Bad news if you own your LEAF

[BraveLittleToaster]

I noticed that our dealer hasn't posted a newspaper add to sell a used Leaf for over a year. I then asked one of the sales people if they were having trouble getting rid of Leaf lease returns. They said absolutely not; that they sell right away on Craig's List. My wild guess is there may be an incentive for dealers not to have it known how cheap these returns actually sell for. I too noticed that the Kelly Blue book now gives a wholesale price for our Leaf as around $8k less that the lease values it at the end of our lease ... in about 11 months.

Like a sales guy would tell you if they were having trouble unloading them

Try finding a Leaf on Craigslist then. The cheapest one I found was a guy trying to sell his 2012 SL for the same price as our 2012 SV rolled off the lot at. Mind you, that was early in 2013 when Nissan was having a year-end sale to make way for the new 2013s, so we got a killer deal, but still...

People can start saying how awful the resale value of my car is at 5 years old, when any of them start getting sold at 5 years old. Until then, it's just hot air.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Is anybody really surprised?

Question: What's the #1 fear of people buying a Prius that was verbalized over the past decade?
Answer: "Won't I have to spend thousands replacing the battery?"

People are afraid of batteries dying because they know that every device they've ever owned has had the batteries get weaker over time. A Leaf with 30,000 miles has had a good 500 cycles worth of charge/discharge. Anybody buying it will keep this in mind. Nissan is in great part to blame for loss of value when it slashed prices on Leafs recently. That even by itself will murder resale on any used vehicle.

People can start saying how awful the resale value of my car is at 5 years old, when any of them start getting sold at 5 years old. Until then, it's just hot air.

Not entirely. Future states can be projected with some confidence based on current trends. If you look at the thread around here that has Leaf auction rates you can see that a used Leaf with 21k miles is currently averaging $14,500 at auction. This is why, when I go to cars.com and search for Leafs I see such ones as :

2013 S with 2k miles for $21,500
2012 with 7k miles for $19,900
2012 with 3k for $18,700
2011 SL with 14k for $16,990

Yeah there are ones more expensive, too, but cheap used Leafs are very accessible and they do exist right now.

 

[Valdemar]

A spike in gas prices should help with the resale value. Who knows if it is going to happen, but there hasn't been one for a while, so the chances are we are overdue?

 

[dhanson865]

Is anybody really surprised?

Question: What's the #1 fear of people buying a Prius that was verbalized over the past decade?
Answer: "Won't I have to spend thousands replacing the battery?"

People are afraid of batteries dying because they know that every device they've ever owned has had the batteries get weaker over time. A Leaf with 30,000 miles has had a good 500 cycles worth of charge/discharge. Anybody buying it will keep this in mind. Nissan is in great part to blame for loss of value when it slashed prices on Leafs recently. That even by itself will murder resale on any used vehicle.

People can start saying how awful the resale value of my car is at 5 years old, when any of them start getting sold at 5 years old. Until then, it's just hot air.

Not entirely. Future states can be projected with some confidence based on current trends. If you look at the thread around here that has Leaf auction rates you can see that a used Leaf with 21k miles is currently averaging $14,500 at auction. This is why, when I go to cars.com and search for Leafs I see such ones as :

2013 S with 2k miles for $21,500
2012 with 7k miles for $19,900
2012 with 3k for $18,700
2011 SL with 14k for $16,990

Yeah there are ones more expensive, too, but cheap used Leafs are very accessible and they do exist right now.

Those look expensive to me

http://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/searchresults.xhtml?zip=37923&endYear=2015&modelCode1=LEAF&showcaseOwnerId=64253063&startYear=1981&makeCode1=NISSAN&searchRadius=0&maxPrice=16000&mmt=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;[NISSAN[LEAF[]][]]&showcaseOwnerId=64253063&captureSearch=true&fromSIP=7C8C6C51437723D65D4BF96A8B007C9F&Log=0

$13,999 2011 Leaf SL 54,475 miles
$14,984 2011 Leaf 21,032 miles
$14,994 2011 Leaf 17,887 miles
$14,999 (4 different 2011 leafs in the 25,000 to 40,000 mile range)
$15,500 2011 Leaf SV 47,843 miles
$15,594 2011 Leaf SL 10,822 miles
and others with a total of 44 Nissan Leafs for sale under $16,000.

I fully expect those prices to drop as more and more used leafs are put on the market.

 

[Berlino]

Those look expensive to me

Used LEAFs seem to universally priced high. It's as if the sellers don't realize that the price for new LEAFs dropped over $6,000 last year.

However, isn't true that sellers always list ridiculously high prices for used ICE cars, but you have a lot of room to negotiate? Why would it be different for EV's?

I haven't shopped for an ICE vehicle for decades, so can't confirm.

 

[dhanson865]

Those look expensive to me

Used LEAFs seem to universally priced high. It's as if the sellers don't realize that the price for new LEAFs dropped over $6,000 last year.

However, isn't true that sellers always list ridiculously high prices for used ICE cars, but you have a lot of room to negotiate? Why would it be different for EV's?

