johnlocke
Posts: 444
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Delivery Date: 14 Dec 2015
Leaf Number: 300582

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:05 pm

Battery leasing from Nissan is never going to happen. Neither is installation of a larger battery in an older Leaf. If anybody does either of those things, it will be a third party. There are a couple of companies flirting with the idea but nobody has actually done it yet.

The new 60 KWH leafs stand a chance of lasting 10 years in a moderate climate. The larger battery allows for fewer cycles per given distance. If you assume 150 mi/charge and a battery lifespan of 1000-1500 cycles then 150,000 mi - 225,000 mi lifespan for the car seems pretty reasonable. For the average driver that's 10-15 years of driving. The bet is off for anyone in the south or southwest because the car lacks a TMS for the battery. TMS might not be a big factor if the battery spends a significant amount of time at partial charge and gets charged at night. I wouldn't take that bet but others might.

Nissan is a lot more interested in selling you a new Leaf than it is in repairing your old one. Nisan's price to replace that battery is going to remain high to encourage you to replace your Leaf with a new one.
2016 SV, New battery at 45K mi.
Jamul, CA
San Diego East County

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:28 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:05 pm
The new 60 KWH leafs stand a chance of lasting 10 years in a moderate climate. The larger battery allows for fewer cycles per given distance. If you assume 150 mi/charge and a battery lifespan of 1000-1500 cycles then 150,000 mi - 225,000 mi lifespan for the car seems pretty reasonable. For the average driver that's 10-15 years of driving. The bet is off for anyone in the south or southwest because the car lacks a TMS for the battery. TMS might not be a big factor if the battery spends a significant amount of time at partial charge and gets charged at night. I wouldn't take that bet but others might.
.
The LEAF battery degradation is much more a matter of temperature than charge cycles. Surely that has been shown ad-nauseum ?
Or perhaps by 'moderate climate' you were thinking of the Pacific NW or cooler ?
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:14 pm

johnlocke wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:05 pm
Battery leasing from Nissan is never going to happen.

[...]

Nissan is a lot more interested in selling you a new Leaf than it is in repairing your old one. Nisan's price to replace that battery is going to remain high to encourage you to replace your Leaf with a new one.
Maybe so, and over the years since I leased a Leaf, the company has shown that it can be stubborn, but Nissan appears to be not doing entirely well, as a corporate entity:
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&s ... xrGICg11:0

And, underscoring this, they seem to be trying to unload a $1bn unit:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-niss ... SKBN1W30PN

and they have recently named a new CEO, not to mention the legal battles and misconduct accusations:
https://global.nissannews.com/en/releas ... 91008-02-e
https://global.nissannews.com/en/releas ... 91009-02-e

and sales of the Leaf in the US in 2019 are mediocre - about 1/12 the sales of the Model 3, and not equaling Bolt sales even when GM appears not to be trying as hard as it could:
https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sa ... mber-2019/

So, part of where I'm coming from on this suggestion (and again, I doubt that it's really a good suggestion, but just putting it out there for discussion) is for those of us who see the Leaf Plus as a vehicle that could serve a larger addressable market in the US, maybe there are one or two things the company could do to address the lingering concern around battery life and overall vehicle depreciation concerns that may get in the way of a significant number of buying decisions in the hotter parts of the US.

As well, I have in mind that I believe Renault has engaged in some battery leasing in Europe. I don't know the pros and cons that have emerged from that.

As to the heat, I also sometimes wonder how all this will play out in Mexico (where last time I checked, Nissan had something like 20-25% of the overall light duty vehicle market). Are they just going to try to sell the Leaf variants and not bother too much about the climate and possible impact on battery life? Over time, if the batteries do not really hold up that well in the heat, then I have to wonder how the Mexican buyers will respond. This whole range degradation thing is a drag and a pain-in-the-neck topic, but for some folks trying to make a major financial life decision (such as a $40k+ interest out the door vehicle purchase), it seems a legit question.

For those who have never seen it, this "Town Hall" meeting from 2013 may get across that some of the buyers at the time were very upset.
It's a nearly 2 hour long video, and I'm not suggesting anyone watch a lot of it, but as I recall, here and there some folks stood up and expressed themselves as to what they thought of putting that much money into a vehicle that so quickly lost a decent chunk of already very modest range. Of course the ranges are much better today and that may help reduce dissatisfaction, but like I said, in case some may not have been aware of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuPQe23vP0Y&t=1306s
Nissan LEAF Town Hall Meeting - Battery Capacity Reduction & Warranty
4,966 views•Jan 13, 2013
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:36 pm

jlsoaz wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:14 pm
...the lingering concern around battery life
.
:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:51 pm

SageBrush wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:36 pm
jlsoaz wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:14 pm
...the lingering concern around battery life
.
:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.
I know a member of the Tucson association who had a replacement Lizard battery, under warranty, and (if I understood correctly) he told me that he is fine with it and has not experienced the levels of degradation he had with the previous battery. Still, I think these are the exceptions that underscore the rule, which is that the concern is still there, and there is a reason for this.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:56 am

jlsoaz wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:51 pm
SageBrush wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:36 pm
jlsoaz wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:14 pm
...the lingering concern around battery life
.
:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.
I know a member of the Tucson association who had a replacement Lizard battery, under warranty, and (if I understood correctly) he told me that he is fine with it and has not experienced the levels of degradation he had with the previous battery. Still, I think these are the exceptions that underscore the rule, which is that the concern is still there, and there is a reason for this.
.
When you write "concern" I think of some some low statistical probability of a poor outcome but this is physics: LEAF batteries in Phoenix type weather degrade at ~ 3x the rate of the PNW
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

