LEAF+ press release

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
OrientExpress said:
USA: 14.7K
Americas's: 3.5K
Europe: 40K
China: 37K (Sylphy and Venucia version)
Japan/Asia 25K

Total 120K Nissan LEAF/Variant BEVs sold in 2018.

Not too shabby, as that is more than the M3’s worldwide sales for 2018. It’s not by much, but still it shows that Nissan is more than capable in building a quality product, and rumors of its impending demise are exaggerated.

InsideEVs has calendar 2018 Model 3 US sales exceeding global Leaf (and variant) sales by nearly 20k units.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
 
Yeah, I saw that, but then again those numbers are speculative estimates, while these are based on actuals.

The one big takeaway here is that globally, the Model 3 and the LEAF are essentially at sales parity.
 
After Q4 of each year the numbers are no longer speculative; InsideEVs firms them up against annual production and delivery information from Tesla. These numbers are confirmed deliveries.

So the Leaf on sale in a dozen (more?) countries with two additional model variants was outsold quite dramatically in one country by a car that costs significantly more with no lease option or finance incentives and that spent the first half of the year trickling out of the factory. The bulk of 2018 Model 3 deliveries happened in the last five months of 2018.

If Tesla averages 5750 global deliveries per week in 2019 they’ll deliver nearly 300,000 Model 3s in addition to the pretty consistent 75-100k S/X global deliveries.

Not too shabby.
 
OrientExpress said:
Yeah, I saw that, but then again those numbers are speculative estimates, while these are based on actuals.

The one big takeaway here is that globally, the Model 3 and the LEAF are essentially at sales parity.
No, Nissan rather conveniently stopped counting in October 2018 :lol:

The real take-away is that Tesla is running away from Nissan in sales. Tesla sold in a couple months the volume it took Nissan years, and the gap is now growing fast and accelerating.
 
mtndrew1 said:
If Tesla averages 5750 global deliveries per week in 2019 they’ll deliver nearly 300,000 Model 3s in addition to the pretty consistent 75-100k S/X global deliveries.

Not too shabby.
Double that for Model 3.
I'm less sure about Model S and X
Add Model Y in 2020 and I'm pretty confident of one million sales a year in 2020

I agree; not too shabby
As for Nissan ? Well, they will continue to sell ~ 15k a year in the US at compliance car prices until the Federal tax credit lapses, then they will likely disappear from the US market. They seem to have a steady market in Japan but I expect their sales to dry up in Europe and China as the Chinese cut their sales on the cheap side and Tesla wipes them out on the higher-end car sales.
 
SageBrush said:
mtndrew1 said:
If Tesla averages 5750 global deliveries per week in 2019 they’ll deliver nearly 300,000 Model 3s in addition to the pretty consistent 75-100k S/X global deliveries.

Not too shabby.
Double that for Model 3.
I'm less sure about Model S and X
Add Model Y in 2020 and I'm pretty confident of one million sales a year in 2020

I agree; not too shabby
As for Nissan ? Well, they will continue to sell ~ 15k a year in the US at compliance car prices until the Federal tax credit lapses, then they will likely disappear from the US market. They seem to have a steady market in Japan but I expect their sales to dry up in Europe and China as the Chinese cut their sales on the cheap side and Tesla wipes them out on the higher-end car sales.

My theory for Nissan is that the ‘18 Leaf refresh was an unintended stopgap due to the alliance growing to include Mitsubishi.

I presume with three groups on board all needing a flexible EV architecture Nissan decided to slap some lipstick on the old Leaf and build a brand new highly flexible platform from the ground up to underpin diverse products from three brands. The ancient Leaf architecture carries through to ~2021 and then a proper architecture debuts as the real effort.

Then Ghosn got arrested and he was the alliance glue. So now what?
 
I would expect once Nissan experiences the US credit phase out, they will do the same thing as Tesla, and drop the MSRP accordingly. Then the LEAF will still be thousands cheaper than even the base model M3.

Things will get really interesting with the Model Y, Kona, Niro, Nissan EV CUV will be on the market at the same time in a couple years.
 
SageBrush said:
I understand NIssan's reluctance to give up on CHAdeMO in the Japanese market, but it is an albatross everywhere else.

I agree. There is a counter-argument that there are many Chademo chargers installed globally, but Nissan doesn't need to use just one standard worldwide: they produce cars separately on different continents. If they can make left-drive vs right-drive, then they can handle a different plug per continent. So the question for North America is: how many Chademo-only chargers are there in North America vs CCS-only in North America. And how is that number trending? I'd suspect that with the first round of Electrify America, there will already be more CCS-only.

With Nissan LEAF being the only Chademo BEV in production (and 22% of November's non-Tesla BEV sales), I don't see there being _any_ new Chademo-ONLY chargers being installed in North America (other than at Nissan dealers). It would not make any business sense to make a charger that could serve only 22% of potential customers. Similarly, no-one will replace or upgrade a Chademo-only charger without at-least making it dual-plug. So the trend is going to be downwards for Chademo-only in North America. And in every country except Japan.

There could still be a long period where most new commercial chargers are dual-port. But my guess is that there will be some market push-back, once drivers find they only have only one Chademo "pump" at each Electrify America station. They will also charge half as fast as everyone else, and if that pump is out of order, they could be stuck overnight charging with L2. I don't see Chademo availability "falling off a cliff," but I don't see any reason for it to grow, either. So I'm guessing that Nissan will eventually be forced to drop Chademo in the US, but is hanging on to it for now out of inertia and face-saving.
 
