IEVS: Despite Tesla's Success, July 2019 U.S. EV Sales Fail To Show Growth

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https://insideevs.com/news/363473/july-2019-ev-sales-recap/

Tesla accounts for well over half of all EVs sold in the U.S. in July, but it's not enough.
Based on automakers' sales reports and our estimates, we report a total of 26,395 plug-in electric vehicles were sold in the U.S. in July, compared to last year's 29,598 and last month's 37,818. We hoped the time would never come that we would have to report a year-over-year U.S. EV sales decrease, but it has arrived.

As usual, Tesla has accounted for much of the overall U.S. EV sales numbers for several months now. Meanwhile, some other EVs are seeing sales growth, while others are lackluster. In the first quarter of 2019, Tesla focused its efforts on global deliveries, though the second quarter proved otherwise. Now, despite people's expectations, Tesla produced and delivered an impressive number of vehicles to begin Q3. . . .

With all of that being said, we're sad to report that July 2019 goes into the history books, and not in a positive way. It's the first month since mid-2015 that U.S. EV sales have seen a year-over-year drop. Apparently, any month that Tesla doesn't see a massive increase, there is the potential for an overall drop since other automakers are just not showing significant EV sales improvements. . . .
 
This is a non-story.

Very much expected after federal tax credits again reduced in half at the end of June '19. Also it is very well known that the first month of a quarter is almost always the weakest sales month. Compare this to exactly a year ago when the company was ramping up M3 deliveries and unloading pent-up demand.

Tesla sells worldwide, and the U.S. is becoming an ever smaller percent of their growing market. They will continue to rebound from the very recent last tax credit phaseout drop as they also did six months ago.
 
Tesla has unfortunately been the only major thing floating and growing the segment for several quarters in the U.S.. Certainly a significant portion who bought a M3 since it made its U.S. debut would have bought another plug-in had it never existed. But take out M3 from inception and plug-in growth was already choking.
 
iPlug said:
Tesla has unfortunately been the only major thing floating and growing the segment for several quarters in the U.S.. Certainly a significant portion who bought a M3 since it made its U.S. debut would have bought another plug-in had it never existed. But take out M3 from inception and plug-in growth was already choking.
Yup.
 
iPlug said:
They will continue to rebound from the very recent last tax credit phaseout drop as they also did six months ago.

Really? And your basis for that is?
 
iPlug said:

That's a very naive approach to forecast using historical data! The Nissan Leaf had a great sales history prior to the second year of the MS.
 
Naive, eh? Do you see the trends changing at any recent data point?

So you forecast that August will be lower sales in the United States than the prior two second quarterly months (February and May)?

You would have to explain which new headwinds Tesla faces in the month of August. You have not done that.
 
iPlug said:
Naive, eh? Do you see the trends changing at any recent data point?

M3 U.S. sales are becoming demand limited.
Rolling 3 months U.S. M3 sales in 2019:
months; 1-3, 23K, 2-4, 26K, 3-5, 34K, 4-6, 45K, 5-7, 48K

iPlug said:
So you forecast that August will be lower sales in the United States than the prior two second quarterly months (February and May)?

No, those were exceptionally low months.

iPlug said:
You would have to explain which new headwinds Tesla faces in the month of August. You have not done that.

Again, it's the rate of change of growth. No quarter has yet achieved Q4 2018 M3 sales, 63K. Tesla's sales promos also indicate a demand
plateauing, i.e. a company doesn't in effect drop prices with a strong demand. The M3 is no longer the ultimate cool product to own,
as has been the case for the MS/MX for about the last year. Fully read the InsideEVs report.
 
lorenfb said:
No quarter has yet achieved Q4 2018 M3 sales, 63K.
Total silliness. You know that was the last quarter the full tax credit was available and a wait list was still being chomped through, followed by transition to relieving international demand, then you showed growth picked up in the U.S. after that shake off and continues despite further tax credit phaseouts and claiming (correctly) this is more demand limited now. That only supports my point.

You have yet to provide evidence toward yours.

lorenfb said:
Tesla's sales promos also indicate a demand plateauing, i.e. a company doesn't in effect drop prices with a strong demand.
Mostly not correct on price drops on the M3, at least (the vehicle in discussion). M3 SR+ base prices (the cheapest trim available) were raised in recent months. I got mine for less than the most affordable trim one can get now.

Demand will plateau one day as it does for every vehicle. But that day is not today.
 
iPlug said:
lorenfb said:
No quarter has yet achieved Q4 2018 M3 sales, 63K.
Total silliness. You know that was the last quarter the full tax credit was available and a wait list was still being chomped through, followed by transition to relieving international demand, then you showed growth picked up in the U.S. after that shake off and continues despite further tax credit phaseouts and claiming (correctly) this is more demand limited now. That only supports my point.

You have yet to provide evidence toward yours.

lorenfb said:
Tesla's sales promos also indicate a demand plateauing, i.e. a company doesn't in effect drop prices with a strong demand.
Mostly not correct on price drops on the M3, at least (the vehicle in discussion). M3 SR+ base prices (the cheapest trim available) were raised in recent months. I got mine for less than the most affordable trim one can get now.

Demand will plateau one day as it does for every vehicle. But that day is not today.

Any product that has an increasing demand doesn't require any incentives, whether it's tax credits or discounts!
If consumers perceived true value in Tesla's vehicles or any other BEV, there would be no need for incentives.
When's the last time Apple had price promos or when Amazon or Netflix reduced their subscription fees?
Tesla, given it's automotive business model, is just another automotive company requiring high CAPEX investments
and long product lead times with marginal rates of returns in its future.
 
lorenfb said:
Any product that has an increasing demand doesn't require any incentives, whether it's tax credits or discounts!
If consumers perceived true value in Tesla's vehicles or any other BEV, there would be no need for incentives.
When's the last time Apple had price promos or when Amazon or Netflix reduced their subscription fees?
Tesla, given it's automotive business model, is just another automotive company requiring high CAPEX investments
and long product lead times with marginal rates of returns in its future.
As you pointed out, the long-in-the-tooth Model X and S struggle. This has been entirely expected at the advanced age of these models and with the superiority of the newer M3 in many ways. Very recently, Tesla announced these two are again eligible for lifetime free supercharging. That is not the case for the M3. Incentives for the M3, as noted, have decreased in recent months with increased base price.

So there appear to be no new headwinds for the M3 at the moment, except perhaps the escalating trade tensions with China, which apply to many other manufacturers as well. Unclear how the rapidly being built Tesla Gigafactory there will mitigate future risks with this.
 
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