smkettner
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:20 pm

Just can't get there from here. There is no path to $4 H2. Besides just look at what CA does to gasoline by adding tons of special formulas and regulations. You can bet H2 will have its own set of nonsense to keep the price high. Then you would need to add road tax.
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mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:17 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:46 pm
That price is well below the average price of the used Mirais he was tracking, but what I want to know is how did it wind up in Chicago?
They tend to pop up in a few isolated locations because there are filling stations there - there are two 'industrial' (but open to the public) H2 stations in the Chicago area.

As for H2 from electrolysis at $4/kg, there is theoretically a path. You need about 50kWh/kg in electric inputs, which at current solar PPA-type prices is about $1-1.50 excluding T&D costs. Add those and you're definitely below $2 in electricity inputs. At high volumes, logistics/retail margin should be fairly similar to LNG/LPG at ~$0.50/kg. The only unknown in the long term is electrolysis/purification/pressurization equipment cost. Right now that's in the low single-digit dollar range per kg. If it drops well below $1/kg in the future, $4/kg H2 is possible.

The reason I personally don't see this ever happening is the scale factor. Hydrogen for vehicle fuels is not a mainstream prospect - it's hard to conceive of any possible future where HFCEVs are cheaper than BEVs, in fact now already BEVs outperform FCEVs on basically every relevant metric and cost trends are predictably favourable towards BEVs. You need a LOT of volume to recoup the equipment cost of hydrogen production and distribution. This is a chicken and egg issue for hydrogen, and by and large you're not going to fix that by using hydrogen elsewhere. The equipment costs to recoup are in vehicle-specific parts like pressurization, high-pressure storage and dispensing stations.

A $3M dispensing station, including capital costs and maintenance, will have to serve about 10M kg of hydrogen over its 8-year lifespan to cost as much to operate as a gasoline pump (about $0.10-0.20/gal-equiv). That is 1000 vehicles per day receiving a full tank of hydrogen. There are almost no hydrogen stations right now, and the ones that exist serve maybe 10 customers per day. Even if we completely ignore capital and maintenance costs, every fill-up costs $100 in bare equipment costs. We need 100x the hydrogen stations to even start thinking about mainstream adoption and we need those costs to go down about 100-fold, so we need 10.000x the number of hydrogen vehicles to be in the order of magnitude of scale to think about $4/kg H2.

And what do we have then? (High) Gas price equivalence. Not even BEV price equivalence!

WetEV
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:37 am

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:17 am
And what do we have then? (High) Gas price equivalence. Not even BEV price equivalence!
Yet for aviation, might make sense. Unless BEVs kWh/kg improves a lot. While the fuel cost might be more than aviation gasoline, the improved range and payload increase is very valuable.
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mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:06 am

It's even less likely that aircraft will be able to use hydrogen, because the system energy density is still very poor. You can't use liquefied hydrogen and pressurized hydrogen by itself gets to usable energy densities when you go to automotive-like pressures. For that you need about 10kg of tank for every 1kg of hydrogen. And the tank cannot be a structural part of the aircraft like it is now, so effectively you're adding more weight than that.

The tank weight combined with the lower efficiency of using the hydrogen (and producing it) make it surprisingly uncompetitive with future batteries in aircraft. The effective energy density comes in at something like 1-1.5kWh/kg.

Aircraft are much better served by biofuels, synthetic fuels or other liquid fuels.

The types of niches best served by hydrogen from electrolysis are places where you need extremely few filling stations, have a predictable consumption so you can downscale logistics as much as possible and a lot of weight/volume accomodation. Trains, in short. And stationary applications. The first hydrogen trains are sort of interesting, even as a FOAK project they are already nominally cheaper than diesel.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:27 pm

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:17 am
GRA wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:46 pm
That price is well below the average price of the used Mirais he was tracking, but what I want to know is how did it wind up in Chicago?
They tend to pop up in a few isolated locations because there are filling stations there - there are two 'industrial' (but open to the public) H2 stations in the Chicago area.

