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TonyWilliams
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:16 pm

smkettner wrote:Better keep selling RAV4EV as that FCV will be lucky to sell 2 per month after the market is saturated with the first dozen.
I thought the look was just the concept... it looks bad when it needs to look futuristic or even just average.
JMHO
I'm confident they can find 263 buyers per each model year during 2015 - 2017. That could be one fleet sale to the state of California, or some university, or a utility, or Google, etc.

Easy Peasy
Last edited by TonyWilliams on Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:16 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:The "big six" Large Vehicle Manufacturers (LVM) auto manufacturers of the world (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler) were required to begin the modern day CARB-ZEV rules, starting in 2012.
<snip for brevity>
Tony, thanks for your persistence in posting information about how CARB rules work! It really helps me to understand some of the motivations behind the actions that these car companies take!
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GRA
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:33 pm

TomT wrote:Could they have made it any less attractive?! It's almost as if Toyota doesn't WANT anyone to buy it...
I think that's just the concept car they've been schlepping around to auto shows. I can't imagine Toyota producing anything so awkward looking in this day and age, although I can remember Toyota Crowns from the late '60s/early '70s, when they did.

That Japan price presumably includes VAT, 8% this year and 10% next, plus whatever other taxes Japan imposes.
Last edited by GRA on Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:49 pm

I actually don't think the concept car looks so bad in person. :oops:

What Tony said, re CARB-related motivations. Much smaller programs required if OEMs take the FCV route, and reports of H2 lobbying have been particularly intense in recent months...

(As an aside, the ED of the CA Fuel Cell Partnership just moved back into CARB staff: http://cafcp.org/getinvolved/stayconnec ... w_role_arb )

Like Reg, I too, expect they'll be lease-only, which will allow them to fabricate an attractive lease payment if they choose. CARB is also considering boosting the CVRP rebate for FCVs because they're so expensive, which would be magnified if applied to a lease as cap cost reduction. (I can only imagine if Tesla had made that case!)

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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:56 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:The "big six" Large Vehicle Manufacturers (LVM) auto manufacturers of the world (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM, Ford, Fiat/Chrysler) were required to begin the modern day CARB-ZEV rules, starting in 2012.
<snip for brevity>
Tony, thanks for your persistence in posting information about how CARB rules work! It really helps me to understand some of the motivations behind the actions that these car companies take!
It's one thing when the general public asks why a car like the Rav4 EV isn't sold in their state (except California) and it makes sense to them that if they just shipped them everywhere, they would "sell more" and make money. But, that's not going to happen, and the California ARB (CARB) and to a lesser degree the EPA are the reasons why.

What's frustrating is hearing those sentiments from regular (mostly informed) posters on the various forums. That's what keeps me going, because if you understand the "enemy", you know how to defeat the enemy.

Toyota has publicly stated that they don't expect hydrogen cars to be on par with electric cars until 2030. That's their best case scenario. If you think how far batteries have come in the past 15 years, it's pretty exciting to think where they'll be in 15 more.

At the low volume of ALL hydrogen cars through that period (2020-2030), I think it would take a MIRACLE (or four miracles, if you believe the former Secretary of Energy) to even be in the running with battery cars.

Wait until the subsidizes disappear from "free" hydrogen, and folks have to pay the equivalent of $6 per gallon of gas. Those "free" Superchargers that BMW, Nissan and Tesla are using are going to look REALLY good.

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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:01 pm

evchels wrote: CARB is also considering boosting the CVRP rebate for FCVs because they're so expensive, which would be magnified if applied to a lease as cap cost reduction. (I can only imagine if Tesla had made that case!)

Hydrogen gets numerous regulatory benefits that battery electrics won't share:

It has been proposed to reduce the CA Battery EV rebate to $2000 (from the current $2500) for Fiscal Year 2014-2015, which starts on July 1, 2014.

The hydrogen car state rebate will be $5,000.

The staff (CARB) is proposing to limit lifetime rebates to two for individuals, retroactive.