OrientExpress said:
CHAdeMO is still has the largest FC installed base worldwide, with over 20,000 systems online today.

It's perhaps a parochial point of view, but what matters to each is what is available to them in their area.

From my door, within about an 80 mile radius, the breakdown of fast charger locations is (according to Plugshare):

44 CHAdeMO
32 CCS
13 Supercharger

Locations aren't specifically a plug count, but my observation has been that in addition to sites that are CCS only, sites where there were once several CHAdeMO units, at least half (usually more) have been re-configured to CCS.
 
CHAdeMO:

Nissan Leaf
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Some Teslas with expensive adapter

CCS:

Audi
BMW
BYD (US)
Daimler-Benz
Ford
Freightliner
GM
Honda
Hyundai
Jaguar
Kia
Mini
Porsche
Tesla (EU Model 3)
VW

Electrify America looks like it’ll be the first nationwide supercharger-style network and it’s nearly all CCS.

Stick a fork in CHAdeMO, it’s done.
 
SageBrush said:
OrientExpress said:
Yeah, I saw that, but then again those numbers are speculative estimates, while these are based on actuals.

The one big takeaway here is that globally, the Model 3 and the LEAF are essentially at sales parity.
No, Nissan rather conveniently stopped counting in October 2018 :lol:

The real take-away is that Tesla is running away from Nissan in sales. Tesla sold in a couple months the volume it took Nissan years, and the gap is now growing fast and accelerating.

That is because he is comparing a global sales market for the Leaf to the US sales market for Tesla Model 3. Tesla has not started selling outside the US until just this week, and then in only a few markets to start out. Within a few months they are going to be selling 2x or 3x the Leaf sales rate.

Leaf is a fine product, but lets not pretend it is the market leader any longer. They once had the title, but Tesla has intercepted and running away with the ball at this point. I don't see the plus cars getting the leader title back in Nissan's hands. It is a nice improvement, but depending on the price may not do much. The way I see it, it is the car that we expected Nissan to make at this point and for about the price they are selling the non plus for. They really cant put a big price differential between them or they just wont sell. So either very little price difference and all sales go to the plus or they lower the price of the non plus cars. That might be a big win for Nissan.
 
As opposed to the the shill POV ?
Nissan has been signalling better (LG) cells and a TMS for two generations now but they cannot make the switch and hope to sell any cars at whatever price point they set for themselves; the cars end up too costly to make.

Tough situation to be in, and it is not going away.
 
SageBrush said:
As opposed the the shill POV ?
Nissan has been signalling better (LG) cells and a TMS for two generations now but they cannot make the switch and hope to sell any cars at whatever price point they set for themselves; the cars end up too costly to make.

Tough situation to be in, and it is not going away.

Exactly. The everyday driver is the force behind who is going to buy the cars. If we don't buy it, then what? It really is that simple.
 
SageBrush said:
As opposed the the shill POV ?

As in "Tesla shill"?

SageBrush said:
Nissan has been signalling better (LG) cells and a TMS for two generations now but they cannot make the switch and hope to sell any cars at whatever price point they set for themselves; the cars end up too costly to make.

Nissan says they are making money on the LEAF.

I so hope someone keeps building EVs without TMS systems. The TMS talk I've noticed all seemed to be rumors without sources.

I took a longer trip recently with 3 DCQC sessions. I usually limit my LEAF trips to one DCQC. Air temperature was about 5C. Battery got up to 30C. About 5C below where a TMS system might start to cool the battery.
 
OrientExpress said:
Yeah, I saw that, but then again those numbers are speculative estimates, while these are based on actuals.

The one big takeaway here is that globally, the Model 3 and the LEAF are essentially at sales parity.

You mean manufacturing limitations on Tesla's end. There is little doubt they could have a few more T3's had they the capacity to deliver them


On the topic; What does Nissan Energy bring to the LEAF?
 
WetEV said:
SageBrush said:
As opposed the the shill POV ?

As in "Tesla shill"?

SageBrush said:
Nissan has been signalling better (LG) cells and a TMS for two generations now but they cannot make the switch and hope to sell any cars at whatever price point they set for themselves; the cars end up too costly to make.

Nissan says they are making money on the LEAF.

I so hope someone keeps building EVs without TMS systems. The TMS talk I've noticed all seemed to be rumors without sources.

I took a longer trip recently with 3 DCQC sessions. I usually limit my LEAF trips to one DCQC. Air temperature was about 5C. Battery got up to 30C. About 5C below where a TMS system might start to cool the battery.

same here. With a lighter driving load and even lighter charging, my battery temps are in the low 50's most of the time. First charge (purely convenience and personal need) raised the temps to a blistering 62º. 2nd charge that was needed did get batteries to over 100º but by then we had done 200 miles and only charged as long as we did because we were eating.
 
Another factor, which should mean less degradation with the 62 kWh pack, is the typical depth of discharge (DoD).

For most people, the extra capacity will mean that they will very seldom discharge the pack by more than 20% - 25% between charging cycles. That translates to many more charging cycles over the life of the battery pack as compared to a 24 kWh pack where the DoD is much higher.

See this article, and table 2 in particular, for the correlation between DoD and the number of cycles over the life of the pack:

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/how_to_prolong_lithium_based_batteries
 
Back
Top