Can we ever "break even" with no battery replacement?

[smkettner]

Now that we know the cost of a new battery..... (perpetual $100 rental)
Can we ever break even on the original battery? How low will we need to run the battery down in capacity to get to the break even?

My primary option would have been to continue driving my F150 with all the gas and maintenance of a 180,000 mile truck.

Easily saving $250 per month in fuel and all in paid $25,250. That simplistic calculation inplys 101 months to break even or 8.5 years.
I am having doubts if range will be sufficient to drive for that length of time. As range gets under 50 miles I will start burning more and more gasoline.
Somewhere between 40 and 30 miles range I may need to give up the LEAF.

 

[davewill]

It's a flawed view of "break even". The correct comparison would be to another new car purchase.

 

[WetEV]

Can we ever break even on the original battery?

Take Juneau, Alaska as a best case example.

Electric rate (X1) is currently $0.058 per kWh.

http://www.aelp.com/Rates/ourrates.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gasoline price is currently $4.27 per gallon.

http://alaskagasprices.com/Safeway_Gas_Stations/Juneau/41458/index.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Battery life is estimated to 18.1 years to 70%. 216,000 miles.

At 12,500 miles a year, that is $1780 per year for gasoline vs $290 per year for electric power (30 MPG and 2.5 MPKWH). Plus $10 more maintenance a year in oil changes for the gas car, so I keep the math simple. Saves $1500 per year.

Leaf with no subsidy costs about $15,000 more than comparable gas car (ok, lots of difference of opinion here)

Assume interest rate of 0% and no inflation. Keeps the math simple. Positive interest rate will make the Leaf look worse. Inflation will make the Leaf look better. Gasoline increasing faster than inflation will make the Leaf look better. Probably should include climate change cost as well.

Leaf with no subsidy breaks even in 10 years compared with a new gas car. About the time it loses the first capacity bar. Battery lasts 18.1 years. Looks like a win to me.

Pacific Northwest, same thing, only less. Subsidy means that cooler areas and higher electric rates have a chance to break even. Arizona with the original battery, no way. Arizona with a leased battery is closer to break even... The lease is a good deal for them.

 

[ksnogas2112]

Third option...it's a car not a stock portfolio. We don't talk about RIO for ICE's. You don't wonder if your increased cost for that Ford Explorer grants you a return greater than your cost for a Chevy Aveo. You buy a car/truck/van to get you from point A to point B in a fashion that you desire. Anything and everything above that is gravy.

I will likely never drive enough to break even on the additional cost of electric over gas and that's fine with me. It would take about 20 years to break even on the solar panels I'm looking at (house faces EW not NS so doesn't have the best angles). When the car is paid off I will try to run for a year without a payment just to not have a payment for a while. The next car will definitely be a lease. I would rather have a perpetual $300/mo lease payment than a car payment+battery rental/lease.

<edit>
paid full sticker price on 6/23/12 as they were still effectively special orders here so no deals of any kind and no local incentives

 

[mwalsh]

Third option...it's a car not a stock portfolio. We don't talk about RIO for ICE's.

We do if it's a Kia!

 

[ksnogas2112]

Third option...it's a car not a stock portfolio. We don't talk about RIO for ICE's.

We do if it's a Kia!

<groan> i can't believe i had to stare at that for a minute before i got the joke. need either more sleep or more caffine

 

[dhanson865]

It's a flawed view of "break even". The correct comparison would be to another new car purchase.

That's a flawed view of car buying, some people are making the decision between buying a used Prius vs a used Leaf.

I know if I buy a used Prius with less than 50,000 miles on it I can drive it for another 100,000 miles with no major repairs (I'll have to do tires, wipers, filters, oil changes, rear shocks)

If I buy a used Leaf with 11 bars and less than 50,000 miles on it can I go 100,000 more miles over the next 8 years and not have to buy or lease a new battery?

I honestly see the Leaf and the Prius as luxurious enough to be a wash as to which I prefer on creature comforts. Heated seats is about the only luxury feature that I wouldn't get on a cheap used Prius.

So at that point the only thing I care about it cost to purchase and cost to operate.

Maybe by "we" you assumed that only included new car buyers? I know for sure there are plenty of users on this forum that have bought a used leaf and there are plenty that bought new instead of leasing and still consider this comparison relevant to themselves.

 

[thankyouOB]

when people talk to me about solar and tell me that it doesnt "pencil out" for them.
I say:
it pencils out for the earth.

so to for the LEAF: pay it forward.

though for an early adopter such as myself, who paid after various rebates and credits, 20k for the car and who drives on solar power, it is a very good deal.
Because of the LEAF, i do not buy some $2400 in gasoline each year; at today's rates and commute distance.

 

[davewill]

That's a flawed view of car buying, some people are making the decision between buying a used Prius vs a used Leaf. ...

From the amount he said he paid, it seemed obvious to me he was comparing keeping his old truck to buying a new LEAF, not a used one.

 

[Publius]

If you continue to drive a F-150 with 180,000 miles you're not only going to pay for gas but a replacement car in the time you will be driving the LEAF.

 

[ydnas7]

with new LEAFs on lease at $199/month breakeven is about compared to a gas bill of $200 per month. Most drivers of 6cyl vehicles and 12,000miles per year would be breakeven or better from day 1 with a new LEAF lease.

remember the 3 rules of LEAF buying
lease...lease...lease

 

[smkettner]

If you continue to drive a F-150 with 180,000 miles you're not only going to pay for gas but a replacement car in the time you will be driving the LEAF.

Probably a transmission at 250k, motor at 500k. Just spent $2500 on tune up, maintenance and new front leather. It is still a nice truck and will go for many years yet. If half done it would easily go another 12 years. That is longer than I expect the original LEAF battery to last. I think I will still own the truck after LEAF is traded off.

This may all be a grand experiment and I will just go back to the truck after I feel the I am even on the LEAF. If the battery can carry it that far.

Never break even on Tesla but that may still be the eventual LEAF replacement.

For those that had an economy car I can't imagine how LEAF battery would go long enough to break even.

 

[davewill]

... Never break even on Tesla but that may still be the eventual LEAF replacement.

For those that had an economy car I can't imagine how LEAF battery would go long enough to break even.

Dude, no new car purchase is going to stack up well against driving an old beater. The only reason your example even gets close is because the F150 gets such poor fuel economy. Also the Tesla isn't an automatic loser economically. It will probably hold its value better than the LEAF.

 

[Jbbrown9]

with new LEAFs on lease at $199/month breakeven is about compared to a gas bill of $200 per month. Most drivers of 6cyl vehicles and 12,000miles per year would be breakeven or better from day 1 with a new LEAF lease.

remember the 3 rules of LEAF buying
lease...lease...lease

Electricity is cheap, but not free (for most people). But, IMO, the easiest thing to forget which might have a big impact is insurance on a new car. We went from a 10 year old car with minimal coverage to a 0 year old car with everything. The net cost of that change is not $0 and needs to be factored in if you're trying to do a side-by-side comparison of monthly costs.

 

[tailgate1234]

Can we ever break even on the original battery?

Take Juneau, Alaska as a best case example.

Electric rate (X1) is currently $0.058 per kWh.

http://www.aelp.com/Rates/ourrates.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gasoline price is currently $4.27 per gallon.

http://alaskagasprices.com/Safeway_Gas_Stations/Juneau/41458/index.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Battery life is estimated to 18.1 years to 70%. 216,000 miles

Why is battery life so long in Alaska? Is this a Nissan estimate?

 

[SteveInSeattle]

There are an infinite number of possible comparisons-- and everyone has different criteria for selecting a car. Generally, a used car is cheaper to own and operate than a new car, an economy car is cheaper than a luxury car. If cost of ownership was the ONLY criteria, there are clearly cheaper choices than the Leaf. My daughter just sold a 5 year old Hyundai Accent with 50,000 miles for $5200. The buyer of that car will spend less over the next 50,000 miles than the cost of any new car. What's the "break even" on a Porsche Boxster? There is no meaning to that question. Now, if you want to arbitrarily pick a specific alternative, such as a Prius, then a comparison of total cost of ownership is a valid comparison, assuming all other things being equal and you want to own the cheaper of the two over an arbitrary period that you select. If you want a new car every 3 years, or 4 years, the numbers come out completely different. Edmunds.com does comparisons of cost of ownership that takes into account depreciation, gas mileage, cost and insurance, but again, very few people shop for price alone.

 

[mikefox]

I think Leaf with no subsidy breaks even in 10 years as compared with a new gas car since the Battery lasts 18.1 years.

 

[CMYK4Life]

I have never broke even on any car. I always pay pay pay. My expectations were not different with the Leaf.

 

[WetEV]

Can we ever break even on the original battery?

Take Juneau, Alaska as a best case example.

Electric rate (X1) is currently $0.058 per kWh.

http://www.aelp.com/Rates/ourrates.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gasoline price is currently $4.27 per gallon.

http://alaskagasprices.com/Safeway_Gas_Stations/Juneau/41458/index.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Battery life is estimated to 18.1 years to 70%. 216,000 miles

Why is battery life so long in Alaska? Is this a Nissan estimate?

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/wiki/index.php?title=Battery_Capacity_Loss#Battery_Aging_Model" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Desertstraw]

It's a flawed view of "break even". The correct comparison would be to another new car purchase.

That's a flawed view of car buying, some people are making the decision between buying a used Prius vs a used Leaf.

I know if I buy a used Prius with less than 50,000 miles on it I can drive it for another 100,000 miles with no major repairs (I'll have to do tires, wipers, filters, oil changes, rear shocks)

If I buy a used Leaf with 11 bars and less than 50,000 miles on it can I go 100,000 more miles over the next 8 years and not have to buy or lease a new battery?

I honestly see the Leaf and the Prius as luxurious enough to be a wash as to which I prefer on creature comforts. Heated seats is about the only luxury feature that I wouldn't get on a cheap used Prius.

So at that point the only thing I care about it cost to purchase and cost to operate.

Maybe by "we" you assumed that only included new car buyers? I know for sure there are plenty of users on this forum that have bought a used leaf and there are plenty that bought new instead of leasing and still consider this comparison relevant to themselves.

Lots of luck on driving a Prius another 100,000 miles with no major repairs, I needed a new battery pack at 110k. I also got stuck with about $2k because of the check engine light. Even with the help of "Toyota engineers" they couldn't diagnose the problem and just kept on replacing things until the light went out. The Prius is good for the 100k mile warranty, after that you are at the mercy of Toyota dealers.