WetEV said:
GRA said:
WetEV said:
The world keeps changing. 2011 was 10 years ago. In 2011 the case for PHEVs was a lot better than now. To adjust to changing conditions, the calculations need to be revisited.
And in 5 to 10 years they'll be worth re-visiting, when we have much more solid numbers for the various options. You appear to have agreed with this, writing
Answer isn't knowable with current data, as far as I can see.
On a different subject. Not on today's calculations on the costs of QC with and without storage.
You were the one saying we should stay on topic. Which is it?
GRA said:
The issue with QC is demand charges, and that won't be solved until cheap energy storage is available.
John McCarthy said:
He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense
Here's an example of demand charges in his area provided by dgpcolorado a couple of months back:
The three phase demand rate is $47.25/month + 7.09¢/kWh + $17/kW demand charge (based on the maximum draw in any fifteen minute period in a month). This is likely the tariff that would be used for the DCFC station.
I expect that 800V+ packs will become the norm, which means the typical QC will be averaging say 200kW over a 15 minute period, with say 3-4 hours of near-continuous use during peak-demand. Now put 5 or 10 of them at a single road-trip site used simultaneously, to reflect Friday night or Sunday/Monday afternoon demand, with limited use the rest of the week. How much battery storage will you need, assuming you charge the pack off-peak the rest of the week? Assume $100/kWh Capex for the pack, and a five-year replacement cycle. Add BoS, construction, O&M, interest, overhead, profit, recycling costs etc. to taste, and show that you can sell charging for equal or less than the price of gas, something which, AFAICT, no charging network is able to do yet, at least if they have to build these stations with their own/borrowed money instead of government subsidies.
Oh, and most of these numbers will likely change a fair amount over the next few years, making any current guesstimate vague in the extreme, especially lacking proprietary info; as I said, GIGO applies.
Feel free to waste your time doing the math; I'm not about to waste mine. I did enough of that sort of calc when I was designing systems, and I was working with actual cost data of current equipment then, not projections/guesses for how things might be after X years.
Even then, I erred on the side of conservatism, as I had a much larger margin to work with than a commercial system intended to be profitable could have - 5¢/kWh either way was rarely an issue given that these systems were way off-grid; sometimes 25¢/kWh either way was no big deal. A commercial op may have to worry about costs to the nearest 0.1¢, if not the nearest mil, to be profitable. Do you think we're anywhere near being that close to being commercially viable yet in a scenario such as I've outlined above, when it comes to storage costs?