SageBrush
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:22 am

JeremyW wrote:
Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:42 pm
I've lived in six different MUDs in those 8 years. I found a way to charge in each of them. I also had workplace charging available at three different employers. But hey, I'm sure you'll move the goalposts, somehow.
Very few Apt renters want an EV so for now GRA is manufacturing a "problem." When that changes, MUD owners and workplaces will install EV charging. It really is that simple.

But sure, for giggles let's ignore the costs of fuel cell cars, their maintenance costs, their fueling costs, and just act like it is only a matter of fueling stations. Half the population already have charging at home, and another fraction have charging at work or where they shop. The better question then is how much does it cost to supply the remainder (when they want to purchase an EV) ? Well, it costs ~ 2M USD for one hydrogen fueling station that can supply two cars at a time. Practicality suggests a station should be within two miles of the car home or work location. How many MUDs can be incentivized to install EV charging ? I'll guess $2k USD is more than enough, so 1000 MUDS or workplaces per $2M. If each MUD or workplace services 10 EVs then 10,000 EVs. That works out to a marginal electric infrastructure cost of $200 per EV. Since ~ 2/3 of EVs have alternative arrangements already, we are talking about a national opportunity cost of 200/3 = $67 per EV to complete the transition to clean mobility via BEV.

Now lets compare to a retail hydrogen fueling build-out. For a start, I'll presume that CA would want to replace its fossil stations with hydrogen. They have 1E4 locations, so 1E4*$2E6 = $20 BILLION USD. If we figure 15E6 vehicles in CA then the cost is 2/15* E10*E-6 = $1,333 per vehicle. This is a vast under-estimate of cost because the average retail gasoline location has a much higher capacity than the above stated $2M hydrogen station. I'll guesstimate *at least* a 2:1 difference in capacity so now the H2 retail fueling locations cost is up to $2,666 per H2 car in a complete transition. But it is NOT a complete transition -- those 2/3 to 3/4 of the population who conveniently and cheaply drive EVs want nothing to do with funding H2 fueling stations so the cost for the GRAs of the country (presuming they are every non-BEV in the country) quadruples to at least $10,000 -- just to have refueling availability.

Insanity, you say ? It gets much worse. That ~ 1/4 of the car owning population who find BEV inconvenient are overall the least able money wise to fund the infrastructure but GRA would hang a $10,000 tax on them in order to refuel ... on top of the cost of the car and its fuel. All in the pursuit of using ~ 2.5x the electricity energy needed for equivalent BEV usage.
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WetEV
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:39 am

SageBrush wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:22 am
Very few Apt renters want an EV so for now GRA is manufacturing a "problem." When that changes, MUD owners will install EV charging. It really is that simple.
Mostly true.

New high end apartments are already providing charging for residents.

Consider that the outlet for charging is similar cost to an electric dryer hookup. Most apartments, other than the cheapest, provide washer and dryer hookup in the apartment. Many of the cheapest provide coin operated washer/dryers. The very very cheapest don't provide any of this. Or very very old/historic.

How does GRA wash and dry his shirts?

Long enough term, I'd expect most apartments to provide charging as part of rent, at least at the outlet level, with perhaps a charge for electric power. The cheaper ones will provide pay by the hour or kWh charging. Yes, there will be a few that don't get any charging or for that matter parking.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:56 pm

WetEV wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:39 am
SageBrush wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:22 am
GRA is manufacturing a "problem." When that changes, MUD owners will install EV charging. It really is that simple.
Mostly true.

New high end apartments are already providing charging for residents.

Consider that the outlet for charging is similar cost to an electric dryer hookup. Most apartments, other than the cheapest, provide washer and dryer hookup in the apartment. Many of the cheapest provide coin operated washer/dryers. The very very cheapest don't provide any of this. Or very very old/historic.

How does GRA wash and dry his shirts?

