality report and sure enough the charts bear out that premise: there is a dramatic uptick in charging at midnight each day.

But even assuming none of that, I still stand by my statement because while peak heat of the day might be at around 4pm (or even 2-6) I still think that by the time the commuting populace does get home and plug in it's just as the peak is starting to diminish.

Furthermore I would point out that even if this is a problem, there are relatively low-tech devices to allow peak management in operation today. I have one on my AC unit to allow the utility to shut it off for 15 minutes at a time to help them manage their peak. I get a (very) nominal credit on my bill for allowing them to do this. If things get really bad (which I don't think they will) I imagine that similar devices and incentives will be offered for EVSEs.

 

[smkettner]

- Solar capacity factor has to be limited to something less than ~50%, even in the most ideal conditions, because 50% of the time it's dark.

Solar would seem to be almost perfect for a load following generator. I look forward to the day when power is abundent and cheap during the day and the overnight power supplied by coal and nukes is the expensive stuff.

 

[Yodrak]

Here's an interesting study done for the State of Vermont, which shows that starting charging once per day when arriving home after work, or charging twice per day when arriving at work and then again when arriving home after work, can have negative consequences. The uncontrolled charging accentuates the morning and evening peaks.

But there is great benefit to allowing the utility to control the charging based on the actual load it is experiencing, which allows the utility to prevent the enlarged peaks and more effectively fill in the overnight load 'valley'.

I disagree -- the natural approach, all else being equal, would be for the driver to plug in and start the recharge immediately when getting home. This would typically be in the late afternoon/early evening -- precisely at peak load time during the summer months in hot climates!

 

[Yodrak]

- Solar capacity factor has to be limited to something less than ~50%, even in the most ideal conditions, because 50% of the time it's dark.

Solar would seem to be almost perfect for a load following generator. I look forward to the day when power is abundent and cheap during the day and the overnight power supplied by coal and nukes is the expensive stuff.

Almost, but there's still the problem that solar output is not constant even on ideal days. In summer solar output will be dropping off throughout the afternoon and into the evening when the load is still up or even increasing.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Good question. And there are some coal-fired generating units that burn chunk coal. But you are correct, most burn coal that's been ground to the fineness of talcum powder.
...

Thank you for the link and explanation. Even only following a portion of it gives you some insight into how complex these systems are.

Re the solar, that's a problem. 6pm is when the sun is setting, right when I plug in my EV and crank up the blender. Maybe I can make some kind of pumped storage system with a water tower next to the pool.

 

[thankyouOB]

I dont agree with the assessment that folks will charge when they get home regardless of when off-peak rates are, or that the peak-demand on the system is when folks arrive home from work.

I plug in at 6-7 p.m. when I get home, but I set the Leaf to charge at 8 p.m. when the low rate starts.
The difference is 2 cents from the peak rate 8 months a year, and 12 cents during the four high-demand summer months in LA.

As to the high-demand, during the summer, peak rates are at 1-5 p.m. in the city of Los Angeles, not after 5 p.m. when most commuters get home.

 

[Nubo]

I dont agree with the assessment that folks will charge when they get home regardless of when off-peak rates are, or that the peak-demand on the system is when folks arrive home from work.

I plug in at 6-7 p.m. when I get home, but I set the Leaf to charge at 8 p.m. when the low rate starts.
The difference is 2 cents from the peak rate 8 months a year, and 12 cents during the four high-demand summer months in LA.

As to the high-demand, during the summer, peak rates are at 1-5 p.m. in the city of Los Angeles, not after 5 p.m. when most commuters get home.

No, I didn't say regardless of rates. Rather the problem is with utilities that make it impractical or impossible to utilize them. The PG&E rate structure makes TOU charging untenable for all but a very few customers. You either have to put the entire house on TOU and face astronomical peak-hour charges, or pay through the nose to get a second meter installed for the experimental EVSE rate. Last I saw, they had about 38 (count 'em, 38) customers on the EV TOU plan.

 

[lpickup]

I plug in at 6-7 p.m. when I get home, but I set the Leaf to charge at 8 p.m. when the low rate starts.

Nubo already responded, but the question is: if you paid the same rate after 8pm as you did before, would you still defer charging? Actually the real question is would Joe Public do that?

 

[Yodrak]

Electric rates and load pattens are highly location-specific. Los Angeles is not representative of the USA as a whole, nor is my locale where I am not on a time-of-day rate and where the peak demand is when folks arrive home from work.

