. . . The report shows how thes massive changes on the horizon caused by automation, connectivity, decarbonization and sharing, represent an opportunity to move towards a transport system that is more efficient, safer, less polluting and more accessible than the current one centered on private car ownership. . . .
The authors assess current and future trends in the road transport sector and identify two key success factors:
- Improved governance of the multimodal transport system where the role of all actors is defined and coordinated by accountable public authorities; and
Establishment of a network of European living labs where innovative mobility solutions are introduced and tested with the direct involvement of citizens.
Between 1995 and 2015, the total number of passenger kilometers (pkm) in the EU-28 increased by 23.8 % to 6,602 billion. The vast majority of that was covered by passenger cars (around 4,700 billion pkm). It is expected that EU transport activity will continue to grow in the coming decades, with road transport maintaining its dominant role.
The growth in road passenger transport is estimated at 16% during 2010-2030 and at 30% for 2010-2050. Road freight transport is projected to increase by 33% by 2030 and 55% by 2050.
By 2050, experts project that 84% people in Europe will live in urban areas. People above 60 will make up one third of the population. This will require mobility systems that are inclusive and accessible to everyone.
The century-old car-centred view of personal transport takes a heavy toll on the economy, society and environment, says the JRC team. For example, in 2015, more than 1 million road accidents causing personal injuries and 26,000 deaths occurred in the EU.
In some urban areas, such as London, commuters lose up to 100 hours per year in congestion. Productivity losses from road congestion account for 1% of the EU’s gross domestic product.
Road transport is also a significant and growing contributor to air pollution and climate change, responsible for up to 30% of small particulate matter emissions in European cities, as well as for more than 70% of CO2 emissions in the EU from all modes of transport. . . .