Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

[WetEV]

While you continue to say 'no' to renewables

A serious case of not bothering to read what I write. How about you try again?

Right. Because using BS numbers and twisted logic to make renewables look expensive in this thread, while pushing for increased use of nuclear generation in other threads is actually designed to promote renewables. :lol:

I think that renewable power is the best long term choice for at least the first 60% of the energy requirements of society.


Storage costs money.

To go beyond what can be provided directly requires storage.

Therefore cost of renewable power will increase with increasing need for storage.

 

[RegGuheert]

I think that renewable power is the best long term choice for at least the first 60% of the energy requirements of society.


Storage costs money.

To go beyond what can be provided directly requires storage.

Therefore cost of renewable power will increase with increasing need for storage.

I agree with all that.

What I wonder, though, is if BEVs will progress to the point where they have sufficient capacity, cycle and calendar life and grid interactivity that they will provide sufficient storage to get renewables above 60% with only a small incremental investment. Even though transportation is a small fraction of overall usage, the batteries will certainly get both bigger and better. And they have the benefits of being distributed AND can charge and discharge at high rates.

I think this approach works particularly well for backing up wind energy since it is often a nighttime resource. The problem with backing up PV is that the discharge of the battery occurs at nighttime when the battery would ideally be charging. So for backing up PV resources, it seems you would need to have demand EV charging at the workplace to make it work out.

It seems to me a perfect marriage if these things would mature organically together, but, as AndyH points out, there is not much happening here in terms of interaction, yet. Germany is working the problem. Perhaps Tesla will again help to lead the way in this area in the U.S.

 

[AndyH]

Right. Because using BS numbers and twisted logic to make renewables look expensive in this thread, while pushing for increased use of nuclear generation in other threads is actually designed to promote renewables. :lol:

I think that renewable power is the best long term choice for at least the first 60% of the energy requirements of society.

Storage costs money.

To go beyond what can be provided directly requires storage.

Therefore cost of renewable power will increase with increasing need for storage.

Thanks for stating this. Why do you set an arbitrary level at 60% when there are multiple studies with real-world confirmation that 100% is not only possible but less expensive overall than the alternatives?

Of course storage costs money - but so does everything else. In the real world, even in a mixed renewable/fossil/nuclear grid, the price increases are much larger from the fossil and nuclear portions - even before a tsunami. And that completely ignores externalities and the societal costs of energy. I think that's very important - the price is not the be-all/end-all consideration - we need to include the cost as well!

So no - your simplistic 'someone has to buy a case of Duracells therefore renewables won't work' isn't a good line of reasoning.

 

[AndyH]

I agree with all that.

What I wonder, though, is if BEVs will progress to the point where they have sufficient capacity, cycle and calendar life and grid interactivity that they will provide sufficient storage to get renewables above 60% with only a small incremental investment. Even though transportation is a small fraction of overall usage, the batteries will certainly get both bigger and better. And they have the benefits of being distributed AND can charge and discharge at high rates.

I think this approach works particularly well for backing up wind energy since it is often a nighttime resource. The problem with backing up PV is that the discharge of the battery occurs at nighttime when the battery would ideally be charging. So for backing up PV resources, it seems you would need to have demand EV charging at the workplace to make it work out.

It seems to me a perfect marriage if these things would mature organically together, but, as AndyH points out, there is not much happening here in terms of interaction, yet. Germany is working the problem. Perhaps Tesla will again help to lead the way in this area in the U.S.

This has already been modeled, tested, and reported - 25% of the the EU vehicle fleet, if PHEV/BEV/FCHV and vehicle to grid capable, can supply ALL the storage and grid regulation required for the EU grid. Similar numbers have been suggested for the US grid. However, none of the analysts, researchers, or modelers have actually SUGGESTED that the grid should be based on that - because there are lower price storage options that provide win-win-win (multiple payouts versus just a single benefit) that will also be on-line.

We've talked a bit about this on the forum but it's been quite a while. University of Delaware was involved in a real-world V2G project in the 2008 time frame. I think there was at least one other V2G evaluation in the US but cannot Google-fu it today.
http://www.udel.edu/V2G/resources/test-v2g-in-pjm-jan09.pdf
http://www.udel.edu/udaily/2010/jan/v2g011910.html

 

[WetEV]

This has already been modeled, tested, and reported - 25% of the the EU vehicle fleet, if PHEV/BEV/FCHV and vehicle to grid capable, can supply ALL the storage and grid regulation required for the EU grid.

Sigh. How much would this shorten the life of your battery? How much would be a fair payment for letting the grid use your battery as storage?

One free clue for AndyH: This Is Not Free.

 

[AndyH]

This has already been modeled, tested, and reported - 25% of the the EU vehicle fleet, if PHEV/BEV/FCHV and vehicle to grid capable, can supply ALL the storage and grid regulation required for the EU grid.

