Battery Won't Last 100,000 Miles?

[SanDust]

I noticed this at the website Autoextremist in the "On The Table" section. One of the contributors went to AltCarExpo and gave his impression after driving various cars (he liked the Leaf). Fun read and not that different than the writeup from our own drivingelectric.blogspot. But here is what caught my eye:

Caveat about the whole event? The morning presentation by Nissan explaining that the battery pack in the Leaf will last less than 100k miles before replacing. They're expecting that of course there will be breakthroughs in technology that will allow stronger, faster, better ones to replace the old ones. Or that the old tech will be that much cheaper.

Did anyone catch the Nissan presentation? If so, did Nissan really say this? If not, what did they say?

 

[surfingslovak]

Here is a link to the editorial by Tom Pease:

http://www.autoextremist.com/on-the-table1/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[kmp647]

In the UK there have been nissan people saying 5 years at the average of 12,000 miles per year (what condition it will be in at that point or what that means ? )

I am not sure if we will make 100k or not , guess no one is.

 

[DarkStar]

Maybe 100k miles without any degradation... Just because something degrades, doesn't automatically mean it needs to be replaced.

 

[LeafinThePark]

Maybe 100k miles without any degradation... Just because something degrades, doesn't automatically mean it needs to be replaced.

Exactly.

Right now my son is 7yr old. I hope to get my Leaf around the time he turns 8. If I drive it 10-15k miles/year, it will have somewhere in the vicinity of 100k miles on it by the time he can drive. I'm think an EV with a 40-50 mile range left will be ideal for his first car.

 

[smkettner]

Time will tell. But if I can only get 25 miles range after 100k it will be a hard sell to stay with an electric vehicle depending on replacement options.

 

[surfingslovak]

But if I can only get 25 miles range after 100k it will be a hard sell to stay with an electric vehicle depending on replacement options.

I highly doubt it. Based on what I've seen, you would have to wait for a long time to see range reduction that's this drastic. The remaining question for me is how frequently will Nissan need to replace individual battery modules. There is a whole section for this in the service manual, and it looks like they anticipate this to be a relatively frequent occurrence? If a module starts underperforming, one could imagine that range will be severely impacted. Perhaps this scenario is what they alluded to in their presentation. One would also assume that if that were the case, underperforming modules will be replaced under warranty for eight years and 100K miles.

 

[thankyouOB]

what the surfer said.
In an ICE we would be buying gas, doing tune ups, changing oil, maybe a valve job in a bad circumstance, new head gasket.
It balances out in our favor.

For me, I am commuting 14k a year for the next 2 or 3 years, then my usage needs will fall with no regular commute.
This is the perfect geezer car.

 

[LakeLeaf]

The advice seen often on this board about leasing for 3 years and then deciding whether to turn it in or purchase it after seeing how much battery capacity is left, seems to be good advice - at least based solely on the information in this thread.

 

[SanDust]

What's puzzling is that this would be such big news that you'd think there would be some other reports. Seems like no one here heard the presentation. It would be interesting to know what Nissan thinks they said. I can imagine an honest engineer saying that in some extreme circumstances the battery might not last, but as a flat out rule of thumb it doesn't seem very likely.

 

[surfingslovak]

What's puzzling is that this would be such big news that you'd think there would be some other reports. Seems like no one here heard the presentation. It would be interesting to know what Nissan thinks they said. I can imagine an honest engineer saying that in some extreme circumstances the battery might not last, but as a flat out rule of thumb it doesn't seem very likely.

I'm not sure how much faith I'd put into Tom Pease's commentary. He seems to be known for snarky editorials. Personally, I don't think that Nissan has been handling this very well. Much like the guess-o-meter, their scripted presentations on this topic and the references in the owners manual are anxiety inducing, and I think they are missing the mark. Unless of course, the goal was to set low expectations and minimize liability.

 

[richard]

I noticed this at the website Autoextremist in the "On The Table" section. One of the contributors went to AltCarExpo and gave his impression after driving various cars (he liked the Leaf). Fun read and not that different than the writeup from our own drivingelectric.blogspot. But here is what caught my eye:

Caveat about the whole event? The morning presentation by Nissan explaining that the battery pack in the Leaf will last less than 100k miles before replacing. They're expecting that of course there will be breakthroughs in technology that will allow stronger, faster, better ones to replace the old ones. Or that the old tech will be that much cheaper.

Did anyone catch the Nissan presentation? If so, did Nissan really say this? If not, what did they say?

