Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

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AndyH said:
... There is simply not a chance on the face of this Earth that anyone operating a modern EV will be part of this type of development without knowing EXACTLY how much money they are putting on the table. ...
:? :? :?
How can anyone driving a LEAF or a Tesla S know EXACTLY how much money they are putting on the table by participating in V2G trials :?: :?: :?:
I can't prove they don't know, I just don't see how anyone other than a few people within Nissan and Tesla know EXACTLY how much they are putting on the table.
For them to EXACTLY know the V2G participants would have had to be made privy to some cost information that both Nissan and Tesla are currently completely unwilling to release.
I guess they could have signed an NDA, but seems very unlikely.
A truly silly claim.

I agree that at some point with lower EV battery cost and slower capacity degradation, V2G will make economic sense. But just because a few important V2G trials are under way, does not demonstrate that it is economically fiable at this point.
 
TimLee said:
AndyH said:
... There is simply not a chance on the face of this Earth that anyone operating a modern EV will be part of this type of development without knowing EXACTLY how much money they are putting on the table. ...
:? :? :?
How can anyone driving a LEAF or a Tesla S know EXACTLY how much money they are putting on the table by participating in V2G trials :?: :?: :?:
I have experience selling to small truck fleets and working with their maintenance folks to improve fleet efficiency. They know to the nearest 1/4 of cent per mile the effect of changing tire brands. There is not a chance that they will allow anyone to use their battery without knowing full well the cashflow ramifications. Just one example of how business works.

Your concern however is noted. While it's currently irrelevant, please let us know immediately if/when an alien overlord lands and forces EVers to connect to their mothership to power their trip home. If they don't tell you what it'll do to your Leaf's battery, we'll be sure to detonate the nuke we've stashed under their landing spot. :lol:
 
More proof that those that continue to promote the "more renewables = higher electricity prices" myth are factually impaired.

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/25517
http://awea.files.cms-plus.com/AWEA White Paper-Consumer Benefits final.pdf

Electric bills are trending down for people that live in high-wind states, according to research by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA).

The 11 states that get more than 7% of their electricity from wind energy have seen their electric prices decrease by 0.37% over the past five years, in contrast to all other states, where electricity prices have increased 7.79% during that time.

The 11 states are: Texas, Wyoming, Oregon, Oklahoma, Idaho, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Iowa.

Texas is on the verge of getting 10% of electricity from wind; Iowa and South Dakota already get 25%.

The more wind capacity they have, the more rates have come down.
 
AndyH said:
Your concern however is noted. While it's currently irrelevant, please let us know immediately if/when an alien overlord lands and forces EVers to connect to their mothership to power their trip home. If they don't tell you what it'll do to your Leaf's battery, we'll be sure to detonate the nuke we've stashed under their landing spot. :lol:
They won't tell us because it will be put into all charging stations: ;)
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/03/pnnl-20130306.html
 
Reddy said:
AndyH said:
Your concern however is noted. While it's currently irrelevant, please let us know immediately if/when an alien overlord lands and forces EVers to connect to their mothership to power their trip home. If they don't tell you what it'll do to your Leaf's battery, we'll be sure to detonate the nuke we've stashed under their landing spot. :lol:
They won't tell us because it will be put into all charging stations: ;)
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/03/pnnl-20130306.html
Nice article - thanks!

But to suggest that 'they won't tell you' also suggests one didn't know they bought a vehicle-to-grid capable EV (gotta have both pieces for the subterfuge to work, after all). Are EV owners really that stupid?
 
AndyH said:
More proof that those that continue to promote the "more renewables = higher electricity prices" myth are factually impaired.

The first kWh of renewable power, or even the first 50% of the power load is not the problem. It is the cost of the last kWh, or the last 10%. The tail gets very expensive.
 
WetEV said:
The first kWh of renewable power, or even the first 50% of the power load is not the problem. It is the cost of the last kWh, or the last 10%. The tail gets very expensive.
OK so lets get with the program and build that first 50% ASAP.

