thankyouOB
Posts: 3583
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Leaf Number: 1442
Location: Coastal LA

Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Sun Oct 23, 2011 10:18 am

15000 miles a year / 25 mpg X $5 a gallon = 3k as opposed to $2400 now.
$6 makes it $3600
and $7 makes it $4200 for gasoline.

those numbers affect who has interest in no-gas vehicles.

as the LATimes points out today:
High gas prices and a sluggish economy are boosting U.S. sales of motor scooters.

In the first half of this year, the major brands -– including Vespa, Piaggio, Honda and Yamaha -– sold 18,198 scooters, up 28.9% from the same period last year. The increase was greater than any other catagory of motorcycle, according to the Motorcycle Industry Council.
may reserve/delivery 4/30/11
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ECOtality/LADWP/ Blink 4/4/11
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Gardena Nissan, msrp -1k
red SL with etec L3
SOLAR POWERED since 2008

GRA
Posts: 12277
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:39 pm

thankyouOB wrote:15000 miles a year / 25 mpg X $5 a gallon = 3k as opposed to $2400 now.
$6 makes it $3600
and $7 makes it $4200 for gasoline.

those numbers affect who has interest in no-gas vehicles.
<snip>

Sure. But when they compare a Leaf to a Versa, the latter costs 1/3rd to 1/2 as much up front (not counting the subsidies), so even with the lower cost of operation of the Leaf, when if ever do you see a positive balance? And the Versa can go anywhere, while the Leaf can't. So if you can afford to pay $35k up front for a second car that has a guaranteed range of maybe 50 miles, fine, but for those who need one car to do everything, a BEV is a pretty hard sell at the moment. And PHEVs will have to get cheaper quickly too; a $2,500 premium over a conventional hybrid _may_ be acceptable, but $5,000 - $15,000 isn't. Once battery prices come down and on-board range improves, it will be another matter.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

User avatar
Stanton
Forum Supporter
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Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:56 am
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Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Tue Oct 25, 2011 3:52 pm

I can't be the only one who thinks Nissan really got it "right" with this (gen 1) EV:
1) 100 miles range is fine for an 'around town' car
2) I wouldn't have bought leather seats even if available; you have to remember leather is brutal in warm/hot weather climates (which are ideal for EVs)
3) As has been pointed out, the car is already <$30k with the rebate, and I believe battery prices will drop by the time the rebates expire (which could easily be a couple of years yet) due to:
-->technology advancements
-->unit volume discounts
2011 Blue Ocean SV w/floor mats & window tint
Lithium Pros 12v LiFePO4 battery w/Antigravity Battery Tracker
FIAMM 74100 horns
Wet Okole seat covers
Tor's low-power heater mod
2013 sun visor
Battery Pack replaced (Rev E) @51 months and 41k miles

thankyouOB
Posts: 3583
Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2011 11:14 am
Delivery Date: 30 Apr 2011
Leaf Number: 1442
Location: Coastal LA

Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:16 pm

half as much?
one third as much?
I bought my Leaf with rebates for 20k. so now it is 22.5k
Comparing it to a Versa? which costs, you claim, 10k to 14k compared to the Leaf but without the nav nad phone and power all, which is standard equipment on the Leaf?
So, I am there in a few years.
if you are asking what the pay-back period is, you are asking the wrong question.

You sound like an EV opponent.
Are you that?
GRA wrote:
thankyouOB wrote:15000 miles a year / 25 mpg X $5 a gallon = 3k as opposed to $2400 now.
$6 makes it $3600
and $7 makes it $4200 for gasoline.

those numbers affect who has interest in no-gas vehicles.
<snip>

Sure. But when they compare a Leaf to a Versa, the latter costs 1/3rd to 1/2 as much up front (not counting the subsidies), so even with the lower cost of operation of the Leaf, when if ever do you see a positive balance? And the Versa can go anywhere, while the Leaf can't. So if you can afford to pay $35k up front for a second car that has a guaranteed range of maybe 50 miles, fine, but for those who need one car to do everything, a BEV is a pretty hard sell at the moment. And PHEVs will have to get cheaper quickly too; a $2,500 premium over a conventional hybrid _may_ be acceptable, but $5,000 - $15,000 isn't. Once battery prices come down and on-board range improves, it will be another matter.