I did catch one of the presentations Saturday. Our presenter did in fact focus too much on possible degradation. I commented on this afterward to my wife. I didn't specifically hear the 100K figure being mentioned though.

Unless Nissan has learned something new lately, they should train their presenters better. As many have said before, you don't hear salesmen for conventional cars playing up noise, smell and other bad attributes of their cars.

Coincidentally, just before going to the Nissan booth, we were talking to a rep from LAcarGuy. He was showing the new VW Passat TDI, and he offered that a future model will be a diesel-electric hybrid. I asked if a plug-in would be available. He said that it would, but suggested we didn't want the batteries because they don't last and cost too much. I asked him to turn around to see the Volt driving by and asked him why he thought GM and Nissan thought otherwise about batteries. Sheesh.

Anyway, it's common among salesmen to bash the technology they don't have yet, until they get it. Sells more of what's on the lot today. But Nissan shouldn't be bashing batteries.

 

[abasile]

A couple of months ago, Nissan expressed their expectation that the pack would last the lifetime of the car, and that older packs will more likely be maintained by swapping modules/cells as needed: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=5048" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan has told us to expect plus or minus 80% remaining capacity after five years, but they've also given the figure 70%-80% after ten years, or eight years. I suspect they don't really know for sure, and are trying to manage expectations.

 

[charlestonleafer]

After 100k miles if the battery began to have issues, you wouldn't replace the entire battery. It was designed with individual modules that can be replaced, so you don't have to replace the entire battery. If/when you do need to replace some battery modules and it costs you a grand or 2, you would have easily spent that in maintaining an ICE. Not even considering fuel costs.

 

[Herm]

These are my ideas of worst case numbers.. someone who drives about 73 miles a day, 6 days a week.. and cycles the battery 100% every day.. assuming a life of 1000 cycles then that works out to 3.5 years and 73k miles.. more likely the life will be 1500 cycles then its 5.2 years and 109k miles. End-of-life is 80% remaining capacity or range, and then degradation accelerates unless you modify your usage. Acceleration is warranted by Nissan so you should not see it degrade for the term.

These are worst case numbers and I think the majority of drivers will easily double this. 1000-1500 cycles is fairly common to this lithium-ion chemistry.

I dont expect to see many module failures, unless Nissan did lousy quality control when they manufactured the cells, and it does not take much to mess up cells.

 

[kovalb]

Li-Ion battery capacity deterioration is going to be affected by multiple factors. It is likely there will be a wide range of deterioration rates for different cars. The main factors affecting Li-Ion battery capacity deterioration should be:
1. Battery temperature. Lower is better for life but worse for power.
2. Number of charging cycles. Fewer is better.
3. Depth of cycles. Less is better.
4. Amount of time at 100% charge. Less is better.

 

[LEAFfan]

But if I can only get 25 miles range after 100k it will be a hard sell to stay with an electric vehicle depending on replacement options.

I highly doubt it. Based on what I've seen, you would have to wait for a long time to see range reduction that's this drastic. The remaining question for me is how frequently will Nissan need to replace individual battery modules. There is a whole section for this in the service manual, and it looks like they anticipate this to be a relatively frequent occurrence? If a module starts underperforming, one could imagine that range will be severely impacted. Perhaps this scenario is what they alluded to in their presentation. One would also assume that if that were the case, underperforming modules will be replaced under warranty for eight years and 100K miles.

+1! Even though I'm leasing, if I see that they are replacing the modules year after year I may keep the car. I'm thinking they may have denser, lighter, modules by the time they need replaced.

 

[smkettner]

I have an idea that when nissan replaces a cell it will be a used item when available that matches the rest of the pack capacity.
I don't think nissan is going to keep throwing new cells into the pack.

I do wonder how low the car will allow the battery capacity to get 50%, 20%? When does it absolutely require a new battery?

 

[GPowers]

Li-Ion battery capacity deterioration is going to be affected by multiple factors. It is likely there will be a wide range of deterioration rates for different cars. The main factors affecting Li-Ion battery capacity deterioration should be:
1. Battery temperature. Lower is better for life but worse for power.
2. Number of charging cycles. Fewer is better.
3. Depth of cycles. Less is better.
4. Amount of time at 100% charge. Less is better.

So it sounds like you are better off charging 4 or 5 hours every other day instead of charging 2 or 3 hours every day?

 

[davewill]

So it sounds like you are better off charging 4 or 5 hours every other day instead of charging 2 or 3 hours every day?

If you can afford to do that, you'd be better off charging to 80% everyday, instead.