As for H2 from electrolysis at $4/kg, there is theoretically a path. You need about 50kWh/kg in electric inputs, which at current solar PPA-type prices is about $1-1.50 excluding T&D costs. Add those and you're definitely below $2 in electricity inputs. At high volumes, logistics/retail margin should be fairly similar to LNG/LPG at ~$0.50/kg. The only unknown in the long term is electrolysis/purification/pressurization equipment cost. Right now that's in the low single-digit dollar range per kg. If it drops well below $1/kg in the future, $4/kg H2 is possible.

They're not talking about $4/kg. H2 necessarily via electrolysis, although that's one possible pathway. They're also exploring thermochemical or photochemical production. One of the ways to reduce H2 retail cost is to remove the cost/energy of pressurization, which IIRR is around 5kWh/kg. to 700 bar, via a switch to adsorption/nanotube storage at low pressures. The on-vehicle storage weight goes up, but it doesn't have to be cylindrical to handle high pressures, so you can use odd-shaped tanks (and use a skateboard design just like a BEV). IIRC, the problem with adsorption storage is that while it's easy to get the H2 in, it's a lot more difficult to get it back out. Nanotube storage is such leading edge stuff that no one knows what will be possible/commercial. Here's one link that reports a lot of the research: https://www.greencarcongress.com/hydrogen_production/ Naturally, most of these will never be commercialized.

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:17 am
The reason I personally don't see this ever happening is the scale factor. Hydrogen for vehicle fuels is not a mainstream prospect - it's hard to conceive of any possible future where HFCEVs are cheaper than BEVs, in fact now already BEVs outperform FCEVs on basically every relevant metric and cost trends are predictably favourable towards BEVs. You need a LOT of volume to recoup the equipment cost of hydrogen production and distribution. This is a chicken and egg issue for hydrogen, and by and large you're not going to fix that by using hydrogen elsewhere. The equipment costs to recoup are in vehicle-specific parts like pressurization, high-pressure storage and dispensing stations.

I disagree with you there. FCEVs still have greater practical range, especially in cold conditions, and more rapid refueling than any available BEV (even those costing thousands more), despite BEVs being at least 5 years ahead of them in development and FCEVs being built in relatively tiny numbers. That fueling is currently divorced from housing is an advantage in locations and countries with large numbers of people living in high-density housing (although a disadvantage for people who own a detached, single family home with a garage, but that's not how most of the world's car owners live). New H2 station costs in California have already come down considerably thanks to both economies of scale (more stations using the same equipment, with larger capacities thus lower cost per car served) and the usual design improvements, both of which still have a long way to go before this is a mature business ala' gas stations. And existing gas stations are where most of the H2 stations will go, given virtually the same business model.

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:17 am
A $3M dispensing station, including capital costs and maintenance, will have to serve about 10M kg of hydrogen over its 8-year lifespan to cost as much to operate as a gasoline pump (about $0.10-0.20/gal-equiv). That is 1000 vehicles per day receiving a full tank of hydrogen. There are almost no hydrogen stations right now, and the ones that exist serve maybe 10 customers per day.

You're behind the times. There are more than 40 stations in California despite the construction standstill most of the past year owing to the drop in fuel supply (owing to an explosion at the main Norcal production facility), and other countries are also building them in even larger numbers. As noted above costs have come down, and will undoubtedly continue to do so. Some of the first gen. California stations (180 kg. capacity) are already requiring more than one tanker delivery a day to meet demand, with a typical fill being 3-4kg. IIRR, the new stations in Cycle 2 were required to have at least 300 (360?) kg. capacity, but First Element is building them with 500kg., using liquid H2 delivery to cut down the number of delivery trips. See https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/fi ... _Final.pdf for the most recent report on California stations.

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:17 am
Even if we completely ignore capital and maintenance costs, every fill-up costs $100 in bare equipment costs. We need 100x the hydrogen stations to even start thinking about mainstream adoption and we need those costs to go down about 100-fold, so we need 10.000x the number of hydrogen vehicles to be in the order of magnitude of scale to think about $4/kg H2.

And what do we have then? (High) Gas price equivalence. Not even BEV price equivalence!