I haven't shopped for an ICE vehicle for decades, so can't confirm.

and http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=230" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is a good place to look to see what kind of haggle room your have since auction prices are what the dealer paid for the car

average Dec (month) 2013 $13,404
average (week ending) Jan 29 2014 $13,596
average (week ending) Feb 10 2014 $13,200

estimated Mar 2014 $12,650

though they may have to sell for a loss they will try to avoid it.

 

[Berlino]

and http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=230" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is a good place to look to see what kind of haggle room your have since auction prices are what the dealer paid for the car

That's a good link. Let's say a LEAF comes off lease and belongs to NMAC. Is there any scenario where the dealer might sell it off his lot, but only acting as a middle-man for NMAC? Otherwise, I wonder if NMAC can get enough takers.

One option would be to ship used LEAFs to Canada to take advantage of the LEAF shortage and a potentially less EV-savvy public there.

Here's a current add for a 2011 SL with 19,800 miles. http://hamilton.kijiji.ca/c-cars-ve...ION-NAVIGATION-REAR-CAMERA-W0QQAdIdZ549356195

Taking into account tax and the current exchange rate, this comes to about $25,800 USD. Bear in mind that a brand new 2014 SV will go for about $30,400 USD with tax and the provincial $8,500 rebate included!!! However, the wait could be four months.

 

[Train]

Model S owners are going to take an even bigger hit come 5 years.

Salesperson: "I can give you...$17,000 for it."

Perplexed owner: "What?! I just paid $100,000 five years ago..."

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Model S owners are going to take an even bigger hit come 5 years.

Salesperson: "I can give you...$17,000 for it."

Perplexed owner: "What?! I just paid $100,000 five years ago..."

Yeah they probably will.

However, isn't true that sellers always list ridiculously high prices for used ICE cars, but you have a lot of room to negotiate? Why would it be different for EV's?

It wouldn't be. Ultimately anybody selling anything, if they absolutely do need to sell it, will keep lowering the price until it sells, be it a car or a house.

Some of those used leaf prices are great. Although original buyers of the Leaf have taken a truly awful wallop on their equity, buying one is not a bad idea at all used. Get it for $15k-16k and other than battery it's one of the most reliable cars on the road. As long as you believe you can tolerate its range when it has only 9 bars, you could drive it for a while and hope to lose that 4th bar, bringing you down to 8, then watch Nissan do something about it under the battery warranty.

 

[TimLee]

Do anyone have the last 5 digits of the VIN numbers just before the tsunami?

Mine is pre-tsunami at 2148. I would guess not more than 1000 more were built/delivered before the tsunami.

Mine, 2026, was built the day before the tsunami. Delivered to me May 17.
Factory builds are not sequential by VIN.
Impossible to know last VIN built before tsunami.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Model S owners are going to take an even bigger hit come 5 years.

Salesperson: "I can give you...$17,000 for it."

Perplexed owner: "What?! I just paid $100,000 five years ago..."

Resale value retention always gets quoted as a percentage. You can buy a new corolla, drive it for three years, then push it off a cliff and still come out ahead of the guy who bought a $100k car that retained 80% of it's value. But, you're driving a corolla

The financial impact is even more pronounced when you factor in the interest or other lost investment opportunity on the higher amount.

Hopefully people buying $100k cars are well-healed enough that blowing that kind of money is no big deal.

 

[johnrhansen]

Might be a good idea 5 years from now to buy that model s for 17,000. Even with the battery horribly degraded, it will still have more range than my leaf.

 

[davidcary]

Might be a good idea 5 years from now to buy that model s for 17,000. Even with the battery horribly degraded, it will still have more range than my leaf.

Good idea. Good luck finding a 5 year old Tesla for $17k. I think there will be years of pent up demand being satisfied for $40k decent range EV. That will be a 5 year old Tesla

 

[Elephanthead]

I am going to buy a used think city for $500 when my lease is up.

 

[dhanson865]

Might be a good idea 5 years from now to buy that model s for 17,000. Even with the battery horribly degraded, it will still have more range than my leaf.

Good idea. Good luck finding a 5 year old Tesla for $17k. I think there will be years of pent up demand being satisfied for $40k decent range EV. That will be a 5 year old Tesla

I think Model E Teslas will be undercutting the price on the used Model S by then. Shouldn't be that hard to get one of either.

The thing keeping the model S from ever being a $17k car is that Tesla is willing to sell you a new battery pack, so that model S will never have a bum pack, they'll just pop a fresh one in and keep driving it.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Just pop it in? Aren't they like S45k?

 

[Stoaty]

Just pop it in? Aren't they like S45k?

Yes, but for many owners of the model S this may be considered a "small expense".

 

[derkraut]

seems like a pretty significant "pop" to me. :roll:

 

[nosuchthing]

You just go to Tesla charging station and they swap it in 90 seconds. Haven't you seen the famous Elon Musk video? It happens faster than a fill-up.

And voila - new battery. Nissan, where are you?

 

[greenleaf]

You just go to Tesla charging station and they swap it in 90 seconds. Haven't you seen the famous Elon Musk video? It happens faster than a fill-up.

And voila - new battery. Nissan, where are you?

I think you are supposed to take back your pack on the way back. Otherwise, Tesla will charge you for the difference.