jlsoaz
Posts: 725
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
Leaf Number: 24218
Location: Southern Arizona, USA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:20 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:56 am
jlsoaz wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:51 pm
SageBrush wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:36 pm
.
:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.
I know a member of the Tucson association who had a replacement Lizard battery, under warranty, and (if I understood correctly) he told me that he is fine with it and has not experienced the levels of degradation he had with the previous battery. Still, I think these are the exceptions that underscore the rule, which is that the concern is still there, and there is a reason for this.
.
When you write "concern" I think of some some low statistical probability of a poor outcome but this is physics: LEAF batteries in Phoenix type weather degrade at ~ 3x the rate of the PNW
Well, I went through battery degradation in Arizona, and sat through the Town Hall, and participated in the PIA data, so, yes, I'm familiar. When I try to use somewhat moderate language in discussing it for today's purposes, it is to try to honor the fact that a lot of time has passed and it seems possible that Nissan has made at least some improvement. It is also to try to remain conceptually clear - do we, or Nissan, know with certainty that the modern 2019 ~60 kWh batteries will degrade exactly as badly as some of the 24 kWh batteries circa 2011-2012? I don't know that. I do suspect that degradation will still be enough of a problem so that I recommend friends around here either steer clear of the vehicle, or (if they really must keep the option open, or have needs which won't be impacted as much by severe degradation) then at least research the matter very closely, .... at least until we can learn more.
Former lessee 2012 SL
http://www.pluginamerica.org/surveys/ba ... hp?vid=229
2017-October: bght 2013 Volt
will buy 150+ mile BEV when they become less expensive on used market
opinions expressed are my own

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:14 am

LEAF batteries from ~ 4/2013 are a little better chemistry wise when it comes to heat related degradation. A modest amount. No where near enough to matter when it comes to deciding on a LEAF in a Phoenix type climate.
For 99.99% of car buyers the straightforward answer is to stay away

The question is slightly more fuzzy for places like Texas, but not by much.
How about the middle 50% of climate in the USA ? Only informed buyers will stand a chance of coming out of the experience not cursing Nissan, and that is almost always a case of either buying a used LEAF and letting Nissan pick up the depreciation bill, or leasing a new LEAF on one of those occasions when Nissan is dumping the cars, or taking advantage of massive tax subsidy (thank you, Colorado.)

Swinging back to hot climates, an EV with a well-engineered TMS is a no-brainer. You keep pining for LEAF cheap and long lived in the heat but that is just not going to happen due to physics. And no amount of finance musical chairs is going to change it.

Answer this: if the LEAF did not have a $7,500 tax credit, would you be on this forum ? Don't misunderstand me -- I am not against the tax credit at all, I'm just pointing out that the LEAF only exists due to perverted value. The engineering is grossly noncompetitive in general, about 3x so in hot climates.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 3150
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:59 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:14 am
LEAF batteries from ~ 4/2013 are a little better chemistry wise when it comes to heat related degradation. A modest amount. No where near enough to matter when it comes to deciding on a LEAF in a Phoenix type climate.
For 99.99% of car buyers the simple answer is: stay away

The question is slightly more fuzzy for places like Texas, but not by much.
How about the middle 50% of climate in the USA ? Only informed buyers will stand a chance of coming out of the experience not cursing Nissan.
Can't do math, talk nonsense. So let us do some math.

For a buyer in Phoenix "type climate", the worst outcome is to have the battery just barely miss the warranty, assuming you drive 12,500 miles a year. Many people do.

So 100,001 miles for roughly $30k, after Federal tax rebate and other discounts. Cost of the car alone (not counting insurance, tires, maintenance and fuel cost, etc.) is $30,000 / 100,0001 miles = 30 cents per mile. Or $30,000 / 8 years = $3,750 per year. Sure, give or take a bit. Assuming it is worthless after 8 years/100k miles, unlikely.

Another opinion:

https://www.kbb.com/new-cars/5-year-cos ... c-vehicle/

Total cost of an electric is about 56 cents per mile, compared with fleet weighted average cost of 62 cents per mile, according to AAA for 15k miles per year.

The endless Tesla Trolling gets tiresome.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

WetEV
Posts: 3150
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:09 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:14 am
LEAF batteries from ~ 4/2013 are a little better chemistry wise when it comes to heat related degradation. A modest amount. No where near enough to matter when it comes to deciding on a LEAF in a Phoenix type climate.
For 99.99% of car buyers the straightforward answer is to stay away

The question is slightly more fuzzy for places like Texas, but not by much.
How about the middle 50% of climate in the USA ? Only informed buyers will stand a chance of coming out of the experience not cursing Nissan, and that is almost always a case of either buying a used LEAF and letting Nissan pick up the depreciation bill, or leasing a new LEAF on one of those occasions when Nissan is dumping the cars, or taking advantage of massive tax subsidy (thank you, Colorado.)

Swinging back to hot climates, an EV with a well-engineered TMS is a no-brainer. You keep pining for LEAF cheap and long lived in the heat but that is just not going to happen due to physics. And no amount of finance musical chairs is going to change it.

Answer this: if the LEAF did not have a $7,500 tax credit, would you be on this forum ? Don't misunderstand me -- I am not against the tax credit at all, I'm just pointing out that the LEAF only exists due to perverted value. The engineering is grossly noncompetitive in general, about 3x so in hot climates.
So do the math at MSRP. Leaf S is $30,885.

Ignore the tax credit and the usual $2000 dealer discount.

Still cheaper than the AAA 2019 Weighted Average cost per mile. Not three time higher.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

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