GRA
Posts: 12277
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:09 pm

thankyouOB wrote:half as much?
one third as much?
I bought my Leaf with rebates for 20k. so now it is 22.5k
As I clearly stated, without the subsidies. We all hope that mass production and the learning curve will drop the price of batteries significantly by the time the subsidies expire, but considering the current political foofaraw around Solyndra and the parlous state of federal and state economies, there's no guarantee that the subsidies will be available as long as they are supposed to be.

Comparing it to a Versa? which costs, you claim, 10k to 14k compared to the Leaf but without the nav nad phone and power all, which is standard equipment on the Leaf?
None of which is essential, although in the case of the Leaf, the nav./data system does help to introduce people to the car's capabilities, leaving fewer of them stranded. OTOH, Carwings seems to be getting a lot of flak for not updating charging stations often enough, and the Smartphone apps for Chargepoint, Recargo etc. seem to be more useful.

If stripping out the nav. system would drop the price (and thus make the car more accessible to the mainstream consumer), I'm all for it. That seems to be what GM has done with the Volt for 2012, stripping off some options to get the MSRP down below $40k. The car still costs at least $10k and probably $15 or even $20k more than a comparable Cruze Eco, with which it shares the platform. I just found a Cruze Eco listed for $18,425. Early adopters will buy the Volt, the mainstream will buy the Cruze until the Volt's price drops. As it is, the cheapest Versa lists for $10,990 with a stick (which I prefer, although I realize I'm in a small minority), $12,760 with a CVT. Hatchback versions start at $14k plus.

So, I am there in a few years.
if you are asking what the pay-back period is, you are asking the wrong question.
Which illustrates the difference between the early adopter and mainstream markets - the latter is almost completely non-ideological as far is technology is concerned - up front cost, early ROI and support infrastructure is far more important to the latter (see Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High Tech Products to Mainstream Customers"). After all, the current Leaf buyer demographic is 45-55, owns a house and has a median family income of $140k, so there's a lot more disposable income available to buy cars suited for specific purposes.

You sound like an EV opponent.
Are you that?
I sound like an EV opponent?! How on earth do you parse that out? Being pro-any technology doesn't preclude understanding the current limitations of that technology. For a fairly complete statement of where my thinking is currently at, read the first post from me on this page:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 1&start=30" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;







GRA wrote:
thankyouOB wrote:15000 miles a year / 25 mpg X $5 a gallon = 3k as opposed to $2400 now.
$6 makes it $3600
and $7 makes it $4200 for gasoline.

those numbers affect who has interest in no-gas vehicles.
<snip>

Sure. But when they compare a Leaf to a Versa, the latter costs 1/3rd to 1/2 as much up front (not counting the subsidies), so even with the lower cost of operation of the Leaf, when if ever do you see a positive balance? And the Versa can go anywhere, while the Leaf can't. So if you can afford to pay $35k up front for a second car that has a guaranteed range of maybe 50 miles, fine, but for those who need one car to do everything, a BEV is a pretty hard sell at the moment. And PHEVs will have to get cheaper quickly too; a $2,500 premium over a conventional hybrid _may_ be acceptable, but $5,000 - $15,000 isn't. Once battery prices come down and on-board range improves, it will be another matter.
[/quote]
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SanDust
Posts: 1363
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 10:54 am

Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:51 pm

GRA wrote:I sound like an EV opponent?! How on earth do you parse that out?
If you understand the technology and the business issues you'll need to get used to this. Some people think that if you don't agree with everything they want to believe is true then you're the enemy. In these instances facts just make it worse.

I don't believe you're the enemy but I don't believe there is much chance the tax credits will go away. Too much reliance. However, the credits might be changed. That might not be a bad thing if they expand the number available to any manufacturer but put a limit on the date.

GRA
Posts: 12277
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: The Next Leaf Selling Points

Fri Oct 28, 2011 2:32 pm

SanDust wrote: <snip>

I don't believe you're the enemy but I don't believe there is much chance the tax credits will go away. Too much reliance. However, the credits might be changed. That might not be a bad thing if they expand the number available to any manufacturer but put a limit on the date.
Let's hope you're right. Here's an example of what they're up against:

http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/ele ... -subsidies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We'll have to see if they survive whatever happens with the joint budget negotiating committee next month, and then the results of national elections next year.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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