When that task is done then we can argue about how to do the next step.

How about this mix of renewables.
15% Solar PV
15% Wind
15% Geothermal
15% Hydroelectric

Yes I know thats 60% instead of 50% but what the.......
 
WetEV said:
AndyH said:
More proof that those that continue to promote the "more renewables = higher electricity prices" myth are factually impaired.

The first kWh of renewable power, or even the first 50% of the power load is not the problem. It is the cost of the last kWh, or the last 10%. The tail gets very expensive.
I think you know this, Wet, but "very expensive" is useless without a reference point - and begs the question: "compared to what?" Against what meter stick do you base your opinion?
 
AndyH said:
WetEV said:
The first kWh of renewable power, or even the first 50% of the power load is not the problem. It is the cost of the last kWh, or the last 10%. The tail gets very expensive.
I think you know this, Wet, but "very expensive" is useless without a reference point - and begs the question: "compared to what?" Against what meter stick do you base your opinion?

How about this meter stick: The first 90% of renewable power. The last 10% will cost much more than the first 90%, not per kWh, but in total.

To get the first 20% to 50%, no storage is needed, and renewable can be replacing the highest cost fossil fuel. A good goal, as KJD suggests.

To get to 90%, need to add storage that is cycled about daily to maybe once a week, and some renewable capacity is unused. Cost rises.

To get that last few percent, need to add renewable generation capacity that is only rarely used, and storage that cycles once a year.
 
WetEV said:
AndyH said:
WetEV said:
The first kWh of renewable power, or even the first 50% of the power load is not the problem. It is the cost of the last kWh, or the last 10%. The tail gets very expensive.
I think you know this, Wet, but "very expensive" is useless without a reference point - and begs the question: "compared to what?" Against what meter stick do you base your opinion?

How about this meter stick: The first 90% of renewable power. The last 10% will cost much more than the first 90%, not per kWh, but in total.

To get the first 20% to 50%, no storage is needed, and renewable can be replacing the highest cost fossil fuel. A good goal, as KJD suggests.

To get to 90%, need to add storage that is cycled about daily to maybe once a week, and some renewable capacity is unused. Cost rises.

To get that last few percent, need to add renewable generation capacity that is only rarely used, and storage that cycles once a year.
Without data it's just an opinion. I'm calling your opinion out as biased hogwash. In a nice way, of course. ;)

Link to something that supports your position or quit and get lunch, because I've already linked to professionals that say you are wrong.
 
AndyH said:
because I've already linked to professionals that say you are wrong.

Nice. Your sources make my point, if you bothered to read them. For example:

http://www.udel.edu/V2G/resources/test-v2g-in-pjm-jan09.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you read carefully, you might find out something about limits of Vehicle-to-Grid. And if not, follow a reference to the economics, like this one for example:

http://ver2009.inee.org.br/Downloads/KempTom-V2G-Fundamentals05.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Read carefully. Storage is a hard problem. If it was cheap and easy, it would already be widely implemented.

Regulation is a easier target, as it sells for much higher prices than power. Note, from the second source, that the economic calculations is based on 3% cycling of the vehicle's battery, and based on today's fossil power grid, not on a much more variable renewable power grid. 21 kWh in a Leaf could provide 630 Wh of regulation. Think about how long 630 Wh could provide for your night time energy usage... on a cold night.
 
WetEV said:
AndyH said:
because I've already linked to professionals that say you are wrong.

Nice. Your sources make my point, if you bothered to read them. For example:

http://www.udel.edu/V2G/resources/test-v2g-in-pjm-jan09.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If you read carefully, you might find out something about limits of Vehicle-to-Grid. And if not, follow a reference to the economics, like this one for example:

http://ver2009.inee.org.br/Downloads/KempTom-V2G-Fundamentals05.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Read carefully. Storage is a hard problem. If it was cheap and easy, it would already be widely implemented.