Long enough term, I'd expect most apartments to provide charging as part of rent, at least at the outlet level, with perhaps a charge for electric power. The cheaper ones will provide pay by the hour or kWh charging. Yes, there will be a few that don't get any charging or for that matter parking.

What's being ignored is the reason "Very few Apt renters want an EV (so) for now" - it's because they don't have anywhere to charge (price and range are the other major factors). Even here in the U.S., 40% of the population lives in MUDs. Elsewhere the percentage is higher. That lack of charging infrastructure is cited in every survey as one of the top three or four reasons people haven't gotten a PEV isn't manufacturing a problem, it's recognizing that it is one that must be solved before PEVs generally and BEVs especially will be acceptable to the majority of consumers.

As apartments, condos and townhomes tend to be located in urban areas where distances are shorter (and pollution's worse), PEVs are most potentially valuable to MUD dwellers, absent better urban design and high quality public transit. That the problem will eventually be solved in the long-term as new MUDs are built with charging isn't going to be adequate to solve the critical need in the short- and medium-term, as housing stock tends to last for a century, which is why we need QCs at places like grocery and drug stores, fast food restaurants, etc., and lots more L2 at workplaces where installing it tends to be less expensive, so that MUD dwellers can see PEVs as a practical option.

As to how I wash and dry my shirts, electric washing machine and a clothesline. I do share the washer and a (gas) dryer with the main house, although I don't use the latter, and in any case the dual outlet in the garage/laundry room is occupied by the L1 plugs for the washer and dryer. Charging from either would require an extension cord, as well as inconvenience on the part of both of us to plug and unplug, given our differing schedules. And since both are coin-operated, feeding money into one and losing it because it's unplugged would quickly lead to neighbor warfare. :roll: My other option is an L1 extension cord from my place out a door or window. not an option during the (gas) heating season.

Just to check my memory, I walked over last night to the one MUD in my neighborhood with a (dual) outdoor outlet. The apartment and its parking span the area between two side streets, so there's parking lots on both sides, 14 spaces one side and 7 on the other. 7 of the spaces are in carports with apartments over them, so if the spaces correspond to the apartments you could theoretically use an extension cord and charge L1, assuming you were willing to leave the window open during the heating season (gas, almost certainly). The one outlet is in one of the carports, and assuming it's wired as 20A total, you could charge 2 cars at a max. of 8A each, so at most 9 of 21 spaces, but really just 7.

The remaining spaces are too far away and SoL, as are all those cars which park on the street. And this is the MUD with the best[/b] charging opportunities in my neighborhood. The rest have essentially zero options, not even an extension cord out a window.

I haven't lived in an MUD for a couple of decades, but as a general rule you're limited to jury-rigged L1, and you're lucky if you've got that. Barring requiring landlords to undertake expensive retrofits for charging, which would be a political lead balloon even here at least for now, we can't afford to wait until new MUDs with charging facilities replace all the existing stock, so we need options to make ZEVs practical for all much sooner: lots more QCs and workplace L2s, and/or FCEVs. I don't see bio/synfuels playing a major role given their likely very limited production, but they'd obviously be easiest given existing infrastructure.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 7:41 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 4:56 pm
WetEV wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:39 am
New high end apartments are already providing charging for residents.
I haven't lived in an MUD for a couple of decades, but as a general rule you're limited to jury-rigged L1, and you're lucky if you've got that. Barring requiring landlords to undertake expensive retrofits for charging, which would be a political lead balloon even here at least for now, we can't afford to wait until new MUDs with charging facilities replace all the existing stock, so we need options to make ZEVs practical for all much sooner: lots more QCs and workplace L2s, and/or FCEVs. I don't see bio/synfuels playing a major role given their likely very limited production, but they'd obviously be easiest given existing infrastructure.
The world has changed.

https://www.plugshare.com/location/138970

https://www.plugshare.com/location/146905

(Coming soon) https://www.plugshare.com/location/207451

https://www.plugshare.com/location/253476

https://www.plugshare.com/location/265547

https://www.plugshare.com/location/265772

https://www.plugshare.com/location/162892

https://www.plugshare.com/location/221909

https://www.plugshare.com/location/47340

Sure, not a majority, Sure, more newer and higher end. But rather better than a jury-rigged L1.

