SageBrush
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:32 pm

California has been installing ~ 4 H2 locations a year recently and each location typically has the ability to service 2 cars at a time.
For context, California has ~ 8,000 fossil 'stations.' I *think* that a station serves one vehicle at a time and many stations serve up more than one type of fossil.

At current rates and costs, 1000 years and $3*10^6*4000 = $12 Billion should do the trick ... unless the car is driven outside of CA.

And if the above is not convincing :shock: remember that the Mirai is $56k for Prius level performance, 20+ cents a mile fuel, and 2/3 of source fuel from fossils when operated in CA.

It is insanity. Something Trumpers or AGW denialists could love.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:51 pm

GRA wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:51 am
There will always be a niche market, and as BEVs continue to improve in capability of course their market will slowly grow, with sloooow being the operative word, barring some outside influence (subsidies, mandates) that favors them. That is, until they provide similar capability at a comparable price to ICEs. Same goes for any AFV.
"Slow" meaning doubling every three years or so. Looks slow for a while...
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

SageBrush
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:17 am

WetEV wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 9:51 pm
GRA wrote:
Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:51 am
There will always be a niche market, and as BEVs continue to improve in capability of course their market will slowly grow, with sloooow being the operative word, barring some outside influence (subsidies, mandates) that favors them. That is, until they provide similar capability at a comparable price to ICEs. Same goes for any AFV.
"Slow" meaning doubling every three years or so. Looks slow for a while...
Exactly right, and upheaval of the ICE industry will happen way before even a 1/10 of the new car market switches to EV. ICE is a commodity industry that covers its fixed costs with the first ~ 95% of sales and is profitable from the final 5% of sales. The strength of the industry is their price point but once a competitor is near it with a superior product the old industry collapse is just around the corner.

From 1%:
2%
4%
8%

2-3 doubling times away. IIRC EV is closing in on 2% worldwide already
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:06 am

$56k for the mirage!
Minimum 20 cent a mile operating cost?

What exactly is convincing people these things aren't any thing but dead on arrival?
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:28 am

Oilpan4 wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:06 am
$56k for the mirage!
Minimum 20 cent a mile operating cost?

What exactly is convincing people these things aren't any thing but dead on arrival?
Not everyone is interested in the exactly minimum cost per mile.

Suppose you were driving CA => NYC and back often. You might care a lot more about minimizing time rather than cost. Time is money, and all that.

The main transportation use might not be in cars, but rather medium range aircraft. It is much safer to debug and develop systems on the grounds...
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

SageBrush
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:33 am

WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:28 am
Suppose you were driving CA => NYC and back often. You might care a lot more about minimizing time rather than cost. Time is money, and all that.
You could drive to ~ the NV border, and then push the car to NYC. Is that your idea for saving time ?
Last edited by SageBrush on Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

WetEV
Posts: 3160
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:40 am

SageBrush wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:33 am
WetEV wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:28 am
Suppose you were driving CA => NYC and back often. You might care a lot more about minimizing time rather than cost. Time is money, and all that.
You could drive to ~ the NV border, and then push the car to NYC.
I'm not a hydrogen backer.

Hydrogen would need (Oh Duh) more fueling stations before such a trip would be possible. And yes, the cost per mile subsidized would be rather higher than the same trip in a BEV.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:13 am

Do any of the hydrogen fan boys know how much hydrogen is going to cost?
The only way I can figure people are going for this is they have to think hydrogen is going to be free or so cheap it's almost free.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

SageBrush
Posts: 4907
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: NM

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:24 am

Oilpan4 wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:13 am
Do any of the hydrogen fan boys know how much hydrogen is going to cost?
The only way I can figure people are going for this is they have to think hydrogen is going to be free or so cheap it's almost free.
.
There are lots of people like myself who think hydrogen might have a future -- just not in passenger cars.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Two years in Colorado, now in NM
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

Oilpan4
Gold Member
Posts: 900
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:51 pm
Delivery Date: 10 May 2018
Leaf Number: 004270

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:55 am

Hydrogen definitely has a place, just not in passenger vehicles.
2011 white SL leaf with 2014 batt.
Chargers: Panasonic brick moded for 240v, duosida 16a 240v and a 10kw setec portable CHAdeMO
Location: 88103

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