Regulation is a easier target, as it sells for much higher prices than power. Note, from the second source, that the economic calculations is based on 3% cycling of the vehicle's battery, and based on today's fossil power grid, not on a much more variable renewable power grid. 21 kWh in a Leaf could provide 630 Wh of regulation. Think about how long 630 Wh could provide for your night time energy usage... on a cold night.
You really love that link, don't you? Even though I've told you that I've read it, and even though it's well out of date, you like to keep moving it to the top of the stack. ;)

As for night time energy usage...let me think about that a minute or two. Since we're talking about electricity here, you must be suggesting that only electric heat is appropriate, right? Converting electricity to heat is about the least efficient way to stay warm on the planet! And 'regulation' is not the same as 'how long can we run the 1500W heater' is it? (About 14 hours from a Leaf battery if I accept your 21 kWh number.)

In the 1980s, my best friend in HS kept warm all winter long - a northern Michigan (upper peninsula) 7 month long winter - with only the electricity used to run a single circulation pump and a thermostat. The rooms had water filled radiators and the wood stove in the basement had water heating loops.

In a passive house (PassivHaus), one needs only minimal heat energy to maintain 68°F through zero degree nights. That single 1500W heater would do nicely as long as you didn't leave it on too long - otherwise the house would overheat.

I stayed in an Earthship in Taos in January - minus 15°F overnight and 35 during the day - didn't use a single Watt hour of electricity to warm the house. Not a single electron flowed to heat either the air, the floor, or hot water. 68°F first thing in the morning and 76 by late afternoon.

As I keep saying - and as you keep ignoring - we simply no longer need dinosaur thinking to live comfortably on this planet.
 
AndyH said:
As for night time energy usage...let me think about that a minute or two. Since we're talking about electricity here, you must be suggesting that only electric heat is appropriate, right? Converting electricity to heat is about the least efficient way to stay warm on the planet!

There is not enough biomass, and far too many other uses for it... Like food, shelter and raw materials.
Burning fossil fuel long term, as "Reinventing Fire" suggests we do, is a bad choice for climate future, even at the reduced level suggested. Short term, of course, we must.
More insulation and fewer and better windows can reduce the heat needed. But you still need heat, and energy for air exchange.
So what do you suggest?

AndyH said:
I stayed in an Earthship in Taos in January - minus 15°F overnight and 35 during the day - didn't use a single Watt hour of electricity to warm the house. Not a single electron flowed to heat either the air, the floor, or hot water. 68°F first thing in the morning and 76 by late afternoon.

Good design for Taos. For Sweden, not so good. Or anywhere in Northern Europe.

http://www.earthshipeurope.org/index.php/earthships/performance?showall=1&limitstart=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AndyH said:
As I keep saying - and as you keep ignoring - we simply no longer need dinosaur thinking to live comfortably on this planet.

The thing we need most is respect. Without that, no one is going to live comfortably. If we can't respect people that we disagree with, even people that we mostly agree with, then there will be no peace, no justice, no future.
 
WetEV said:
The thing we need most is respect. Without that, no one is going to live comfortably. If we can't respect people that we disagree with, even people that we mostly agree with, then there will be no peace, no justice, no future.
It's not YOU that I disagree with - it's your apparent insistence on supporting your position with lies and FUD. And there is zero in that process that demands respect.

Look at just one of your attempts to discredit fact - the Earthship page you pulled to support your false assertion is run by an entity misusing a business name and misrepresenting the buildings. It supports its smear job by suggesting that buildings must be tailored to the environment in which they are intended to operate. No **** Sherlock! Every single Earthship built is tailored to the environment and the local building code - and the building codes and norms are more of a problem than the environment (codes required compromising the builds in Europe - not the environment)! It's exactly the same for PassivHaus/Passive House - a house that excels in Alaska will fail miserably in San Antonio! How difficult a concept is this to understand? Same for biomass, liquid energy, energy storage, energy generation, etc - there is no 'one size fits all' solution! Anyone suggesting that there is or should be is an idiot. Period.