However, they're also proposing an exemption for anyone who wants to upgrade to an FCEV but has otherwise maxed out their rebates.

Also, as a contingency measure to keep from running out of money, they suggest giving the Executive Officer "the ability to reduce or eliminate rebates for some PHEVs based on all-electric range, if necessary, to help align expected demand with remaining budgetary constraints". No such option to limit hydrogen.

And, of course, the most CARB-ZEV credits for hydrogen cars with 9 credits each, while battery electric cars typically get 3, up to a maximum of 7.

CA ARB will consider the funding plan on June 26. More info here:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/aqip/fundplan/fundplan.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:31 pm

evchels wrote:I actually don't think the concept car looks so bad in person. :oops:
If this article

http://insideevs.com/toyota-reveals-700 ... europe-us/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

is correct, that really IS what it will look like. If accurate, I'm almost speechless. Even Subaru, in their worst days (I'm talking waaaay beyond the B9 Tribeca), never put into production anything with such oddball proportions and polarizing styling for so many people.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:48 pm

GRA wrote:
evchels wrote:I actually don't think the concept car looks so bad in person. :oops:
If this article

http://insideevs.com/toyota-reveals-700 ... europe-us/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

is correct, that really IS what it will look like. If accurate, I'm almost speechless. Even Subaru, in their worst days (I'm talking waaaay beyond the B9 Tribeca), never put into production anything with such oddball proportions and polarizing styling for so many people.
What evchels means is that in person it doesn't look that bad.

In any case, why would Toyota care - if they just want to lease a few hundred a year ?
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:21 pm

evnow wrote:
GRA wrote:
evchels wrote:I actually don't think the concept car looks so bad in person. :oops:
If this article

http://insideevs.com/toyota-reveals-700 ... europe-us/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

is correct, that really IS what it will look like. If accurate, I'm almost speechless. Even Subaru, in their worst days (I'm talking waaaay beyond the B9 Tribeca), never put into production anything with such oddball proportions and polarizing styling for so many people.
What evchels means is that in person it doesn't look that bad.
I know what she meant, and I'll have to take her word for it for the moment (just as I have to take some people's word that the i3 isn't as butt ugly in person as it appears in pictures, because I haven't seen one yet). Besides, looks are all subjective.
evnow wrote: In any case, why would Toyota care - if they just want to lease a few hundred a year ?
The market for them at that price, and with the current limited infrastructure, is going to be small in any case, so why limit it even further by using some extremely unusual, not to say bizarre, styling cues? I mean, what exactly is the point with that whole 'hood lifted off the fenders' gimmick? And the nose side intakes look like they were stolen from a F-18. Then someone apparently decided that one side crease wasn't enough, so it's got two, the second curving down the rear fender and extending across the fuel filler door, and looking at the video I realized those fenders reminded me of the Echo/1st Gen Prius, not a good thing.

The steeply dropping rear roof line looks like backseat headroom is going to be limited, and only the rear view doesn't make me gag or cry "what the hell were they thinking?!" To me it's a mish mash, a camel designed by a _drunken_ committee. YMMV.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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evchels
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Re: Official Toyota Fuel Cell Sedan thread

Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:59 pm

GRA wrote: Besides, looks are all subjective.
This is really the point, re aesthetics. Just about any car on the road will be deemed good-looking or ugly by someone. The LEAF has been pretty polarizing itself, especially early on. As was the Prius. The Juke. And oh my goodness, the Cross Cab Murano....the list is endless.

But I agree with evnow that when production is limited as much as this one is likely to be, an automaker can take more risk in this regard. They only have to find a small number of people who find it attractive (or don't care what it looks like, as is the case for some EV drivers too). And a hydrogen vehicle will only be an emotional/values-driven purchase/lease in the near term; there's not much chance that it'll be a more pragmatic choice than its alternatives. So those who choose it are likelier to want it to be very distinctive looking so that it gets noticed.

And to put an even finer point on it, I'm not convinced Toyota cares how many people like its looks or want to buy it.

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