Remember a real L1 is about as expensive as the plug for your washer.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:02 pm

Oh, and there is a "luxury apartment" complex with optional reserved EV charging spots somewhere in North Seattle. I used to know someone that lived there. And paid #150 a month for a reserved spot in a parking garage with a charger. That's only $50 more than a reserved spot without a charger.

A few more, found with just a DuckDuckGo search.

https://novoseattle.com/#amenities

https://www.equityapartments.com/seattl ... apartments

https://www.theolivianapts.com/amenities.aspx

This one has L1 charging in parts of the garage. Not ideal, for sure, but many people that's enough, or almost enough.

https://www.avaloncommunities.com/washi ... s-bellevue

https://www.udr.com/seattle-apartments/ ... amenities/

In 2014 this was a hard problem. Now, you got some options. In 10 years? I'd guess a majority, even without a mandate.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:51 pm

^^^ The world hasn't changed anywhere near quickly enough, given the scale of the problem. See
California Won’t Achieve Its New Zero-Emission Vehicle Goal Until Multi-Unit Dwellers Can Access Electric Vehicle Charging
for the scale required and problems involved:
. . . Roughly 90% of California’s chargers are located at homes overall, but as few as 18% are located at multi-unit dwellings (MUDs). Nearly 50% of Californians live in MUDs, meaning the state urgently needs policies to scale EV charging access to all residents. . . . .

But while California has the nation’s largest EV market, home charging access still drives many EV purchase or lease decisions. Equity is core to this challenge, as many MUD residents live in disadvantaged communities or at low- and moderate-income levels. Electric mobility solutions must reach all Californians, not just those with an easier path to EV adoption. . . .

Existing MUDs present unique EV charging challenges. Electrical upgrades at older MUDs can be costly, especially when they require trenching to lay wiring. Installing EV charging at existing MUDs can also trigger building code requirements in ways unrelated to EV charging, making a project financially infeasible, while utility interconnection approval can add cost and hassle.

In addition, property owners often get little to no return on EV charging investments, even if they are low cost, because those who pay utility bills are different from those who make capital investments. This split incentive complicates either party justifying the investment.


Many MUDs have assigned parking, making equal charging challenging without installing chargers at each parking stall – likely a cost-prohibitive option. Installing charging infrastructure in common areas or shared parking may be easier, but is less reliable if chargers are available on a first-come, first-served basis. Where space is limited, charging spaces might compete with parking spaces, partly because California differentiates parking spaces from charging spaces. As the state’s vehicle fleet converts to electric, this will become a larger sticking point as chargers are required in more spaces. . . .

Despite growing awareness of the need to serve MUD populations, consumer interest remains relatively low, and customers rarely consider the possibility of EV ownership without ready charging access. Other building improvements or repairs may also be higher priorities for residents or building managers, including those that save money, increase comfort, or improve indoor air quality. With limited budgets, EV chargers likely fall lower on the list of priority improvements. . . .

And so on. They propose solutions, but they won't be easy or quick.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Fri Dec 25, 2020 9:07 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:51 pm
^^^ The world hasn't changed anywhere near quickly enough, given the scale of the problem.
1% 2% 4% 8% 16% 32% 64% and to get to 100% we needed a lot of apartment charging. Each doubling taking 2-3 years. Oh, and probably slower than that due to the fact that it will take another decade or two to get most ICEs off the road.

L1 is probably good enough for most.

Sure, is an issue. Molehill sized. Not mountain sized.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:58 am

WetEV wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 9:07 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Dec 25, 2020 8:51 pm
^^^ The world hasn't changed anywhere near quickly enough, given the scale of the problem.
1% 2% 4% 8% 16% 32% 64% and to get to 100% we needed a lot of apartment charging. Each doubling taking 2-3 years. Oh, and probably slower than that due to the fact that it will take another decade or two to get most ICEs off the road.

