Actually, I believe that at least the Phoenix curve is their model, slightly refined from data they got from Carwings. Correct me if I am wrong, but Nissan stated that Phoenix Leafs are on track for 76% capacity remaining after 5 years at 7500 miles per year using the Carwings data they have since the Leaf started selling in Arizona. Of course, this was a real revelation to all of us, because it meant that 12500 miles a year was "high mileage" in Phoenix, and that the predicted EOL (70%) was more like 4.5 years if you drive 12500 miles a year, not 10 years.tbleakne wrote:I commend all the detailed work that has been reported on this thread, using solid analysis to apply corrections, but I still agree with this comment posted on pg 1. The curves Nissan gave to TickTock are not data, but rather their model. We should suspect that this model has been massaged to fit with the optimistic projections that Nissan is still standing behind. I am concerned that folks might put more faith in your results than is warranted to the extent that they are based upon their model.
You have to remember that Nissan's curves were to show the overall trend, and are likely a rough summary of their findings. They most likely know about annual variation, but they are looking at the big picture.One clue that Nissan's curves might not be based upon solid science is that they show no seasonal variation, contrary to what we know will happen from the Arrenhius factor.