Powerful peak oil article "Be Afraid"

[abasile]

Even in a best case scenario, the long-term price trend for oil is up. And even at today's prices, the cost of oil is a drag on the economy. The question is, how quickly will oil prices increase in the coming decades? Quickly enough to cause catastrophic economic damage, or slowly enough for us to adjust? The mere fact that we don't have a sure answer means that our society is at risk and we need to be pursuing alternatives quickly. There's no point in being fatalistic or downcast about this; God gave us the brains to use the resources we've been given more wisely. So, encourage people to drive electric!

 

[Nekota]

I view the Peak Oil label as below $100/bbl oil. Another curve for $200 and another at $500 would add a different perspective to the information. Since this information was prepared 2 years ago, what does the current data say about the predictions? I'm no fan of oil and the resources we have spent on it but oil is an important energy source and will remain so. It's the price we have to pay for it and the way we use it that matters.

 

[AmarilloLeaf]

When I went to China a couple years ago, I was expecting to see hoards of bicycles all over the place, just like it was in National Geographic as a kid.

After getting stuck in my first Beijing traffic jam, and seeing very few bicycles, but lots of VW's , Audis, Buicks, Cherys, etc., I can confirm that everyone in China WANTS their own car. Right now most people in China do not own a car, but they WANT to.

In 2009 there were 62 million cars in China. In 2020, at current production rates, there will be 200 million cars.

http://chinaautoweb.com/2010/09/how-many-cars-are-there-in-china/

Ditto for India. In 2010 there were 40 million passenger cars in India. They actually are projecting 611 million cars in 2050.
http://www.rediff.com/money/2004/oct/23car.htm

There is no way that India could support 611 million cars. They obviously aren't factoring in oil prices in these projections.

The fact is that not only is there going to be problems with oil production, but the USA will not be the biggest user of oil either. We will be outbid by China and India. China didn't launch it's first aircraft carrier as a PR stunt. They will be willing to protect their access to oil as much, or more, than we will.

 

[Boomer23]

And if it makes you feel better Paul alot of the screen names above do not represent the majority of members on MNL. We have all just seen different drafts of this information and already absorbed it.

+1, Paul. Hence my decisions to drive a LEAF on solar PV power and a Prius for the small remaining miles that the LEAF can't handle, my blog and efforts to tell everyone I meet about how great EVs are, and my voting decisions. Have I yet planned to move to that family farm, defended with an arsenal? Not yet, but my ears are open about our future.

 

[TEG]

Paul, we have survived and flourished after ration coupons, shortages, price hikes etc.
As if any of this would be new :roll:

In case anyone doesn't know of Paul, I think we may have him to thank, at least in some part, for the existence of the Leaf at all...
http://www.plugincars.com/paul-scott-becomes-ev-activist-salesman-64689.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks, Paul !

 

[JJnHAWAII]

Peak oil is real and will affect us all at some point in our lifetimes, unless something drastically changes. You won't have to believe in it to have an affect on your everyday life.

This topic has been beat to death, but I will leave it with a few parting words. China and India's thirst for crude will outstrip the worlds supply rather quickly, maybe decades. It doesn't matter if the world output of crude remains constant, which it won't, because if either of those countries continue to grow into major oil importers like Europe or the U.S.A. then they alone will use up the world's supply.

We use oil for more than a transportation fuel, it's uses are all around us. We could not feed this country let alone the rest of the world without it's assistance in industrialized agriculture. That's the keep you up at night moment...

I have seen the briefs first hand and it's not pretty even with all the rosy assumptions built into the models, e.g slow growth for China and India, new major oil reserves found, and my favorite year after year of energy efficiency for everything from home to your car. The models from the major oil companies do not speak of oil, but rather BTU of energy produced and consumed. They are taking into account every energy source we have today, nuclear, wind, natural gas, etc..

With all the rosy predictions the world demand outpaces supply sometime between 2025-2040 depending on who's model is used.

Now, do you really think it is time to cut defense spending or increase it?

 

[Smidge204]

Peak Oil has already come and gone. Extraction already exceeds new discoveries. They are expanding development of tar sands. If that doesn't tell you they're desperate to keep the hydrocarbons flowing, I don't know what will.

I guess the silver lining is running out of fossil crude would be of benefit to the environment as a whole. I just hope people are still able to enjoy it when that time comes!
=Smidge=

 

[smkettner]

Now, do you really think it is time to cut defense spending or increase it?

Time to decrease the military action, budget, and close some of the many bases around the world.
For every dollar reduced spend 50 cents on alternate energy especially solar.
JMHO

 

[mwalsh]

Time to decrease the military action, budget, and close some of the many bases around the world.
For every dollar reduced spend 50 cents on alternate energy especially solar.
JMHO

I would go for all of that. Or at least bringing our fine boys and girls home from shitholes like Afghanistan and Iraq!

 

[gasmiser1]

And if it makes you feel better Paul alot of the screen names above do not represent the majority of members on MNL. We have all just seen different drafts of this information and already absorbed it.

+1, Paul. Hence my decisions to drive a LEAF on solar PV power and a Prius for the small remaining miles that the LEAF can't handle, my blog and efforts to tell everyone I meet about how great EVs are, and my voting decisions. Have I yet planned to move to that family farm, defended with an arsenal? Not yet, but my ears are open about our future.

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+2, thanks Paul.

I don't have solar yet, but I will within the next 3 years :mrgreen: