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Ready2plugin
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The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 1:20 pm

Has anyone read or commented on this (besides EVNow)? This man must have a large following based on the number of comments, even though half are from the author John Petersen. I would like to see if we can take him down a peg or two because I just can't get around his logic of the cost of EV vs. gas along with the main topic of the article, battery power loss. Please let me know if I'm missing something. Below is the link. Thanks!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/225208- ... f-ev-range

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gasmiser1
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:02 pm

Maybe Petersen is a plant for the petroleum industry. Based on his credentials, he isn't a scientist, never owned a hybrid, let alone an EV (cars he owned mentioned Mercedes, Porsche, NSX, etc.). I'll bet he hasn't ever ridden in an EV. His graphs looked like they were hand sketch out and not accurate.

Petersen needs to get some real world, first hand knowledge before commenting/bashing) on EVs.
2nd leased 2014 Nissan LEAF, 2500 miles, leased 5/4/14
(1st Leaf, 3/29/11, leased until 5/4/14, 45,000 miles)
2014 Chevy Volt, 11,200 miles, leased 11/2013
Future Tesla Model S owner :-)
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evnow
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:10 pm

I've had various run ins with Peterson. He is a lead acid guy - used to be a director is one of the lead acid battery makers.

Note that he has used studies about batteries with a different chemistry (cobalt oxide) - and also picked the worst curves.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

smkettner
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:16 pm

He likes to factor in the battery replacement of the EV but somehow missed the engine replacement and maintenance of his Porsche.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
RAV4 traded in for I-Pace Dec 2018

indyflick
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 3:47 pm

John Petersen wrote on Seeking Alpha wrote: I've only lived through the heart of one industrial revolution as an adult, but in that time [sic] there were no giant leaps. Progress was a series of incremental baby steps that covered immense ground over time. There were always "latest and greatest technologies" that promised to change the world, but were obsolete before they became profitable. My crystal ball can't look beyond 2015. I certainly can't get excited about promises that won't come true until after that date.
I'm not sure if that's the stupidest thing I've ever read, but it's way up there. Most ultra-conservatives clearly have trouble dealing with all the rapid progress going on all around them, but this may be the first denier I've read!

AndyH
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 4:04 pm

Sorry...it's pretty easy to go more than 200K miles on ICE these days. I've got 394,000 miles on my car - original engine and transmission. Yes - starter, alternator, diesel injection pump, and injector nozzles have been replaced, along with the normal body/suspension parts one would expect.

But after reading this gent's article and the comments, what I'm left with is the strong belief that it's better not to respond to his article(s) because it'll only make him dig in deeper. We're certainly not going to change his mind.

Here's something from what might appear as coming from 'left field' that I think we can apply to EVs. There's a small company in New Mexico that's been experimenting with highly efficient housing for more than 40 years. It took years of battling with the state and local government to get permission to continue development because what he was building was so far from what the government considers 'normal' that they couldn't wrap their minds around the project.
I think a barrier between us and having good direction for the future is that we...everywhere I have been, every group of people I have talked to from all over the country and all over the world, they sort of base what they are going to do in the future on the present and on the past, which I would call convention. Like the state of New Mexico said, "You can't use a catch water system in New Mexico, because there's not enough precipitation." They were basing their assessment of this idea for the future on conventional catch water systems and conventional use of water...we can no longer base the future on convention. We have to base the future on invention. We have to be able to take a few leaps if we're even going to have a future. We're still holding on to the past, but we're going to have to take a leap of faith for a future.
[Water from the Sky, Michael Reynolds, page 27]

The author of the 'alpha' piece claims to be an accountant and attorney that works with tech companies. He appears to me to be deep on the 'inside' of the machine built on ICE and cheap oil - he's inside the status-quo economy where anything different is a threat. He's strongly in the 'base tomorrow on yesterday and today' camp. Someone suggesting that there's a viable alternative to gasoline might as well be saying they're going to ration his oxygen from now on - now it's an ego and survival issue. From his perspective, his paper is correct. To those of us that know otherwise, he's a nutcase. And never the twain shall meet.

Back to water. I expect us EVers in a sea of ICE might feel a bit like Reynolds in a London Taxi with the driver complaining about a lack of drinking water:
Just imagine the feeling of being in a London black taxi cab, driving in the rain; the windshield wipers are going on their highest speed; it's just dumping. You're in traffic looking at row houses just getting pounded with water from the sky all around and the driver about a water shortage! I mean that is off the wall. So many incidents like that...what the hell is going on? And then here we are out in the desert and we've got banana trees growing from harvested water.
It's all ok - there's room for both groups. I'm certainly not going to change the author's mind - but I'm also not going to change my direction because the author - or thousands of misguided authors - think they should define 'normal' for me.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 4:13 pm

Probably a lot of truth to that article.

IMO the satisfied owners will be the ones who aren't counting on more than about 40 miles a day, maybe 50. EVangelists who are amped up on the technology won't mind being inconvenienced hunting around for places to plug in if they push the range, some may have connections lined up, others see it as a challenge. But for those who aren't approaching EV ownership as a "cause"... if their routines take them much further than that there's a good chance they will regret choosing the Leaf.

That said, 40 miles a day is well beyond the national average. But some people are more average than others :-)
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

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evnow
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 4:15 pm

I think anyone worried about range becoming an issue in a few years, should lease now and get an EV with larger range in a few years.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

indyflick
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 5:17 pm

evnow wrote:I think anyone worried about range becoming an issue in a few years, should lease now and get an EV with larger range in a few years.
I thought about that, but decided to go ahead and purchase for a few reasons. If I purchase, they can't remove it from the road and crush it. Second, I figure I will be able to get the new battery technology later anyway. Third, often the first generation of a product is actually more rugged than later versions. This is because over time they tend to cost down and sacrifice some of the durability.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: The Cruel Realities of EV Range on Seeking Alpha

Wed Sep 15, 2010 5:22 pm

indyflick wrote:
evnow wrote:I think anyone worried about range becoming an issue in a few years, should lease now and get an EV with larger range in a few years.
I thought about that, but decided to go ahead and purchase for a few reasons. If I purchase, they can't remove it from the road and crush it. Second, I figure I will be able to get the new battery technology later anyway. Third, often the first generation of a product is actually more rugged than later versions. This is because over time they tend to cost down and sacrifice some of the durability.
Not likely to get crushed. Yes- The leaf seems overbuilt based on what I have seen which explains the high weight.

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