In addition, the European buildings were built as demonstration projects because local building councils no longer allow natural building in many areas - in spite of the fact that England is full of many hundred year old buildings made of 'cob' (mud, straw) and roofed with thatch. That's why the buildings are used as visitor centers, greenhouses or chicken coops - because the property owners are allowing their land to be used for these 'proof of concept' buildings. This is about politics and out of date rules, not about the performance of the buildings.

Your position and beliefs about this topic are just plain incorrect. Since you apparently have no desire to accept a full set of facts into your worldview then there really is no reason for you and to communicate further. The only reason I posted here to begin with was to mitigate the harm your statements may do to a future reader that IS looking for fact.
 
Evidence keeps piling up that, like it or not, we are headed for a future of distributed energy generation, where small generators are contributing the major portion of new energy on to an electrical grid that must become smarter, more flexible, and a two-way system.

The “hub and spoke” model, with small numbers of huge power plants supplying most of the energy, and smaller customers dependent on giant utilities or government agencies, is going the way of typewriters and landline phones.

Here’s a sobering thought for U.S. utilities and grid planners seeking solutions for a future filled with distributed, customer-owned energy assets: that future is already here.
http://www.midwestenergynews.com/2014/02/18/is-the-distributed-energy-future-already-here/

If this year’s DistribuTECH conference could be said to have had one overarching theme, it would be that the integrated, interoperable smart grid ecosystem, long promised but yet to be delivered, may be on the verge of becoming a reality.
http://www.greentechmedia.com/artic...-grid-to-everything-ecosystem-at-distributech

Welcome to the Third Industrial Revolution. Old-thought no longer applies.
 
WetEV said:
AndyH said:
As for night time energy usage...let me think about that a minute or two. Since we're talking about electricity here, you must be suggesting that only electric heat is appropriate, right? Converting electricity to heat is about the least efficient way to stay warm on the planet!
There is not enough biomass, and far too many other uses for it... Like food, shelter and raw materials.
There's plenty of biomass - and the stuff just keeps growing. Not enough for what? Raw materials for what? Get one use out of it or three? The question and assumptions matter.

One of the tenents of Permaculture is to get more than one use from everything. Example - one can grow hay, compost it, and use it in a farm field. Or one can grow hay, feed it to cattle, and spread the manure on the farm field. Or we can grow hay, feed it to cattle, process the manure in an anerobic digester, and spread the effluent on the the farm field. Each set of choices gives us a fertile field for the next hay cutting, but some choices give us much more from that hay - including milk, meat, a warm house and hot water.

WetEV said:
Burning fossil fuel long term, as "Reinventing Fire" suggests we do, is a bad choice for climate future, even at the reduced level suggested. Short term, of course, we must.
I agree - yet the move from current practices to the reinventing fire plan where coal, oil, and 75% of natural gas use goes away is a very good start. The Third Industrial Revolution plan is carbon free, as are other option. We CAN do better with no new tech, but we need the will. I can only directly affect my own. ;)

WetEV said:
More insulation and fewer and better windows can reduce the heat needed. But you still need heat, and energy for air exchange.
More insulation and better windows is a start but we can do much, much better than that. The energy for air exchange doesn't need to come from electricity or combustion, though it can. Depends on assumptions as well.
WetEV said:
So what do you suggest?
Suggestions depend on the question, application, location, available local raw materials, etc. I know I use Earthships as a 'far end of the yardstick' example - yet the buildings work all over the world and are made from mostly local and carbon-neutral or carbon negative materials so it's not just a 'net zero' example.