Sigh. How much would this shorten the life of your battery? How much would be a fair payment for letting the grid use your battery as storage?

One free clue for AndyH: This Is Not Free.

Keep your clue, thanks - you'll need it. I don't recall saying free - that suggests there's no quid pro quo, yes? The reports from U Delaware have full accounting of costs - including wear and tear on the battery. Clue for WetEV - the wear and tear for grid support is smaller than the payment from the power company for services rendered.
http://www.udel.edu/V2G/docs/V2G-Cal-ExecSum.html

Seems that stationary batteries installed for emergency back-up power can double as cash flow machines as well.
http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2013_11_13_batteries_included

But perhaps most interestingly, the site will be using its integrated grid-connected storage to generate revenue by participating in the ancillary services market (primarily through the provision of frequency regulation, synchronized reserve, and volt-ampere reactive [VAR] compensation acquired on a cost-basis).

After all - the battery's going to degrade anyway - might as well get some yardage out if it, hmmm?

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/11/17/green-energy-grassroots-energy-germany/

Shulz, who was a student at the time of the anti-nuclear protests in the 1970s that served as a launched for the green energy movement, and later the Greens Party, is a part owner of six wind turbines, seven solar installations and two run of river hydro plants. The number of co-investors ranges from 10 to more than 500, depending on the installation.

This is typical of the country and one of the reasons why no party that got elected to parliament in the recent elections opposes the so called Energiewende, or energy transition. It is one of the driving forces of the policy. The major generators have been blindsided, to the point where the biggest of them, such as RWE, are considering abandoning their traditional business models and moving to a “value add” business that could assist the rising “pro-sumer” and a new market.

“Now you see farms starting to look at battery storage,” says Erhard Shulz, the founder of the locally based Innovation Academy, and my guide for the day. “Independence is very important. That is why the families came here 500 years ago, for independence from the Dutch. Now it is for independence from the nuclear and the fossil fuel companies. This is very important.”

You're welcome to keep believing that it won't work if you want - every kid's story needs an Eeyore. :lol:

 

[AndyH]

http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?p=14490

IWR: Renewable Surcharge to Increase Despite Fewer PV and Wind Power Input in First Three Quarters of 2013
...
At the same time electricity prices for industrial and other large electricity consumers continued to fall in September 2013, IWR pointed out referring to EEX data. Base load power cost on average 4.17 ct/kWh, a decrease of 6.6% compared with last year. For the whole first nine months the average price even fell by 12% to 3.79 ct/kWh.

http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?p=14514

It was a mistake to say a reform of the EEG was needed because the EEG resulted in high costs, SRU says, arguing electricity costs for household customers had doubled within the last decade mainly due to higher costs for fossil fuels.

http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?p=14825

The conservative CDU/CSU, the winners of the Federal Election of 22 September 2013, and the Social Democrats (SPD), who emerged second in the election, have presented a coalition agreement for a grand coalition in Germany that provides inter alia for a binding expansion corridor of 55% to 60% renewable energy by 2035.

Sorry Wet - looks like Germany's doing just fine with their falling electricity prices and continued divestment of nukes and fossils. 55% renewable energy by 2035 is an impressive goal indeed!

 

[AndyH]

YES! It's happening in the US as well! Tiny little bitty pockets of Energiewende right here in uber-progressive areas like...What? Denton, Texas?!

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/12/02/city-owned-texas-utility-already-serves-40-renewable-energy/

City-Owned Texas Utility Already Serves 40% Renewable Energy

Is having local control of a utility the key to ramping up renewable energy?

In 2011, Boulder citizens voted to have their city take over the electric utility, joining 1 in 7 Americans served by municipal electric utilities. Their feasibility study suggests they can more than double renewable energy on their system to over 50%, slashing greenhouse gas emissions. A study in Santa Fe, NM, suggests a similar increase (to 45% clean energy) is possible, while reducing electricity costs. Other cities, like Minneapolis, MN, are also studying the option.

Many of these communities are inspired by examples like Denton, TX, a municipal utility that already gets 40% of its power from renewable energy. The presentation to the Boulder city council is from Mike Grim, the head of the Denton city utility.

[Vimeo video at above link.]

Denton, Tx started their move to renewables in 2008 - moving away from 50% coal/50% gas to 40% wind, biogas and PV. Their last coal plant will be taken off-line in 2018. Their electric rates are below average and they haven't had a rate increase since 2005.

 

[WetEV]

City-Owned Texas Utility Already Serves 40% Renewable Energy

The first half is the cheapest.

 

[AndyH]

City-Owned Texas Utility Already Serves 40% Renewable Energy

The first half is the cheapest.

Feel free to support that belief with some data.

