Wholesale value of the 2013 Leaf @Auction-March '18

Looks like the invisible hand of market demand is firming up prices. They are almost back to what whey were back in April of this year.

My theory is that the used Leaf market will be supply-constrained for at least 2-3 more years just because not too many were sold, which should help to keep them from depreciating too fast.

Valdemar said:

My theory is that the used Leaf market will be supply-constrained for at least 2-3 more years just because not too many were sold, which should help to keep them from depreciating too fast.

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Maybe for 2013 forward.
But the 2011 #s are pretty bad.
A six year old 2011 may end up worth less than $3,000 at auction.

TimLee said:

Valdemar said:

My theory is that the used Leaf market will be supply-constrained for at least 2-3 more years just because not too many were sold, which should help to keep them from depreciating too fast.

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Maybe for 2013 forward.
But the 2011 #s are pretty bad.
A six year old 2011 may end up worth less than $3,000 at auction.

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At some point yes, but in the parallel thread with 2011 Leaf data, cars with 50,000 miles were sold at $6,500, this is better than I expected. It is probably reasonable to expect that a 2011 with a new pack will sell for same or more than an equivalent 2013 with the original pack in retail in the next couple of years, considering the price for a new pack is about $5,500 installed I would expect 2011 to bottom-out around $4,500 in the next couple of years. Pure speculation of course. Another consideration many auction sales are exported, this helps to further thin down the supply.

I'm not seeing any premium at retail for 2011 cars with a refurbished or replaced pack. The sales data does not give any insight into the pack condition of cars at auction.

OrientExpress said:

I'm not seeing any premium at retail for 2011 cars with a refurbished or replaced pack. The sales data does not give any insight into the pack condition of cars at auction.

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May be not at the sales data you have access to, but this doesn't mean that a private party buyer will not consider a 2011 with a new Lizard pack to be same or better value than a 2013 without.

You are absolutely correct, from an informed retail buyers point of view, hunting for that gem is the goal. And perhaps a wholesale buyer will look at battery condition as a determine factor in what to bid, but for the average used car lot auction buyer, it is unlikely that they will be that discerning.

From what I am seeing the prices are going down, not up (at least here on the East Coast). Also the prices are very regional as Leafs bring more on the West Coast than they do on the East Coast. I started a tread with a lot more data than just the screen shot of the MMR.....

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20608

East coast sales are always less than west coast sales. That's why I use the national averages. The way you figure regional price averages is that closer to Opama you are, the higher the price.

I don't know if I got around to posting this but I emailed the used car dealer I went to, on behalf of a colleague who might be interested. His reply on Oct 9th was that auction prices are very high.

He said he got a blue SV w/o QC + LED package and IIRC, it was also w/o premium package. He said his cost @ auction was $10,155 ($9800 + auction fees).

That's crazy compared to the '13 SV WITH premium he picked up (w/about 7K more miles though and worn tires) for me for $8000 + $325 auction fees, making my cost $9,325 + taxes and fees.

He said that also only 6-8 '13 SVs show up each time @ auction. Back when I was in the market, about 20 would be up for auction.

This discussion and the others on the '11/'12's (I own; didn't lease a '12) got me thinking just how much 'value' these LEAF's have depreciated and just how fast that has happened. Granted, the MSRP of at least the very first gen was quite high at $37,250 but most would have seen the $7,500 Fed tax credit and in some cases (my own included) an additional tax credit or cash rebate that further reduces the trade-in/auction values so one would need to deduct those first. Lately, although I'm sure its an automated thing, I've been getting a few Nissan 'bring your LEAF in for a new one; we'll pay you top dollar, etc., etc. ...' so I did a quick 'Black Book' estimate they referenced that showed my '12 with 34K miles w/o a scratch on it worth between $5,300 and $8,600 ... so my almost 4 year old (in 2 months) LEAF has between 14% and 23% 'residual' value (based on strictly MSRP) and between 20% and 33% value with the reduced out-of-pocket based on the credits and rebates --- I'm sorry but that's abysmal; I would have expected these kind of values perhaps in about 6 years but not just a bit less than 4 !!

As an apples and oranges comparison, we saw about 32% residual in trade for our '08 smart coupe against a '14 smart cabrio (cost for the '08 was $15,540 and $5K on the trade-in after 6 years, it had 48K miles on it); so basically I can expect about the same amount for this LEAF; something that cost (at least from the Mfg) as much as 2.4X more; insane!

Of course, some higher end luxury models (Range Rover and some Jaguar's come to mind) have some HUGE depreciation amounts but this seems quite crazy.

There are definitely some decent deals for those who waited for used ones ... and of course the depreciated 'value' doesn't become a factor until you need to sell/trade it or its totaled because of an accident, etc. At 34K I'm borderline losing my first bar for the battery so still plan to keep it; paint still shines, car doesn't look beat (that light tan interior has held up better than I thought it would) and even with a diminished range it will serve as a decent commuter although I would still hope to get in under the 'free' battery replacement at some point down the road; only have a bit over a year so perhaps not, we'll see.

Bottom line, as some have mentioned is that there will be a bottoming out of the values at some point, we just haven't seen that yet.

Thats what I am hearing from the dealers too.

I JUST closed on a '13 SV+ premium for 11.6K (+ taxes DMV). It has 20K miles on it. I have looking hard past couple of days and this is the best I could find.