The sun entering an Earthship greenhouse heats that room, heats the main house, provides grow lighting in the greenhouse and full room lighting throughout the house. The angle of the glass allows more light and heat in during the winter and less during the summer. The warmer greenhouse floor heats air which exits through the overhead skylights. That end of the 'thermosiphon' draws fresh air through the intake vents in the north wall of the building - air is cooled as it passes through cooler ground. Fresh air year round with no burning or electricity or fans. This is also used in some passive houses - earth cooling tubes, a heat recovery ventilator, etc.
WetEV said:
AndyH said:
I stayed in an Earthship in Taos in January - minus 15°F overnight and 35 during the day - didn't use a single Watt hour of electricity to warm the house. Not a single electron flowed to heat either the air, the floor, or hot water. 68°F first thing in the morning and 76 by late afternoon.
Good design for Taos. For Sweden, not so good. Or anywhere in Northern Europe.
Good design for Taos. Also for Lasqueti Island, NW of Seattle, east Texas, central Georgia, Vermont, upstate NY, Wyoming. Passive solar design does need some insolation. Thankfully the majority of people on the planet don't live near the Arctic circle.

WetEV said:
http://www.earthshipeurope.org/index.php/earthships/performance?showall=1&limitstart=
I read through this site and agree with some of their findings. Too many of the comments however show they really don't understand the 'back story' for many of these buildings. Most of these were demonstration or public test buildings because local building rules don't allow a building to be off-grid or off sewer or etc. Our political/social systems have evolved to the point that only the status quo is allowed in too many areas. When I see the word 'Earthship' I see a group of overarching goals - the Global is only one model Earthship. The building going up in the Philippians is different from a Global model which is different from the buildings in India or China. One of the biggest takeaways from all of the European demonstration builds is that they were not allowed to build their buildings - they were forced to compromise in order to make the local politicians happy.

Another example is the claim that there's no data collection or study. The building I rented in Taos was full of sensors. The data were used to trigger design adjustments and to confirm building performance in temperate areas of the planet.
http://anzasca.net/2012papers/papers/p62.pdf http://www.ibpsa.org/proceedings/BS2013/p_1137.pdf
http://www.earthshipironbank.com.au/research.html

I'm holding it up as an example that can work well for a majority of the places on the planet, but no, I wouldn't build one in Antarctica either. PassivHaus works beautifully in the exceptionally cold areas and can be adapted to work on the equator as well. There are plenty of options for low or zero energy housing that use 0-15% of the energy of traditional buildings. Applying as many of the known efficiency improvements as possible as quickly as possible make a dramatic difference in our number one GHG emitters - our buildings - and completely changes the problem of phasing out fossil fuels.
 
Wet - how does this info change your numbers and/or perception?

deuspv.jpg


http://www.rmi.org/PDF_reducing_solar_pv_soft_costs
 
AndyH said:
Wet - how does this info change your numbers and/or perception?

Bothering to read what I write? Eh?

Here, I'll try again.

Storage costs. Solar and wind capacity costs.

The higher percentage from solar and wind, the more storage is required.

The higher percentage from solar and wind, the more capacity is idle.

With me so far?
 
Just found this, all from AWEA and pro-wind, but I doubt they would publish lies:

http://aweablog.org/blog/post/news-...egration-is-easy-wind-and-solar-work-together
[The report is] about the integration of solar and wind – what it calls variable renewable energy, or VRE – into new and existing grids. And it serves to completely debunk some of the other nonsense about renewables needing “back-up” fossil fuels, and adding huge costs to infrastructure.
The IEA could not be any clearer: “No additional dispatchable capacity ever needs to be built because VRE is in the system. On the contrary, to the extent of the capacity credit of VRE, its addition to the system reduces the need for other capacity.”
[T]here are system benefits that might outweigh the cost of generation of wind and solar and so lower the overall cost of the grid.
Another interesting read, although only talks about up to 30% wind:
http://aweablog.org/blog/post/indep...cally-reduces-pollution-and-costs-is-reliable

Finally: http://aweablog.org/blog/post/news-...he-iowa-wind-boom-austin-energy-leads-the-way
I find it hard to believe that any new fossil fuel power plant will sign a 18 yr PPA at around $0.03/kWh
The contract with Lincoln Renewable Energy calls for Austin Energy to buy the wind power for 18 years for $31 million per year. The price range is between $26/MWh and $36/MWh, which Austin Energy says makes it the least expensive wind purchase the utility has ever had
 
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