 

[WetEV]

The reports from U Delaware have full accounting of costs - including wear and tear on the battery. Clue for WetEV - the wear and tear for grid support is smaller than the payment from the power company for services rendered.

Yes, for grid stability, not for storage. You might want to fully read your references, not just skim for the quotes you want.

 

[AndyH]

The reports from U Delaware have full accounting of costs - including wear and tear on the battery. Clue for WetEV - the wear and tear for grid support is smaller than the payment from the power company for services rendered.

Yes, for grid stability, not for storage. You might want to fully read your references, not just skim for the quotes you want.

I did read them, thank you. The UD study was for V2G in today's grid with today's opportunities for cash flow. Besides, how exactly does one use a battery for grid stability without actually storing energy? :lol:

The more recent info from Europe provides info on storage - as do the US studies on storage. Like this one linked in the H2 thread:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/46719.pdf

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=332980#p332980
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=335083#p335083

Here's info from the field on hydrogen storage - from the CEO of a company that's DOING IT in Europe. It references due diligence performed for the Canadian market as well as the EU market, so this is location agnostic.

The only thing I draw your attention to this morning ... is on the right hand side you can see that at least a utility rate of return (ROI) is realizable across four different business models in using this power to gas solution. Whether it's for grid-scale, or biogas enhancement [electrolyzing hydrogen from excess wind and injecting it into the natural gas system rather than curtailing generation], or the wind-gas cooperative model that is being marketed today in Germany, or finally a captive wind to hydrogen fueling model that has already been talked about this morning. In each case we're showing a positive 12-15% return - this is basically the math that E.On and Enbridge did over the course of 14 months as they did due diligence on both the solution and our company in looking at business models for this application.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxidO4F8an4

Storage works. Batteries work. Hydrogen works. CAES and pumped hydro work. The myth of 'ya gotta have gas turbines ready to spin-up on a second's notice' has been exposed as a remnant of yesterday, not a requirement for tomorrow.

It doesn't matter that this newfangled energy/communications revolution is too much to understand right now - just sit back and watch as it's already happening.

My prediction? Revamping the grid into a collaborate peer to peer system just might eventually overlap with local currency and cryptocoin. Coal and nukes might not be the only dinosaurs added to a museum shelf.

 

[WetEV]

Storage works. Batteries work. Hydrogen works. CAES and pumped hydro work.

Yes, and they cost money. The first half is the cheapest.

 

[TimLee]

Storage works. Batteries work. Hydrogen works. CAES and pumped hydro work.

Yes, and they cost money.

And we have no idea how much, when both Nissan and Tesla refuse to disclose the cost of the EV battery, let alone any definitive data on how many cycles it can handle. So we have no real idea of the cost. Somewhere between $200 per kWh and $600 per kWh and cycle life of 1000 cycles to maybe 2000 cycles is pretty nebulous.
So it is a bit hard to see this zealous confidence in EV grid stabilization and storage for renewables being a proven solution.

 

[AndyH]

Storage works. Batteries work. Hydrogen works. CAES and pumped hydro work.

Yes, and they cost money.

And we have no idea how much, when both Nissan and Tesla refuse to disclose the cost of the EV battery, let alone any definitive data on how many cycles it can handle. So we have no real idea of the cost. Somewhere between $200 per kWh and $600 per kWh and cycle life of 1000 cycles to maybe 2000 cycles is pretty nebulous.
So it is a bit hard to see this zealous confidence in EV grid stabilization and storage for renewables being a proven solution.

Just because 'we' don't know doesn't mean Nissan, Tesla, BMW, Daimler, Honda, etc. don't know - that's a stretch, don'tcha think? The U Del study and on-going research is in conjunction with AC Propulsion, BMW and Honda - it's highly likely they know the cost of the batteries and the V2G inverters used. Ditto for the European.

The researchers couldn't have evaluated profit/loss numbers without pricing use of the battery, could they?

Yes, the initial paychecks delivered to EV owners are for grid stabilization services - but full-on storage is being evaluated as well. There's a full-on commercial system operating in Denmark. And don't forget that adding V2G grid stabilization not only allows rapid expansion of a TIR-complient peer-to-peer smart grid, but also reduces the need for gas-fired peaker plants.

http://insideevs.com/real-world-test-of-v2g-now-underway-in-spain-wvideos/
http://fleetowner.com/equipment/v2g-may-boost-roi-electric-trucks
http://www.lehigh.edu/engineering/news/events/ine/pdf/Fisher.pdf
http://www.nuvve.com/Home_Page.html

 

[TimLee]

Yes, the initial paychecks delivered to EV owners are for grid stabilization services - but full-on storage is being evaluated as well. There's a full-on commercial system operating in Denmark. And don't forget that adding V2G grid stabilization not only allows rapid expansion of a TIR-complient peer-to-peer smart grid, but also reduces the need for gas-fired peaker plants.