The dealer I bought it from is a small mom n pop dealer and he was coming back from an auction this morning. He showed me his paper on which he had scribbled 'his' prices for various cars and ALL of them sold for at least 1.5K above that. He also mentioned that market had gone hotter in just past 2-3 weeks, it was much easier 1-2 months back. he also mentioned that even the Nissan dealership was now buying cars at the auction whereas they had passed on them earlier.

Dont really know what it means but I would like feedback on how did I do? This will be my first EV and I started off with a budget of 10K.

-AM

redLEAF said:

... although I would still hope to get in under the 'free' battery replacement at some point down the road; only have a bit over a year so perhaps not, we'll see. ...

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Extremely unlikely in Chicago with only a year and haven't lost the first bar, unless you have a really hot garage.
I've lost three bars and have seven months left and unlikely I will qualify.

TimLee said:

redLEAF said:

... although I would still hope to get in under the 'free' battery replacement at some point down the road; only have a bit over a year so perhaps not, we'll see. ...

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Extremely unlikely in Chicago with only a year and haven't lost the first bar, unless you have a really hot garage.
I've lost three bars and have seven months left and unlikely I will qualify.

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Yes, it seems like the more moderate your climate, the less likely it will degrade quickly enough to warrant a replacement -- my tandem (4-car) garage is attached to my house and for the most part is never all that hot in the summer nor too cold in the winter. Obviously it will sit outside in the heat during work days but we get very few high-heat days anyway.

I think the depreciation of the Leaf is actually a great thing in order to encourage adoption of EV's. I bought my 2012 SL last month (w/ 10k miles) for $10800. I would have never bought an EV had it not been so cheap... and now a lot of my ICE buddies are actually considering purchasing a Leaf after they've driven mine. As far as I'm concerned, the more EV's on the road the better... and a downward push on used prices will accomplish that. It's already leading to a better recharging infrastructure (even here in Texas I'm seeing L2's popup in smaller, traditionally truck owner towns).

How does a poor residual help get more EVs on the road? You showed how a low price helps USED cars become available to more people, but re-selling a used car does not in itself put more cars on the road. Worse yet, a poor residual may deter people from buying EVs new, which is exactly how more cars get put on the road.

I'm sorry, but I don't agree that this is a valid "silver lining" to the low residual seen by today's Leafs.

GetOffYourGas said:

How does a poor residual help get more EVs on the road? You showed how a low price helps USED cars become available to more people, but re-selling a used car does not in itself put more cars on the road. Worse yet, a poor residual may deter people from buying EVs new, which is exactly how more cars get put on the road.

I'm sorry, but I don't agree that this is a valid "silver lining" to the low residual seen by today's Leafs.

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Well, I personally feel that most people who have purchased EVs will never, ever go back to gasoline. They've seen the benefits of an EV and like them. They've seen the drawbacks of an EV and are, for the most part, willing to live with them. So I too feel like folks selling out of a 3-5 year old Nissan LEAF will, eventually, lead to more EVs on the road. It might be a bit soon for this to be a "trend" yet - there aren't enough logical choices otherwise for those outside of key EV markets (or even for those of us INSIDE key EV markets, for that matter), but mark my words it will be so! :mrgreen:

It may actually put more EVs on the road if you think longer term. The low resale is allowing younger, less affluent buyers into the EV world. Their friends and families are asking tons of questions and watching to see "how it turns out".

My young daughter bought a Leaf after we discussed the pros and cons at length. I've watched her answer many questions on social media. People are curious. Many think of EVs as futuristic and fantasy for them. But when they see one of their peers actually loving the experience it gets them curious. This is where the next wave of demand will come from.

Roostre said:

It may actually put more EVs on the road if you think longer term. The low resale is allowing younger, less affluent buyers into the EV world. Their friends and families are asking tons of questions and watching to see "how it turns out".

My young daughter bought a Leaf after we discussed the pros and cons at length. I've watched her answer many questions on social media. People are curious. Many think of EVs as futuristic and fantasy for them. But when they see one of their peers actually loving the experience it gets them curious. This is where the next wave of demand will come from.

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I couldn't agree more. Since I've had my SL, I've had three of my muscle car re-builder buddies laugh at me, then test drive it, and are now considering buying an electric. You all have to remember that even though this tech has been around for years and you all are used to it, it feels like driving a silent spaceship to newbies. In just one month, I have 9 people seriously considering electric now that they don't see it as some abstract idea on tv. If it weren't for the tremendous depreciation of the Leaf, I never would have even of test drove the vehicle. Plus, anyone that buys a car for the potential resale value is naive to begin with. You're going to lose money on it... period. Even my 06 "phenomenal resale value" Honda w/ low miles brought me hardly anything in resale.

Valdemar said:

Who knows how desperate NMAC is in not wanting to see these Leafs ever again. With a super-aggressive incentive to keep the car many might just do that instead of turning it in.

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This is what I'm hoping for.

We leased a 12 at the end of 2012 and got a 36 month lease for 230/month.

We did extend for another year with 2 free payments making our effective payment under 200/month.

We have not lost a bar yet.

Next year I'd considering purchasing it if they offered me market value. That would be a huge discount from my residue.

If not I'd consider the same deal as I got this year... 2 or more free payments. It doesn't seem like they want the car back.