I do expect that the average person will plug in when they arrive home. Whether or not they will use the timer function to delay the start of charging, as you do, I am not sure. I suspect that the average person will consider that to be a complexity that they don't want to deal with (although if they could convince their grade-school kid that it was a game the kid would have no problem doing it for them). On the other hand, I also expect that most people who would currently buy an electric car will not find the timer function to be particularly complex. But, they still may not be bothered to use it.

I dont agree with the assessment that folks will charge when they get home regardless of when off-peak rates are, or that the peak-demand on the system is when folks arrive home from work.

 

[thankyouOB]

I agree that PG&E sucks -- in fact, so do most investor-owned utilities, unless you are a shareholder (I love that 5% coupon on Con ED)-- and LADWP is doing all it can to boost EVs with TOU rates AND a 2.5-cent a kWh discount BONUS for EV drivers off all electricity used during base rates.

It is time for the PUC to look at this and make the investor-owned utilities change the way the do business.

 

[Roadburner440]

When our Leaf gets here I will charge that off peak due to its larger pack, and have it finish about the time I leave for work with the climate timer between 70-80%.. However with the Volt the pack is not large enough, so I think pulling my 4.8kwh that powers my drive to work in the afternoon isn't to big of a deal.

 

[SteveInSeattle]

He has a good point that a used Leaf in 2016 will have to compete against a vastly improved 2016 Leaf (this seems very realistic)-- and resale values may be low as a result. I, therefore, plan to keep my Leaf for its entire usable life. That way, resale is not an issue, and fuel savings over an ICE is maximized. Leasing the batteries would solve the used value issue. As far as the grid, we need improvements, electric car or not-- no argument there.

 

[GRA]

My thoughts on this:
<snip all we agree on>
- Solar capacity factor has to be limited to something less than ~50%, even in the most ideal conditions, because 50% of the time it's dark.
It's a lot less than 50%. A solar module is rated under 'peak sun' conditions (1,000 W/sq.m, ISA), and the NREL has maps, tables and data showing how many hours of peak sun equivalent is available for a given location (although they've largely changed over to showing the data in kWh/sq.m). Note that the sun may be up for many more hours, but the total day's production is equivalent to 'X' hours of peak sun.

The greatest year-round average for the US is a bit over 6 hours peak sun, and occurs in parts of southeastern California through the southern tip of Nevada, much of Arizona and parts of New Mexico. Obviously, average peak sun hours are higher in summer, lower in winter. Because (AOTBE) PV solar plants put out their max. at solar noon, solar thermal plants are being designed so that heat energy can be stored in molten salts and generation can be shifted a few hours later to match peak demand.

 

[Volusiano]

He has a good point that a used Leaf in 2016 will have to compete against a vastly improved 2016 Leaf (this seems very realistic)-- and resale values may be low as a result. I, therefore, plan to keep my Leaf for its entire usable life. That way, resale is not an issue, and fuel savings over an ICE is maximized.

No, he does not have a good point because the issue of the resale value only pertains to the current battery pack and not the EV itself. By 2016, your 2011 Leaf outfitted with a newer/cheaper/longer range battery is almost "just as good as new".

As long as you're able to get the most use out of the current battery pack between now and 2016 and the savings in gas obtained with this old battery more than pays for itself, you can throw it away or trade it in for cheap in 2016 and not have to worry about its resale value issue at all.

By then, the new model for resale value will be just on the EV itself, separated from the battery pack, like what Better Place is promoting. And once separated from the battery pack, most EV resale value should hold up pretty good.

 

[Luft]

No, he does not have a good point because the issue of the resale value only pertains to the current battery pack and not the EV itself. By 2016, your 2011 Leaf outfitted with a newer/cheaper/longer range battery is almost "just as good as new".

As long as you're able to get the most use out of the current battery pack between now and 2016 and the savings in gas obtained with this old battery more than pays for itself, you can throw it away or trade it in for cheap in 2016 and not have to worry about its resale value issue at all.

By then, the new model for resale value will be just on the EV itself, separated from the battery pack, like what Better Place is promoting. And once separated from the battery pack, most EV resale value should hold up pretty good.

I am hoping to be able to upgrade my pack as well but I'm not sure how much labor would cost to drop the old pack and put a new one in. Does anyone know what it would take to swap out a 24kWh pack and put in one that would double or triple our range when they become available? How would a larger pack work with the current software? I'm thinking that it won't be as easy as just swapping out the pack but I don't know.