No one is claiming that H2/FCEVs are suitable for mainstream adoption yet. But then, neither are BEVs. And no one is making a profit off QC stations either, which is why both they and H2 stations are still dependent on subsidies to get built. Public L2 might or might not be profitable, but given the slow rate at which they're being built even with subsidies, the odds are against it.
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GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:35 pm

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:06 am
It's even less likely that aircraft will be able to use hydrogen, because the system energy density is still very poor. You can't use liquefied hydrogen and pressurized hydrogen by itself gets to usable energy densities when you go to automotive-like pressures. For that you need about 10kg of tank for every 1kg of hydrogen. And the tank cannot be a structural part of the aircraft like it is now, so effectively you're adding more weight than that.

While I don't see liquid H2 for retail consumer use given the safe handling requirements, I know of no reason why it couldn't be used commercially with properly trained and equipped fueling techs. That's what's being done now for water ferries and the like, and people have been handling LOX for a/c safely for decades; liquid H2 seems to be just an extension of those safety practices (protective clothing etc.). See https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content- ... hape-55559

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:06 am
The tank weight combined with the lower efficiency of using the hydrogen (and producing it) make it surprisingly uncompetitive with future batteries in aircraft. The effective energy density comes in at something like 1-1.5kWh/kg.

Aircraft are much better served by biofuels, synthetic fuels or other liquid fuels.

For long-range aviation, yes, but it's in regional/commuter use where liquid H2 may have a role. As biofuels will almost certainly remain severely limited in volume, it needs to be restricted to only those tasks which absolutely require them, and that's long-range aviation.

mux wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:06 am
The types of niches best served by hydrogen from electrolysis are places where you need extremely few filling stations, have a predictable consumption so you can downscale logistics as much as possible and a lot of weight/volume accomodation. Trains, in short. And stationary applications. The first hydrogen trains are sort of interesting, even as a FOAK project they are already nominally cheaper than diesel.

Yes, trains anywhere electrification isn't economic owing to low traffic densities, but also long-haul trucking seems a likely usage. Battery weight matters there.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:04 pm

Re cost of H2, potential for scale-up, see
Path to hydrogen
competitiveness

A cost perspective
https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/ ... tudy-1.pdf

Published by the Hydrogen Council, so 'consider the source' applies. This GCC article summarizes the major points: https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/0 ... 22-hc.html
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:24 pm

Anyone talk to a Mirai owner? This guy did...

"I was recently in the bay area and there was a line of Toyota Mirai's. I chatted with one of the owners. They are a pain in the ass. Many of the filling stations are off line. He had to drive 15 miles to this one, and at about 15 to fill from empty, car number 5 in the line is in for an hour to fill."

So much for that five minute fill up.

http://www.myrav4ev.com/forum/viewtopic ... e88#unread
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:04 pm

smkettner wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:24 pm
Anyone talk to a Mirai owner? This guy did...

"I was recently in the bay area and there was a line of Toyota Mirai's. I chatted with one of the owners. They are a pain in the ass. Many of the filling stations are off line. He had to drive 15 miles to this one, and at about 15 to fill from empty, car number 5 in the line is in for an hour to fill."

So much for that five minute fill up.

http://www.myrav4ev.com/forum/viewtopic ... e88#unread
My aunt leased a Mirai for the carpool sticker and free fuel. She has to drive 7-miles away from home just to fill up. Luckily, her commute is timed just right for her to get groceries along the way during the weekends (driving 7-miles to get groceries?!?!). She knows she's been lucky with it, because it's her second year with it and she's been caught without fueling access a couple times (once was more than enough of a hassle!). As soon as her lease is up, she's going to check out the RAV4 Prime. Anything with carpool access that isn't an FCEV!
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mux
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Re: Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:38 am

To be fair that's just anecdotal, it'd be much more informative to gauge the experience of, say, 100 FCEV drivers and see what they do and don't like about it and what their upgrade plans would be, if they had to choose today.

There are a LOT of municipal Mirais around, like, I'd wager it is at least a plurality if not a majority. Those are driven on and off by multiple people with often just one person generally responsible for fueling or even aware of how the process works. The rest just drive them. I'd imagine, it being an EV, that the experience of most of those people has to be pretty positive. If there's a hydrogen shortage, they'll just switch over to other vehicles so no harm done.

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