L1 is probably good enough for most.

Sure, is an issue. Molehill sized. Not mountain sized.

If you consider providing home charging for almost half of California's population of nearly 40 million sometime in the next 15-30 years* to be a molehill-sized problem, allow me to offer you a great deal on the Golden Gate Bridge.


*The state plans to ban ICE sales in 2035, and we want to hit net-zero carbon by 2045. And of course there's the rest of the country as well.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:42 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:58 am
*The state plans to ban ICE sales in 2035,
This is only for new ICEVs in California, not existing used ones. I'm looking at the order now for the first time (https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploa ... limate.pdf on page 2).

Frankly, I don't think it's going to happen. It's too aggressive in too short a timeline. There will be too much pushback from many parties (e.g. oil companies, refiners, gas station owners, auto industry, electric utilities, general public esp those who can't charge at home and/or work, etc.) When it came out, I was too busy to dig into this much let alone comment.

I suspect it will be made a more achievable target (e.g. 50% of new passenger cars and trucks sold/leased in CA must be ZEVs by 2035) and/or the deadline will be pushed out further. The previous CA ZEV mandate (WAY before I was following any of this) that resulted in the GM EV1, gen 1 Rav4 EV, etc. got scaled down BIG time.

The H2 vehicle rollout in CA has been a joke. Look at Mirai numbers at https://gmauthority.com/blog/2020/12/ch ... r-2020-q3/. Clarity numbers there are muddied since it includes EV (discontinued), PHEV and FCEV numbers.

I found https://abcnews.go.com/Business/hydroge ... d=74583475 says "Honda has only sold 1,617 Clarity Fuel Cell vehicles in nearly four years and the company is "pursuing multiple ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) pathways" in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions, a spokesperson said."

Looks like there were about 2 million new light vehicle registrations in CA in 2019.

As for "providing home charging for almost half of California's population of nearly 40 million" or whatever, if you exclude those who are too young to drive, many able-bodied CA resident adults may not have an automobile. I have an uncle in my city who lives with two aunts. AFAIK, the aunts have no driver's license. A co-worker who lived in the city of SF (she moved to WA state) had no car. Her BF that she lived with had a car though. Another co-worker who lives in the city of SF also had no car until maybe a month or two ago. She recently began leasing some Audi SUV (Q5, I think, likely just an ICEV).

I had two former co-workers + another still working for us who lived in the city of SF. I have no idea if they could charge at home but they only had ICEVs that they usually never drove to work. They took free company shuttles to/from. If they had a long enough range EV, they could drive it to work and charge L2 charge at work for free. And, there's a Tesla 72 kW urban Supercharger site near work + plenty of Tesla and non-Tesla DC FCing choices between work and SF.

I graduated from a well-known university in California over 300 miles away. I had no car for most of the years I was there. There wasn't anywhere near enough parking on-campus for those living in on-campus housing. You had a better chance of getting a (costly) parking permit if you had an off-campus job or were say a junior or senior. Almost everyone living in on-campus housing had no car.

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Re: California retail H2 fuel stations

Sat Dec 26, 2020 7:05 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:58 am
If you consider providing home charging for almost half of California's population of nearly 40 million sometime in the next 15-30 years* to be a molehill-sized problem, allow me to offer you a great deal on the Golden Gate Bridge.


*The state plans to ban ICE sales in 2035, and we want to hit net-zero carbon by 2045. And of course there's the rest of the country as well.
Ever live some place very cold? Where plug-ins for car block heaters are common at apartments, grocery stores and such?

https://www.google.com/maps/@46.8605937 ... 312!8i6656

I know what those gray boxes are. I was plugging in in the 1970's. This is not a mountain sized problem.

As for a complete ban of ICE sales in 2035? Not realistic. Not because of urban apartment charging. Because of rural people.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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