GRA
Well-known member
WetEV said:GRA said:That's not the matter in questionWetEV said:Who would better understand the Model T future, an early adopter of automobiles or someone that counted on his horse?You might withdraw this statement. Rather than shoveling camels.GRA said:I claim that I'm more able to understand the general public's point of view than many early adopters, who've already made the change
Seeing as how every survey confirms my view of the general public's attitude, why would I withdraw it?
WetEV said:GRA said:Which we've never had a disagreement on, so why keep making the point?
You keep insisting that the mainstream is the only thing that matters. I assert that niche markets matter especially during technology change.
I insist that only the mainstream can have large enough effects to matter.
WetEV said:GRA said:See above for my point about when people are buying. I've never argued that a particular 'tech' may not be superior in a given niche, it's whether that niche matters to most potential customers.
"Most" isn't the goal at first. Getting a niche is.
Expanding the niche is next.
"Most" comes later.
I don't consider a decade of mass production, on top of another decade plus of a 'modern' BEV to be 'first'. We need to be well beyond the niche stage.
WetEV said:PHEVs are a different niche. More complex than a BEV or an ICE, more expensive than an ICE at the beginning, more expensive than a BEV eventually. Likely appeal is during the transition, and later for edge cases.
Or, they may be one of the ultimate choices, depending on how things work out with H2/FCs, and syn/biofuels. It's simply too early to say right now.
WetEV said:GRA said:As above, I've never disputed it. What I've said again and again is that BEVs currently lack the necessary properties to be mass market now, absent subsidies and/or mandates, and we have an acceptable interim tech that can move us towards the ultimate goal without requiring subsidies, given the right incentives.
PHEVs are subsidized now, removal of those subsidies would have large impact on their sales. You assure me you know exactly the incentives to replace those subsidies, expand the market to far bigger, and that those incentives are politically possible.
I doubt it.
I've listed the incentives that wouldbe more effective than the current ones, but I've always said that what's really needed in addition is to have a major effect is an increase in fuel taxes, either direct or on carbon. We know that's the one sure way to get people to switch.
WetEV said:GRA said:I don't need ABRP, Plugshare shows me there's still no way to get there using QCs. Why do you think I monitor the EA, and before them the SC networks so closely? Tesla's shown Kalispell as "Coming soon" every year since at least 2017 if not a year or two before, and I see they've moved it back yet again to 2022 now.
EA has no plans to expand that way either, and Glacier is just one of the places I want to go that it's difficult or impossible for me to reach using QCs; L2 doesn't cut it. That leaves aside the time factor, as until I retire all enroute time has to be subtracted from my free time.
Overnight L2 is pretty nice. Wake up to a full charge, do your day, repeat as needed. Why wouldn't you like this? Not at all difficult. Sure, infrastructure isn't universal. Yet.
https://www.plugshare.com/location/314313
To my surprise, a possible trip in the etron as well. I wouldn't suggest relying on a single charger, but an overnight L2 or PlanB L2 might be realistic. Not impossible. Not difficult.
That assumes that you wish to overnight where there's an L2 charger. They don't exist where I want to overnight. Nor, usually, is there any source of electricity. On my Bolt trip last October, since I couldn't activate the EA QCs in Bridgeport I had to use the free L2s in Lee Vining. I had to spend the entire night there, camping illegally in a public park, while the car took 8 hrs. 36 min. charging to 100%. Lee Vining is only at 6,780', but I'd intended to sleep between 8-9,000' to start acclimatizing, as I intended to climb peaks over 13,000 ft. the next few days. Because I couldn't, I experienced some mild altitude sickness. It would have been far worse if fire smoke hadn't prevented me from doing the planned climb that first day.