I don't disagree that the study had to use some $ for their analysis, and they may have had better cost data than the current EV owners have.

But why would any EV owner be willing to take on some payment for providing grid stabilization (or storage at some point in the future) if they have no idea what the cost is to them the EV owner for providing that service :?: :?: :?:

 

[AndyH]

Yes, the initial paychecks delivered to EV owners are for grid stabilization services - but full-on storage is being evaluated as well. There's a full-on commercial system operating in Denmark. And don't forget that adding V2G grid stabilization not only allows rapid expansion of a TIR-complient peer-to-peer smart grid, but also reduces the need for gas-fired peaker plants.

I don't disagree that the study had to use some $ for their analysis, and they may have had better cost data than the current EV owners have.

But why would any EV owner be willing to take on some payment for providing grid stabilization (or storage at some point in the future) if they have no idea what the cost is to them the EV owner for providing that service :?: :?: :?:

If you have data that show the vehicle owners involved in current V2G programs (like the 30 in Denmark, the trucks in California, the program in Spain, etc.) are being kept in the dark, please put it on the table. Thanks in advance.

 

[TimLee]

If you have data that show the vehicle owners involved in current V2G programs (like the 30 in Denmark, the trucks in California, the program in Spain, etc.) are being kept in the dark, please put it on the table. Thanks in advance.

Everyone is in the dark about the cost of the Nissan LEAF and Tesla battery, other than a limited few people in the two companies.

There are some people participating in V2G programs, that is true.
But they must be participating on some basis other than a financial analysis, such as wanting to further V2G or further aid to renewable generation sources, no matter what it is costing them.

Because if they're driving a LEAF or a Tesla S, they currently do not know what it is costing them in battery capacity degradation, and how much that will generate in maintenance cost.

 

[RegGuheert]

Because if they're driving a LEAF or a Tesla S, they currently do not know what it is costing them in battery capacity degradation, and how much that will generate in maintenance cost.

While I agree that is a big concern with today's battery technology, I am confident that at some point in the future the batteries will be robust enough and inexpensive enough that their use in V2G applications can be compensated for a reasonable fee.

What concerns me most is how to get the utilities to deploy such technology since they currently need to grow their generation capabilities to grow their revenues.

 

[AndyH]

If you have data that show the vehicle owners involved in current V2G programs (like the 30 in Denmark, the trucks in California, the program in Spain, etc.) are being kept in the dark, please put it on the table. Thanks in advance.

Everyone is in the dark about the cost of the Nissan LEAF and Tesla battery, other than a limited few people in the two companies.

There are some people participating in V2G programs, that is true.
But they must be participating on some basis other than a financial analysis, such as wanting to further V2G or further aid to renewable generation sources, no matter what it is costing them.

Because if they're driving a LEAF or a Tesla S, they currently do not know what it is costing them in battery capacity degradation, and how much that will generate in maintenance cost.

I think if you read your post again you'll realize that it doesn't make sense. There is simply not a chance on the face of this Earth that anyone operating a modern EV will be part of this type of development without knowing EXACTLY how much money they are putting on the table.

The links I provided (just a quick sampling of projects) show that one of the principle researchers from early University of Delaware V2G work founded a company to commercialize the capability, and is overseeing the 30-vehicle commercial fleet in Denmark. Commercial. For profit.

Our Vision: To serve the environment, society and national security while at the same time providing our investors with a superior financial return; Ensure smooth integration of large numbers of electric vehicles while benefiting the existing power grid. Lower electric costs; support emissions targets. Lower cost of EV ownership; integrate EV.

You'd also have seen that there's a fleet of V2G-capable electric delivery trucks working in California...

At the time, Camron Gorguinpour – special assistant to the assistant secretary of the Air Force for installations, environment and logistics – said the DOD expected to lease as many as 500 EVs at six different installations in 2013, with Los Angeles Air Force Base envisioned to be the first federal facility to replace everything from passenger sedans to shuttle buses with all-electric models.

The DOD said it expected not only to use all-electric cars and trucks to fulfill a variety of daily service tasks but also to use them when not in operation as “re-supply points” providing stability to stressed electrical grids at times of peak demand and, in the process, generating a financial return for the government.

...and a project in Spain using:

Zem2All’s fleet consists 200 electric vehicles – 160 Mitsubishi i-MiEVs and 40 Nissan LEAFs...This four-year vehicle-to-grid project has a budget of of €60 million and one of its objectives is to conduct real-world tests of vehicles charging mostly from renewable sources and returning power to the grid at times of peak demand.

If you have data to the contrary, I'd appreciate seeing it - I have no desire to be a disinformation vector.